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Repairs to energy-linked infrastructure in the Middle East could cost up to $58 billion, with $50 billion in oil and gas-related repairs alone, the energy consultancy Rystad Energy said Wednesday morning.

In the seven weeks thus far of the so-called third Gulf war, air strikes and drones have damaged refineries, processing plants, pipelines, storage facilities, and other critical energy infrastructure. Rystad’s $58 billion repair bill estimate is more than double the $25 billion figure it published three weeks ago.

The primary constraint, however, is likely not to be capital but instead the availability of the smaller pool of equipment and contractors available to commence repairs, Rystad noted. Equipment and labor crews previously allocated to new build projects will have to be redirected, delaying timelines for new capacity, while those facilities needing damage will have to compete for the small pool of specialized labor available.

“This is no longer just a story about damaged facilities in the Gulf, it is a stress test for the global energy supply chain,” said Karan Satwani, a senior supply chain research analyst at Rystad.

The effects are unlikely to be felt evenly, Rystad noted. While facilities in more accessible countries with contractors readily available could start repairs within weeks, repairs on more complex facilities, such as Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, could take much longer to begin, as specialized parts, equipment, and labor are scarce.

“Repair work does not create new capacity, it redirects existing capacity, and that redirection will be felt in project delays and into inflation far beyond the Middle East,” Satwani said.

“The $58 billion bill is the headline, but the knock-on effects on energy investment timelines globally may prove just as significant.”