Stock Market News: Dow Set for Slight Rebound
U.S. stock futures rose Friday, bouncing after days of weakness and the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s worst day in more than a year. Looming in the day ahead is the key U.S. jobs report, which should advance the dominant market narrative around the outlook for inflation and interest rates that has so worried investors.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 60 points, or 0.2%, after the index plunged 530 points on Thursday to finish at 38,596—capping the worst four-day stretch for the index in terms of point losses since March 2023. S&P 500 futures gained 0.3% with contracts tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq up 0.3%. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note ticked above 4.33%.
Stocks tumbled Thursday amid continued anxieties that persistent inflation will stop the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates as soon as once thought—a selloff that was exacerbated by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Oil prices have spiked to their highest levels since late 2023 amid worries of an escalation of the Israel-Hamas war that involves Iran, adding to worries about inflationary pressures.
“The market remains highly sensitive to any indication that the data dependent Fed may need to curtail a rate easing cycle this year,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.
While markets have steadied into Friday, the day ahead could significantly advance the narrative over inflation—and therefore the pathway for rates—with the U.S. jobs report and key nonfarm payrolls figure due for release. Economists expect the U.S. economy to have gained 200,000 jobs in March, down from 275,000 in February.
“The market is pricing in just over a 60% chance of a rate cut in June, so a weak jobs report could move the Fed much closer to a cut at that meeting,” said Rob Swanke, a strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network. “This still gives the Fed time to absorb a few more data points from jobs and inflation before that meeting so a print that is well below the 200,000 average estimate likely won’t bring a cut into the May meeting.”