Tech Stocks Rebound on SpaceX Earnings & Tesla Merger Hint! After-Hours Meta/Tesla Strong Earnings and Caution on 'Beat & Drop'

1. Understand in 3 lines! Today’s US Stock Summary

• 🚀 SpaceX’s Explosive Earnings & Consideration of Merger with Tesla! Following SpaceX’s strong earnings (revenue up over 160%) and Mr. Musk’s statement regarding the establishment of an integration committee, AI and high-tech stocks rebounded sharply.

• 📈 All 3 Major Indices Rose! The Nasdaq led the market with a +1.05% gain. The fear index (VIX) also fell to 16.68, and investor sentiment shifted toward risk-on.

• ⚠️ Caution Regarding After-Hours Strong Earnings and ‘Beat & Drop’! While Meta and Tesla announced strong earnings in after-hours trading, this is a phase where caution is needed regarding the ‘Beat & Drop’ phenomenon, where stocks are sold based on outlooks despite strong earnings.

2. Movement of Major Indices (October 21, 2026)

The closing prices and daily changes for today’s three major indices and the VIX (fear index) are as follows.

S&P 500

7,758.53

+0.60%

+46.01

Nasdaq Composite

26,702.86

+1.05%

+278.04

Dow Jones Industrial Average

52,857.10

+0.69%

+359.68

VIX Index

16.68

-3.64%

-0.63

💡 Market Commentary The VIX index, which indicates market caution, fell to 16.68 (the third consecutive day of decline), remaining well below the key 20 level and stabilizing. Market participant sentiment has clearly shifted toward risk-on (bullish), making it a day where a sense of relief spread, particularly among high-tech stocks.

3. Today’s Main Event: SpaceX Strong Earnings & Hint of Merger with Tesla

The biggest surprise that powerfully drove today’s stock market was the shocking news regarding SpaceX and Tesla🚀

• SpaceX’s Overwhelmingly Strong Earnings SpaceX reported strong figures with revenue of $14.6 billion (up over 160% year-on-year), profit of $4.4 billion, and capital expenditures of $19.6 billion. Following this, SpaceX stock surged +7.8% (+7.79%).

• Musk’s ‘Merger Consideration’ Statement Elon Musk stated that he has ‘established a committee to consider a merger between SpaceX and Tesla.’ However, Musk added that ‘no agreement on terms has been reached and there are no guarantees, but there are significant advantages to integration.’

• Tesla Stock’s Positive Reaction Due to strong expectations for synergy between the two companies and future business expansion, Tesla stock rose +3.41% (+3.4%), significantly driving the rise in the Nasdaq.

4. Rebound in AI/Semiconductor Sector and Movement of Major Stocks

AI and semiconductor-related stocks, which had taken a breather the previous day, were powerfully bought back again, supported by strong earnings and actual demand data.

• Super Micro (+9.55%) Triggers Rebound Super Micro raised its revenue and gross margin guidance from previous forecasts, reaffirming the strength of AI infrastructure demand and triggering a rebound across the entire sector.

• A series of positive news such as large orders and upgrades

  • Hardware giants rally: Dell (+7%) and HPE (+5%) were also bought on the back of strong AI infrastructure demand.

  • Huge orders from major Chinese firms: Reports that ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent ordered a total of $35 billion in Nvidia chips were seen as a positive catalyst.

  • Credit rating upgrade: Moody’s upgrading TSMC’s credit rating to ‘Aa2’ also provided psychological support.

  • Musk’s comments: Following his statement that ‘the debate over overcapacity is ridiculous,’ buying also flowed into neo-cloud related stocks.

📊 List of today’s major individual stock price changes

• Super Micro: +9.55% (Upward revision of earnings outlook acts as a positive catalyst for the entire sector)

• SpaceX: +7.79% (Strong earnings and hint of merger consideration with Tesla)

• Dell: +7.00% (Strong demand for AI infrastructure)

• HPE: +5.00% (Expectations for expanded server demand)

• United Airlines: +4.00% (Buying prevails despite announcement of weaker outlook)

• Tesla: +3.41% (Hinted merger consideration and pre-earnings buying anticipation)

• AMD: +3.36% (Reports of price target upgrades)

• Nvidia: +2.54% (Reports of large orders from Chinese megatech and resumption of AI-related buying)

• Micron: +1.96% (Strength in AI memory demand)

• Apple: +1.32% (Anticipation for new product launches)

• Meta: +0.46% (Slight gains ahead of after-hours earnings announcement)

• Alphabet: -1.62% (Weakness following CEO comments that Google Cloud prioritized securing computing power for AI development, passing up some revenue opportunities)

• Netflix: -5.31% (Beat & Drop: Results exceeded expectations but guidance fell short)

5. After-hours earnings (Meta/Tesla) and caution regarding the ‘Beat & Drop’ phenomenon

Following the close of trading (after-hours), there were a series of earnings announcements from major tech companies to watch.

