‘Super El Nino’ is coming: What it could mean for US food prices, power bills and economy
El Nino is strengthening rapidly, with more than a 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27, reported Reuters citing the US Climate Prediction Center forecast from September 10.
The forecast also puts the odds of an unusually powerful El Nino at a historic level. The Climate Prediction Center says there is a 69% chance during October-December 2026 that the event will exceed the strength of previous El Nino events dating back to 1950.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on September 3 that El Nino had become firmly established and would strengthen further in the coming months. Its latest forecast gave an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%” that the event would persist through February 2027.
The WMO expects El Nino to reach very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of 2026, with effects potentially continuing into 2027.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) has described the event as a potential “Super El Nino”. The agency said NOAA and other scientific agencies forecast the event to become very strong over the next two to nine months and that it could rank among the strongest El Nino events in more than 150 years.
But “Super El Nino” does not mean every part of the US will experience extreme weather. USGS stressed that a strong El Nino shifts the odds of certain weather patterns rather than guaranteeing them.
That distinction matters because the economic effects will vary sharply by region.
El Nino changes ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation, which can alter the path of the jet stream and the movement of weather systems across North America. Some areas could see more rain and storms, while others experience different temperature and precipitation patterns.
For Americans, those changes could show up through food prices, electricity demand, infrastructure costs and household spending.
What could happen to US food prices?
Agriculture is one of the biggest channels through which El Nino could affect the US economy.
USGS said a strong El Nino generally shifts the Pacific jet stream southward, sending more storms towards the southern United States. Southern and Central California, much of Arizona, southern Nevada and southeastern Utah often receive more precipitation during El Nino winters.
That could help drought-affected areas by improving water supplies and soil moisture. But heavier rainfall can also bring flooding, erosion and crop damage.
The South Central US faces similar risks. USGS said the stronger southward jet stream associated with the 2026-27 event could produce more frequent low-pressure systems across Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and New Mexico. Past El Nino events have brought flash and river flooding to parts of the region.
For farmers, therefore, the issue is not simply whether El Nino brings more or less rain. The timing, location and intensity of precipitation will determine whether the impact is beneficial or damaging.
The bigger food-price risk for American consumers could also come from overseas.
Reuters reported on August 18 that a very strong El Nino could disrupt tropical crops around the world. Coffee, cocoa and sugar could face supply problems in major producing regions.
Every strong El Nino over the previous 55 years had reduced cocoa output, according to investment firm WisdomTree, Reuters reported. The 2023-24 El Nino caused heavy rain followed by intense heat in West Africa, damaging cocoa production.
Coffee prices could also rise if weather reduces output in Vietnam and Indonesia, which together account for about half of global robusta coffee production, according to Reuters.
Sugar could face competing weather effects, with El Nino often bringing excessive rainfall to Brazil while reducing rainfall in India and Thailand.
For American consumers, the impact would come through global commodity markets. The US imports coffee and cocoa, so supply disruptions abroad can raise costs for American food and beverage companies even when domestic farms avoid major damage.
The US is already dealing with elevated prices in some food categories. USDA’s Economic Research Service said beef and veal prices were 9.4% higher in July 2026 than a year earlier, while fresh vegetable prices were 6.3% higher.
Those figures are not an El Nino forecast. They show the price environment consumers and food companies entered before the full effects of the new weather pattern emerge.
El Nino does not automatically mean a surge in US food prices. It adds another layer of weather risk to an already sensitive global food supply chain.
Could El Nino affect America’s electricity bills?
The second major channel is energy. El Nino can change temperatures and precipitation across different parts of the US, affecting both heating and cooling demand.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says the strongest US influence from El Nino usually occurs during winter, particularly from January through March. Its long-term climate guidance shows a typical pattern of cooler and wetter conditions across the southern tier of the country, while parts of the northern US tend to experience milder conditions.
But the pattern is not guaranteed. USGS has stressed that every El Nino event is different.
