Stock Market Today (LIVE): Futures Flat After Record Closes as Nvidia Tops $5 Trillion and Fed Meeting, Big Tech Earnings Take Center Stage

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Meta Abandons Open Source for AI Profits

9:20 am — META -0.8% in pre-market trading

Meta (META 1.05%) faces a critical narrative shift during Wednesday’s earnings call as CEO Mark Zuckerberg pivots from open-source altruism to a commercial AI offensive. The company recently debuted Muse Spark, its first closed-source model designed to compete directly with paid services from Google (GOOG 0.51%) and OpenAI. While Meta AI currently trails Anthropic’s Claude in coding, it leads GPT in vision and text performance. Analysts expect Q1 revenue to jump 31% to $55.6 billion, but the spotlight remains on how this new model will monetize beyond advertising. With capital expenditures projected to hit $135 billion, investors are seeking a concrete roadmap to justify Meta’s massive infrastructure spend and recent 10% workforce reduction.

• Top-Tier Talent Raid: Zuckerberg’s $14.3 billion investment in Scale AI and the hiring of former GitHub CEO Nat Friedman signal an aggressive rebuild of the internal AI stack to bridge the gap with market leaders.
• Ad Revenue Multiplier: While vision models are currently secondary to text in hype, analysts believe Meta’s superior image generation tools will unlock near-term ad budgets by automating high-performing creative for millions of advertisers.

Opening Bell

9:35 am — NVDA -2.9%, AVGO -3.9%, ORCL -4.8%, KO +5.2%, SHW +0.3%

Equity futures slipped Tuesday as a report of slowing revenue growth at OpenAI ignited fears of a broader artificial intelligence slowdown. The news hammered chipmakers, sending Nvidia (NVDA 2.76%) and Broadcom (AVGO 3.67%) lower, while Oracle (ORCL 4.09%) dropped 7% on concerns over future computing contract payments. Geopolitical tension added further pressure as President Trump canceled an envoy trip to Pakistan, stalling Iran ceasefire talks and sending Brent crude above $112. Despite the tech rout, the Dow found support from strong earnings beats by Coca-Cola (KO +5.02%) and Sherwin-Williams (SHW 0.47%), highlighting a stark divide between resilient blue-chips and overextended tech valuations ahead of “Magnificent Seven” reports.

OpenAI Miss Sparks Sharpest AI Selloff in Months

8:05 am — ORCL -7.40%, AMD -6.03%, CRWV -7.51% in pre-market trading

The “AI complex” faced its sharpest sell-off in months Tuesday after a Wall Street Journal report revealed OpenAI missed critical internal targets for revenue and user growth. SoftBank (SFTBY 7.44%) shares plummeted 10% in Tokyo, while Oracle (ORCL 4.09%) and AMD (AMD 3.40%) slid as much as 7% premarket, as investors questioned if AI returns can justify a projected $600 billion in data center commitments. According to the report, OpenAI failed to reach its year-end goal of 1 billion weekly active users for ChatGPT, while CFO Sarah Friar reportedly expressed private concerns that the firm may struggle to fund future computing contracts if sales don’t accelerate.

• The Competitive Squeeze: OpenAI’s market share in generative web traffic reportedly dropped to 64.5% in January, down from over 80% a year ago, as Alphabet‘s (GOOG 0.51%) Gemini and Anthropic’s Claude 3.5 Sonnet dominate the coding and enterprise sectors.
• Capex vs. Cash Burn: Despite internal friction over spending, CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar issued a joint statement to Reuters on Tuesday saying they are “totally aligned” on buying as much compute as possible, even as the firm expects to burn through $25 billion in cash this fiscal year.

ARM Holdings Tumbles as AI Rally Cools

8:00 am — ARM -6.92% in pre-market trading

Arm Holdings (ARM 8.06%) shares fell approximately 8% yesterday (and are down again in pre-market trading) as the worst Nasdaq-100 performer, with investors taking profits following a steep AI-driven rally that saw the stock surge over 50% since early April.

• Sectorwide semiconductor pullback: Other AI chip stocks including AMD (AMD 3.40%) and Marvell (MRVL 3.85%) also declined, indicating broad cooling in semiconductor names rather than company-specific issues affecting ARM.
• Valuation concerns amplify selling: ARM’s high earnings multiple after recent gains prompted profit-taking, while investor concerns about competition and rich valuations following the AI rally contributed to the decline.

Arm Holdings

Today’s Change

(-8.06%) $-18.93

Current Price

$215.88

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$229B

Day’s Range

$210.00 – $227.30

52wk Range

$100.02 – $237.68

Volume

993K

Avg Vol

7.4M

Gross Margin

94.84%

This Morning’s Breakfast News

7:30 am — SPOT -7.63% in pre-market trading

Spotify (SPOT 14.74%) fell over 9% ahead of the market open as results showed ad-supported revenue decreased by 5% year over year, with concerns about growth for the coming quarter. Revenue grew by 10% year over year, reflecting a 9% subscriber growth rate.

