US stock futures split as the crosscurrents of a power shift in Washington, the war in Iran, earnings, and labor market data overlapped. Oil prices and Treasury yields fell, offering some upward support to stocks.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) rose 0.4% after the blue-chip index roared back on Wednesday following the US midterm election results. Meanwhile, futures on the S&P 500 (ES=F) fell 0.1% and contracts for the Nasdaq-100 (NQ=F) dropped 0.7%.
Oil prices continued their descent amid hopes that President Trump would pursue a deal with Iran to end the war in the Middle East. Optimism grew overnight after Vice President JD Vance said, “The reason we lost [the midterm elections] is the war,” in a post on X suggesting the party should push for a resolution to the conflict. Brent crude oil (BZ=F) prices declined to $94 per barrel, while US benchmark WTI crude (CL=F) dropped to $88 per barrel.
Initial jobless claims and a report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas will provide a fresh look at whether layoffs picked up in October, setting the scene for Friday’s key employment report.
On the earnings calendar, Duke Energy (DUK), Airbnb (ABNB), and Lumentum (LITE), among others, report results.
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Corporate earnings are growing like it’s 1984 — and that’s bad news for anyone waiting on lower rates
If you’re waiting for lower rates to buy a house, refinance, or pay down a credit card, corporate America may have bad news for you. Profits are growing so fast that one top economist says the economy could run at a pace last seen in 1984.
S&P 500 (^GSPC) earnings are up nearly 40% from a year ago, Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk wrote in a Nov. 3 note. The economy is growing much more slowly, up about 6% in nominal terms, before adjusting for inflation. Strip out inflation and real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter. (Disclosure: Yahoo is a portfolio company of funds managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management.)
By his math, “the current pace of earnings growth is consistent with nominal GDP growth of 10%,” Sløk wrote.
That would mean adding more than $3 trillion to a $33 trillion economy in a year. Outside the pandemic rebound of 2021-2022, the US hasn’t grown that fast since 1984, according to Yahoo Finance calculations from Commerce Department data.
US nominal GDP, percent change from a year earlier, quarterly, 1980 through Q3 2026 ·US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Apollo, Yahoo Finance
Layoffs are muted and companies are expanding seasonal hiring plans: Challenger
Yahoo Finance’s Claire Boston reports:
Layoff plans in October fell to the lowest level since 2023 as companies turned their attention to retaining existing employees and adding seasonal help ahead of the holidays.
US employers announced 43,994 job cuts in October, up slightly from September but down 71% from a year earlier, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Job cuts have been muted this year as the labor market stays in “low hire, low fire” mode. Announced cuts in the first 10 months of the year are at their lowest level since 2022.
“This is a low-fire environment,” Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer at Challenger, said in a statement. “Employers are holding on to the workers they have heading into the holidays, and the hiring they are announcing is largely short-term, seasonal work. Companies want the flexibility to meet holiday demand without adding permanent headcount.”
Oil falls for a fourth day on expectations for lower risk of Iran war escalation
Reuters reports:
Oil prices fell for a fourth day on Thursday on expectations the losses US President Donald Trump’s Republican Party suffered in Congressional elections this week may reduce the risk of further escalation of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Brent futures fell 80 cents, or 0.85% to $93.82 a barrel as of 0426 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $1.2, or 1.36%, to $86.92.
Both benchmarks tumbled by more than 8% in the previous session to settle at their lowest since August 31.
A weakened Trump, facing a Democratic Congress able to constrain his military options, has greater incentive to seek a deal, two sources close to Gulf government circles said on Wednesday. A full-scale assault on Iran now looks less likely, they said.
A resolution to the conflict could restore oil flows from the Middle East impacted by the war, though analysts caution the way forward remains uncertain.
Earnings calendar: Toyota Motor Corporation (TM), ConocoPhillips (COP), Sony Group (SONY), Parker-Hannifin (PH), The Southern Company (SO), Cloudflare (NET), Duke Energy (DUK), Airbnb (ABNB), Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST), EOG Resources (EOG), National Grid (NGG), Cigna (CI), Lumentum (LITE), Simon Property Group (SPG)
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