For the power sector, the impact will depend partly on how temperatures change demand for electricity and natural gas.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a May 28 report that US electricity demand rises sharply during summer because of cooling needs. It forecast natural gas consumption by the electric power sector at 43.7 billion cubic feet per day during June-September 2026 and expects natural gas use for power generation to rise to a record 46.1 billion cubic feet per day in summer 2027.
That forecast was made before the full strength of the current El Nino became clear, so it should not be treated as an El Nino-specific forecast.
A milder winter in some northern states could reduce heating demand and costs. At the same time, heavy storms in the South and along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts could damage infrastructure and disrupt electricity services.
USGS said the Southeast could see a greater chance of heavy precipitation, coastal storms and nor’easters during the 2026-27 winter. Saturated ground could also increase local flooding risks.
Texas and other South Central states could face heavy precipitation, high winds and flooding from stronger winter storms.
Water availability adds another variable. Additional precipitation can benefit hydropower in some regions, although excessive rainfall can also create operational problems.
S&P Global Market Intelligence said a Super El Nino could create three major economic transmission channels: agricultural disruption, energy-sector stress and logistics problems.
For American households, the result could therefore vary widely. Some consumers could benefit from lower heating demand, while others could face higher costs if storms damage infrastructure or unusual weather drives volatility in energy markets.
What does Super El Nino mean for the US economy?
The broader economic impact could come from the combination of food, energy and supply-chain pressures.
S&P Global Market Intelligence said a Super El Nino could act as a supply-side shock, creating higher global inflation from food and energy costs alongside weaker economic growth through the fourth quarter of 2027.
S&P Global described this as a “mild stagflationary impulse”. If weather pushes up food and energy prices, consumers have less money to spend elsewhere. Businesses also face higher input costs. At the same time, weaker agricultural production or disrupted logistics can reduce economic output.
That creates a difficult environment for policymakers. Higher inflation can argue for tighter monetary policy, while weaker growth can increase pressure for measures that support economic activity.
For consumers, the effects may emerge gradually rather than as one sudden economic shock.
A poor coffee harvest in Vietnam or Indonesia could push up coffee prices. Cocoa supply disruptions could raise chocolate costs. Problems in sugar-producing countries could affect food manufacturers.
Inside the US, heavy rainfall and storms could damage farms, roads, water systems and other infrastructure. Businesses could face higher repair, insurance and commodity costs, while transport companies could experience delays.
But the economic impact is not predetermined. USGS stated that past Super El Nino events differed significantly from one another, making direct comparisons difficult. The WMO has also warned that the strength of El Nino alone does not determine the severity of its effects in any particular region.
“The strength of an El Nino event does not translate directly into the magnitude of impacts in any region,” the WMO said in its September 3 update.
Other climate factors, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans, can modify the effects.
The WMO’s September-November 2026 outlook nevertheless forecasts above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas globally, alongside rainfall patterns associated with the strong Pacific El Nino.
The organisation said on September 3 that there was a nearly 100% probability that El Nino would persist through February 2027. It expects the event to strengthen further and reach very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of 2026.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the event could have a major effect on communities and economies.
“El Nino … has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,” Saulo said on September 3.
For the US, however, the key point is that there will not be one single economic impact. Some farmers could benefit from additional rain and improved water supplies. Milder winter temperatures could reduce heating demand in parts of the country.
Other regions could face flooding, severe storms or infrastructure damage, while American consumers could feel the global effects through imported commodities such as coffee, cocoa and sugar.
The 2026-27 El Nino is therefore a risk multiplier rather than a single nationwide economic shock.
The WMO expects the event to strengthen, while USGS expects major regional differences. Reuters has identified risks to global agricultural commodities, and S&P Global has warned about inflation and growth pressures.
However, the final economic impact will depend on where the strongest weather anomalies occur, how long they last and how global commodity markets respond.