Stock Market Today (LIVE): Intel Posts Sixth Straight Beat and Texas Instruments Hits a 25-Year High as the AI Trade Reaches Old Guard Semiconductors

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Opening Bell

9:35 am — INTC +25.0%

The S&P 500 edged higher Friday as optimism regarding imminent U.S.-Iran negotiations in Pakistan countered a week of broad market declines. While geopolitical tension persists in the Strait of Hormuz, investors are refocusing on a stellar semiconductor sector. Intel (INTC +22.93%) shares surged 24% after a dominant first-quarter beat and optimistic guidance, fueling a record-breaking 17-day winning streak for the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX +2.56%). Despite the tech boost, the Dow remains on track for a losing week as traders weigh “super normal” chip growth against the risks of a naval standoff.

• Crude Volatility Cooling: Oil prices retreated as West Texas Intermediate dipped toward $95 per barrel, signaling that energy markets are pricing in a potential diplomatic breakthrough in Islamabad.
• Narrowing Market Leadership: NewEdge Wealth analysts warn that the rally is becoming dangerously reliant on cyclical semiconductors, which are projected to deliver 100% earnings growth this year.

Which Eggs Should Go in Which Baskets

8:00 am

In his 1605 novel Don Quixote, Cervantes wrote, “It is the part of a wise man to keep himself today for tomorrow, and not to venture all his eggs in one basket.”

More than four centuries later, the phrase is still used to represent the value of diversification: Don’t put all your money in one investment or type of investment.

A modern spin on the phrase could go this way: Buy all kinds of eggs (investments) and have a few different types of baskets (accounts).

We at the Fool have recommended that investors own at least 25 stocks, and co-founder and CEO Tom Gardner recently increased that number to 50. Personally, I believe a diversified portfolio of low-cost index funds is also a good diversifying complement to a portfolio of individual stocks.

Deciding which investments to own is crucial. But another important consideration is in which types of accounts to own them.

This Morning’s Breakfast News

7:30 am — INTC +26.67% in pre-market trading

Intel (INTC +22.93%) soared 25% ahead of the market open after CEO Lip-Bu Tan praised the Team Hidden Gems recommendation’s ongoing pivot to AI, saying “this is a fundamentally different company today,” with results beating expectations and the financial outlook upgraded.

• “Focused on maximizing our factory network to improve available supply and meet our customers’ needs”: CFO David Zinsner explained high demand in areas such as data center processors means Intel is striving to quickly increase capacity to avoid disappointment.
• “The backbone of AI computing in production remains a CPU anchored architecture”: CEO Tan flagged “great news for Intel” for the future as more companies are deploying Intel’s CPUs as AI systems become more complex. This is one factor contributing to increasing next quarter’s revenue guidance from $13 billion to between $13.8 billion and $14.8 billion.

Top of the Morning

6:45 am

Have you run into the prediction markets recently?

If you’ve tried to log into your broker, it’s quite possible. I know as I log into my Interactive Broker account, I see a chance to make an “investment” on some prediction. Will the Fed raise interest rates at its next meeting? Yes or No?

I say “yes” (just for example) and put some money on the line. Maybe $0.60 for a single contract. If I’m right and the Fed does raise interest rates, I’ll make $0.40 as I get my investment back plus the cost paid from someone saying the opposite who lost (less a fee paid to the provider of that market).

The price I pay depends on how many others of the total are saying the same thing. The more people who say “yes”, the more expensive the investment becomes and the less the return is if you’re right. That’s how the odds are set. The companies offering this stand to make a lot of money. Recently, Kalshi and Polymarket together handled over $5 billion in weekly prediction market investments recently. Say they take a 2% cut. That’s $100 million in a week. There’s a lot of money involved.

Yet, this isn’t gambling. It’s a futures market. At least according to a recent ruling by a federal appeals court in New Jersey. And that has huge implications. If it holds, this kind of thing will be legal in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

There are some troublesome aspects about this, though.

4:00 am — MEDP -0.75% in pre-market trading

When Medpace Holdings (MEDP +2.54%) reported Q1-26 results after market close on Wednesday I knew that my topic for today was going to be discussing earnings. Let’s get to the results first before discussing some implications.

Results? Actually pretty good.

