Tesla Completes Comeback, Paving Way For 30% Upside

Quick Read

• Tesla’s stock sits 30% below its December peak of $490, but record deliveries of 486,000 vehicles signal a strong path back.

• EU sales surged 66% in 2026’s first eight months while US market share climbed back above 50%, reversing the Musk-Trump political backlash.

• Ford’s full EV exit and Chinese tariff barriers leave Tesla with minimal competition in its two most profitable Western markets.

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What is the best way to figure out how high a stock can trade? One answer is to look at how high it has traded in the past. That at least shows that, at its best, a company reached a pinnacle of valuation. If the right pieces fall into place, it should be able to return to that level. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has made an extraordinary comeback in its core EV business. The stock traded at $490 last December. It trades at $375 today. To retake that summit, shares will rise 30%.

The broadest measure of Tesla’s success showed up most recently in China, the world’s largest EV market by far. Deliveries there rose 5% year over year to 95,366. Some of these were exported to Europe and North America. This happened amid a sharp weakening in the Chinese EV business overall.

Tesla’s recovery in the EU is more impressive. After a beating sales took, perhaps because of the relationship between CEO Elon Musk and President Trump, the rebound has been extraordinary. In the first eight months of the year, Tesla’s EU sales have risen 65.9% to 142,165, based on data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association.

And Tesla’s EV market share in the US has moved back above 50%. It fell sharply, again probably due to Musk’s brief government efficiency partnership with Donald Trump.

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All of this adds up to Tesla “produced over 464,000 vehicles, delivered over 486,000 vehicles,” the company said. This blew past most estimates.

While Tesla faces competition from dozens of other EV companies in China, it doesn’t face a similar problem in the EU and the US. Today, BYD is its only major EV competitor in the EU. Tariffs keep Chinese EVs out of most EU nations. Trade negotiations could eventually change that.

However, Tesla’s real advantage is its position in the US. Most of its potential competitors have left the market, completely or in part. Ford (NYSE: F) has walked away from EVs completely. Other large fossil-fuel vehicle companies, some of the largest manufacturers in the world, have scaled back their American ambitions.

Elon Musk wants Wall St. to view Tesla as a robotics and AI company. Based on current results, that is a stretch. The fact that its core business is setting records should be enough.

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Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questions or corrections.