• Q2 profit guidance below expectations: The outlook for operating income and premium subscriber growth for the coming quarter disappointed investors, signaling slowing growth in major markets such as the U.S.
• “All of our KPIs met or exceeded guidance”: Headline revenue came in line with guidance, with activation tools including advanced AI-powered personalization in beta launch and mobile free tier enhancements driving accelerated user growth.

Micron, SanDisk Hit Highs on AI Memory Crunch

6:00 am — MU -1.63%, SNDK -1.48% in pre-market trading

The artificial intelligence arms race has triggered a “memory supercycle,” sending shares of Micron (MU 2.40%) and SanDisk (SNDK +8.11%) to historic highs as the industry grapples with a structural shortage. Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes upgraded Micron on Monday, citing the “unusual durability” of AI-driven demand that could sustain this cycle through 2030. Micron’s market cap is now closing in on $600 billion, while SanDisk has seen an astronomical 3,190% gain over the last 12 months. The frenzy is driven by the extreme requirement for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and enterprise-grade NAND storage, which are essential for Nvidia (NVDA 2.76%) and AMD (AMD 3.40%) to power next-generation data centers.

• The Consumer Tax: As manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix prioritize high-margin HBM for AI, general-purpose DRAM supply has cratered. Analysts warn this will push PC prices up by 17% this year, with SSDs already costing triple their December 2025 prices.
• Locking in Supply: The supply crunch is so severe that hyperscalers and firms like Broadcom (AVGO 3.67%) are abandoning traditional quarterly deals in favor of 5-year supply agreements to secure their 2028 allocations.

Today’s Change

(8.11%) $80.30

Current Price

$1070.20

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$158B

Day’s Range

$1008.88 – $1070.66

52wk Range

$31.01 – $1070.66

Volume

857K

Avg Vol

19M

Gross Margin

34.81%

ICYMI: Monday’s Scoreboard

5:15 am — PLTR -0.15% in pre-market trading

Palantir (PLTR 0.57%) was the subject of the latest Scoreboard video.

Bitcoin Surges to $79K on Hormuz Deal News

5:00 am — BTC -4.31%

Bitcoin (BTC 2.00%) hit a 12-week high of $79,488 on Monday as traders reacted to reports that Iran has proposed a new deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The “risk-on” sentiment was short-lived, however, as the token retreated toward $77,000 after President Trump signaled skepticism regarding the offer. Despite the volatility, April has been a landmark month for institutional adoption; Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR 2.98%) has purchased a record $4.1 billion in Bitcoin this month, including a fresh $255 million acquisition last week funded by common stock sales. With spot Bitcoin ETFs on pace to double their March inflows to $5 billion, the market is now testing major technical resistance as it awaits the Federal Reserve’s final rate decision under the Powell era.

• The $80,000 Breakeven: Analyst Rachael Lucas of BTC Markets noted that $80,000 represents a critical psychological level where many recent buyers approach breakeven, leading to significant “profit-taking” sell pressure.
• Corporate Treasury Shift: Strategy now holds 818,334 BTC–valued at over $63 billion–surpassing BlackRock‘s (BLK +1.14%) client holdings and solidifying its position as the world’s largest corporate holder.

AI Brain Drain Hits Google and Meta Hard

4:05 am — META unchanged, GOOG +0.47% in pre-market trading

A massive “brain drain” from Silicon Valley titans is minting a new class of AI unicorns as top researchers exit Alphabet (GOOG 0.51%) and Meta (META 1.05%) to launch independent labs. Former Google DeepMind star David Silver just secured a record-breaking $1.1 billion seed round for his start-up, Ineffable Intelligence, while former Meta AI chief Yann LeCun’s AMI Labs recently closed a $1 billion raise. This exodus is creating a vacuum at the tech giants, who are increasingly narrowing their focus to win the immediate LLM race. Investors are aggressively filling that void, funneling hundreds of millions into nimble ventures that deprioritize raw scale in favor of “agentic” architectures and vertical models that Big Tech has sidelined.

• Architectural Arbitrage: Startups like Recursive Superintelligence are attracting capital by exploring non-transformer architectures that Meta and Google have deprioritized to focus on their core Gemini and Llama products.
• The Talent Premium: These new labs are using their massive war chests to poach high-level engineers from OpenAI and Anthropic, offering equity upside that established trillion-dollar companies can no longer match.

Before the Opening Bell

4:00 am

U.S. stock futures were flat Tuesday morning as investors caught their breath after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both notched fresh record closes on Monday. The “Magnificent Seven” rally, led by Nvidia (NVDA 2.76%) crossing the $5 trillion market cap threshold, has pushed the S&P 500 to 7,173.91, but momentum is slowing ahead of a high-stakes Federal Reserve meeting and a $16 trillion wave of Big Tech earnings. While Tehran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for ending the U.S. naval blockade, President Trump reportedly dismissed the offer because it postponed nuclear concessions.