• Revenue was up 26.5% year-over-year, EBITDA up 25.9%, and Net income up 8.1%. That last one might seem disappointing, but last year saw an ultra-low effective tax rate (3%) while this year returned to a more normal level (upper teens).
• Despite those tax rate “variabilities”, earnings per share (EPS) were up 16.4% year-over-year, mainly because of the aggressive share buybacks Medpace did between Q4-24 and Q2-25 that shrank share count by 7.2% year-over-year.
• Also working against EPS growth pacing revenue growth is that revenue attributable to “reimbursed pass-through expenses” was elevated versus last year as expected. This quarter 44.2% of revenue was “reimbursed costs” versus 36.2% last year.
• Free cash flow of $145 million was up 25% versus last year, the cash pile on the debt-free balance sheet reaching nearly $653 million.
• New business awards were up nearly 24% year-over-year to $618.4 million.
• Management reaffirmed full-year guidance.

So – that all looks pretty great, why then did the stock price get obliterated by as much as 27% yesterday?

I believe the answer can be found on two fronts. First, and of the most importance is the “book-to-bill” ratio – new business awards divided by reported revenue. All else equal a book-to-bill above 1.0 foreshadows future growth and is greeted with much rejoicing by the market. A book-to-bill below 1.0 heralds future (near-term) revenue decline.

Rocket Lab Unveils Deep-Space Star Tracker

6:00 am — RKLB +1.30% in pre-market trading

Rocket Lab (RKLB 1.16%) is doubling down on its vertical integration strategy, unveiling a next-generation High-Performance Star Tracker (ST-HP) designed for extreme deep-space environments. The new sensor achieves pointing accuracy better than 1 arcsecond and features radiation hardening capable of withstanding 50 kRad, making it ideal for the long-duration missions increasingly demanded by defense and commercial constellations. The launch follows a “rapid-fire” week for the company, which saw its stock climb over 30% in April to roughly $85.70 after completing back-to-back missions for JAXA and closing its $155 million acquisition of laser-comms firm Mynaric.

• The Margin Multiplier: By manufacturing the ST-HP in-house alongside its reaction wheels and flight software, Rocket Lab aims to capture more “satellite real estate” and improve margins compared to pure-play launch rivals.
• Operational Velocity: The announcement coincided with the company’s eighth successful launch of 2026, keeping it on track for 20% year-over-year growth as it prepares for the debut of its larger Neutron rocket.

Rocket Lab

Today’s Change

(-1.16%) $-0.98

Current Price

$83.62

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$49B

Day’s Range

$83.20 – $86.41

52wk Range

$20.23 – $99.58

Volume

2.8M

Avg Vol

21M

Gross Margin

31.66%

ICYMI: Thursday’s Scoreboard

5:15 am — BLD unchanged in pre-market trading

TopBuild (BLD 1.36%) was the subject of the latest Scoreboard video.

Before the Opening Bell

5:00 am

Stock futures showed mixed momentum Friday after President Trump announced a three-week extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, providing a rare pocket of stability as the U.S.-Iran standoff continues. While the regional peace progress offered hope for stalled negotiations, the tech sector remained the primary engine for gains. Intel (INTC +22.93%) shares climbed after the chipmaker delivered its sixth consecutive earnings beat, with CEO Lip-Bu Tan highlighting a massive surge in demand for AI-centric CPUs. The upbeat mood followed a historic rally in Texas Instruments (TXN 2.59%), which saw its biggest jump in 25 years after crushing estimates, signaling that the “AI trade” is finally lifting legacy semiconductor names.

• Foundry and AI Focus: Intel’s Q1 revenue reached $13.6 billion, outperforming its own guidance by $1.4 billion as it scales “agentic AI” infrastructure to meet unprecedented silicon demand.
• Blue-Chip Friday: Investors are now parsing pre-market results from Procter & Gamble (PG +3.52%), which expects a volume recovery in beauty and home care, alongside healthcare giant HCA Healthcare (HCA 7.35%) and Norfolk Southern (NSC 0.81%).

Cannabis Stocks Slide Post-DOJ Order

4:30 am — TLRY -0.88%, CGC +0.82% in pre-market trading

The U.S. Department of Justice has officially reclassified cannabis to a less dangerous drug, a major shift in the country’s policy and a move that saw sharp volatility in related stocks including Tilray Brands (TLRY 2.81%) and Canopy Growth (CGC 2.87%).

• The move doesn’t legalise cannabis at a federal level: Cannabis will now be obtainable with a prescription, providing a boost for the $47 billion industry as access to funding and other benefits become obtainable, with more legal progress likely further down the line.
• Sector reaction is telling: After initially spiking on the news, marijuana stocks closed Thursday lower, with Tilray and Canopy Growth down over 11%, with a mix of “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news” action, along with a realization of a lengthy regulatory road still ahead.

Tilray Brands

Today’s Change

(-2.81%) $-0.20

Current Price

$6.75

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$809M

Day’s Range

$6.65 – $6.88

52wk Range

$3.51 – $23.20

Volume

2.5M

Avg Vol

4M

Gross Margin

23.71%