Tesla Latest News 9/22: FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus, and New Roadster
“What’s going on with Tesla lately?”
If you’ve been following Tesla stock, the situation has become quite interesting recently.
If you look only at vehicle sales,
“Isn’t it no longer the growth company it once was?”
While that perspective is emerging,
AI, autonomous driving, robotaxis, and humanoid robots
are new factors that keep appearing one after another.
And most recently, even bigger news has come out.
Fitch has assigned Tesla an investment-grade rating of “BBB.”
On the other hand, it has also been pointed out that the massive capital expenditures Tesla plans for 2026 could place a significant burden on cash flow. (Barron’s)
Furthermore, on October 1st, the long-delayed announcement of the new Roadster is scheduled.
In other words, Tesla is currently in a phase where we must consider:
“Can Tesla truly transform from a ‘Tesla as an automaker’ into a ‘Tesla as an AI, robotics, and autonomous driving company’?”
that is the phase we are in.
1. Fitch assigns Tesla a “BBB” rating
First, what we want to focus on recently is the credit rating.
On September 21st, Fitch Ratings assigned Tesla its first BBB investment-grade rating.
BBB is a rating that falls into the investment-grade category.
While Fitch evaluates Tesla’s strong market position as a global EV manufacturer, it also mentions the possibility that debt may increase in the future due to massive investments in AI-related fields. (Barron’s)
This is important.
Tesla is planning capital expenditures for 2026 of
approximately $25 billion
.
Considering that capital expenditures for 2025 were less than $9 billion, this is a significant increase. (Barron’s)
In other words,
they are seriously pouring money into AI, robotics, and autonomous driving
.
2. However, ‘huge investment’ does not equal ‘stock price increase’
This is a point we should look at calmly as investors.
Tesla is investing on the scale of $25 billion in AI.
This can also be seen as
‘preparing for significant growth as an AI company’
.
However, conversely,
if the invested money does not lead to profits, it will put pressure on cash flow
.
Reuters also reported in July of this year that investors are paying close attention to Tesla’s cash flow due to increased spending on AI infrastructure, robotaxis, and Optimus. (Reuters)
This is a very important point.
In stock investing,
It is not just about “what you are investing in,”
but also
“when you will see a return on your investment.”
that you need to look at.
3. Q2 vehicle deliveries were 480,126 units
Looking at Tesla’s Q2 2026, vehicle deliveries were
480,126 units
.
Production was 451,758 units.
Furthermore, energy storage product deployments were
13.5 GWh
.
This is surprisingly important.
When people think of Tesla,
the image of an “EV manufacturer”
is overwhelmingly strong.
However, going forward,
automobiles + energy storage + AI + autonomous driving + robotics
it is transforming into a company with multiple business lines.
The energy business, in particular, is well-suited to an environment where power demand for AI data centers is expanding.
4. The biggest theme is definitely the “Robotaxi”
Personally, this is the most important point when looking at Tesla today.
Robotaxi
is it.
If autonomous driving becomes practical, Tesla’s business model itself could change.
Until now, cars have generated revenue by
“selling vehicles.”
However, if robotaxis become widely adopted,
it could change to a model of
Vehicle → Autonomous driving service → Continuous revenue
.
This is a huge difference.
It is not just about selling one car and being done with it, but rather that the car operates as a service.
However, there is a major “condition” here.
That is
safety and regulation
.
5. NHTSA demands answers from Tesla regarding Cybercab
In fact, there is also news regarding the regulatory side of Tesla’s autonomous driving.
On September 15, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) requested that Tesla provide answers to several questions regarding Cybercab certification.
The deadline for the response is September 30th.
One of the focal points is how the human-operated driving controls, which were temporarily installed during the Cybercab certification process, related to the self-certification of regulatory compliance. (Reuters)
This does not mean that the Cybercab is a failure.
However,
whether the robotaxi can truly be deployed on a large scale
will be a checkpoint to watch on September 30th.
6. FSD is also a major catalyst for the future
Another important factor is
FSD (Full Self-Driving)
.
Tesla positions FSD not just as a driver assistance feature, but as a pillar of future software revenue.
In January 2026, Musk stated that he expects early progress regarding FSD approval in Europe and China.
If the regions where FSD is available expand, and a structure of
more buyers
↓
more FSD users
↓
more software revenue
is established, it will also impact Tesla’s profit margins.
However, for this as well, it is necessary to monitor both ‘regulatory approval’ and ‘actual expansion of usage’.