5-1. Buy in after-hours trading? Strong earnings from Meta & Tesla

⚠️ Caution: Warning regarding price movements in after-hours trading After-hours trading has few participants and extremely low liquidity, so price movements tend to be amplified. Even if prices rise here, there are many cases where they are sold off and reverse during the next day’s regular trading hours (Thursday), so trading decisions must be made with caution.

5-2. The Earnings Season Trap: What is ‘Beat & Drop’?

A phenomenon to be particularly wary of this earnings season is ‘Beat & Drop’ (where earnings figures beat expectations, but the stock price drops sharply).

• Netflix Case Study (-5.31%) Although Netflix’s quarterly earnings (EPS) beat expectations, its revenue guidance for the October-December quarter ($13.4 billion) fell short of market forecasts. Investors were disappointed by the slowdown in quarterly revenue growth to its lowest level in about three years, causing the stock to fall sharply by -5.31%.

• A Chain of ‘Beat & Drop’ Events Even if recent performance is good, if future ‘guidance’ fails to meet market expectations, the current market environment continues to sell off stocks mercilessly. Following Citigroup, JNJ, Morgan Stanley, and GM, Netflix marks the 5th instance. It is a very dangerous time to buy blindly based solely on good earnings headlines.

6. Macro Environment, Interest Rates, Oil, and Other Factors

Let’s also organize the macro environment and commodity movements surrounding the market.

• 🇺🇸 US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 5.12% (Mostly Flat) The 10-year Treasury yield showed calm movement at 5.12% (+1bp from the previous day). The ultra-long 30-year Treasury yield also reached 5.41%, and the fact that it remains stable below the warning line (5.70%) is providing a sense of security for buying tech stocks.

• 🛢️ Oil Prices: Brent Crude Remains High in the Mid-$109 Range With the conflict in the Middle East continuing and no formal peace agreement reached, Brent crude remains high at $109.45 (+0.3-0.6%). WTI crude is hovering around $97.58. 💡 Investment Strategy Note: Since high oil prices are becoming prolonged, it is wise to maintain hedge positions in the energy sector (e.g., XLE).

• 🏛️ FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Outlook At the FOMC meeting to be held next week (10/27-28), the probability of keeping policy rates unchanged is dominant at about 85%. On the other hand, the probability of an additional 25bp (0.25%) rate hike at the December meeting is being priced in at about 75%.

• 🪙 Crypto Assets (Virtual Currencies) Bitcoin (BTC) broke through $84,000 and rose to $84,651 (+2.4%).

7. Upcoming Events & Action Plan for Investors

7-1. Upcoming Schedule

10/23 (Fri)

Apple foldable smartphone release

Tuesday, 10/27

Visa, Coca-Cola earnings announcements

Tuesday, 10/27 – Wednesday, 10/28

FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)

Wednesday, 10/28

Microsoft earnings announcement, Apple event

Thursday, 10/29

Amazon, Intel, Caterpillar earnings announcements

Tuesday, 11/3

US Midterm Elections, Arista earnings announcement

7-2. A word of advice for individual investors 💡

1. Carefully assess Meta and Tesla’s reaction during regular trading hours Although Meta and Tesla shares were bought in after-hours trading, it is extremely important not to judge based solely on thin-volume after-hours movements, but to confirm whether institutional investors will buy in earnest during Thursday’s ‘regular trading hours’.

2. Refrain from reckless chase buying in ‘Beat & Drop’ markets There have been 5 cases (such as Netflix) where stocks were sold off despite good results depending on the guidance (outlook). Refrain from jumping in based solely on headlines immediately after earnings announcements, and wait to act until you have thoroughly confirmed the outlook presented by the company.

3. Maintain hedges for energy stocks (XLE, etc.) Since Brent crude oil remains high in the $109 range and tensions in the Middle East continue, it is recommended to maintain your hedge positions in the energy sector rather than force a liquidation.

4. Continue long-term index accumulation (VOO, etc.) calmly according to your rules! The VIX index has also fallen to 16.68, and overall macro volatility risk is contained. Do not be swayed by short-term fluctuations in individual earnings; continue your core asset index accumulation investment unconditionally according to your rules!

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not solicit investment in any specific stock. Please make final investment decisions based on your own judgment and responsibility.