7. Be aware of the gap between ‘expectations’ and ‘reality’ for Optimus
Another huge theme for Tesla.
That is,
the humanoid robot ‘Optimus’
is.
It is widely known that Tesla aims for mass production in the future.
Recently, Tesla has also indicated the possibility of starting external sales of Optimus in late 2027. (Electrek)
However, market views are divided on this.
On September 21, an analyst at Oppenheimer expressed the view that meaningful revenue from Optimus may not occur until 2029 or later.
They cited the complexity of hardware, software, and the supply chain as reasons. (Investing.com)
This is extremely important for Tesla investment.
“The robot looks impressive”
alone cannot explain the stock price.
What investors should look at is,
when it can be mass-produced, how many units can be made, how much it will be sold for, and how much profit will be made per unit
is.
8. And on October 1, the new Roadster
Currently, there is a very clear event to follow regarding Tesla stock.
October 1.
The announcement of the new Roadster.
On September 12, Musk revealed that the long-delayed next-generation Roadster would be announced on October 1.
Furthermore, in September, reservations for the Roadster were reopened.
According to reports, a $50,000 deposit is required for a reservation. (
Of course, the sales volume of the Roadster itself may not necessarily change Tesla as a whole significantly.
However,
“what kind of technology Tesla will incorporate into the new Roadster”
is something I am paying attention to.
In particular, it has the potential to be a product that symbolizes Tesla’s “future,” including autonomous driving, AI, batteries, and technical collaboration with SpaceX.
9. September and October are event-heavy for Tesla stock
Actually, it is not just the Roadster.
In October, there is a sequence of:
1. New Roadster announcement
↓
2. Q3 delivery numbers
↓
3. Q3 earnings report
that will unfold.
According to Barron’s, Wall Street expects Q3 2026 deliveries to be around 461,000 units, while Dan Levy of Barclays anticipates 475,000 units. (Barron’s)
However, these are merely the expectations of market participants.
When the actual numbers are released, it is necessary to look at not only
“whether they exceeded expectations”
but also
“how the profit margins were,” “how the cash flow was,” and “whether non-automotive businesses grew.”
10. It is dangerous to view Tesla stock only as an “automotive company”
By lining up the news like this, Tesla’s current position becomes a bit clearer.
Tesla is currently:
Automotive
Sales of Model 3 / Model Y, etc.
↓
Energy
Batteries / Energy storage
↓
Software
FSD
↓
Autonomous driving
Robotaxi / Cybercab
↓
Robotics
Optimus
↓
AI
AI computing infrastructure
They are trying to expand their business domain in that direction.
That is precisely why it is difficult to evaluate Tesla stock using only the same P/E ratio as a regular automaker.
On the other hand,
thinking “it’s an AI company, so a high P/E ratio is fine”
is also dangerous.
Ultimately,
you need to see if expectations for the future are turning into actual profits and cash flow
to check.
Check this!
I will track the following 5 items going forward.
1. Vehicle sales volume
Not just the simple number of units,
but also year-over-year, by region, and by model
to look at.
2. Automotive segment profit margin
Even if sales increase, if the profit margin drops, it will not lead to profit growth.
3. FSD/Robotaxi
Not “the technology is amazing,” but
number of users, regions, and monetization
to look at.
④ Optimus
Look at the mass production timeline, sales price, and actual production numbers.
See.
⑤ Cash flow
This is quite important.
Since capital expenditure of approximately $25 billion is planned for 2026,
it is necessary to verify whether investments in AI are leading to future profits.
Summary
If I were to describe Tesla today in one phrase,
I think it is in a stage where it is being tested on whether it can transition from an automotive company to an AI, autonomous driving, and robotics company.
I think.
However, what is important here is not to simplify it by saying ‘Tesla’s stock price will rise because it is an AI company.’
Rather, from now on,
massive investments in AI
and
actual profits and cash flow
is a phase to look at the balance.
And in the short term,
September 30: Deadline for response to NHTSA regarding Cybercab
October 1st: New Roadster announcement
October: Q3 delivery numbers
October: Q3 financial results
These are the upcoming events.
What I find particularly interesting is
“Can Tesla’s stock price be explained solely by vehicle sales figures?”
the point of that.
If FSD, Robotaxi, and Optimus become fully monetized, the very metrics used to measure Tesla’s corporate value could change.
*This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend the buying or selling of any specific stock. Please make investment decisions based on your own judgment and responsibility after reviewing the latest financial reports and disclosure documents.