Tesla Rises 5% Despite Musk’s Cybertruck Refund Warning, Lucid Jumps 8% Ahead of Earnings; Rivian Climbs 2%

Electric vehicle (EV) makers are joining a broad rebound in growth shares, and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) is climbing even as its chief executive warns that many Cybertruck buyers won’t get their trucks. Tesla stock is at $376.68, up 5% so far this afternoon. U.S. stocks are mounting a broad rally as investors return to artificial intelligence (AI) and growth names after last week’s post-midterm selloff.

That risk appetite is the best-supported driver of the rebound in Tesla, which follows a rough stretch. Even with the bounce, Tesla stock is down 6% over the past week. On October 21, the company reported its Q3 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.48, ahead of estimates, on revenue of $28.05 billion.

Musk Warns Many Cybertruck Deposits Will Be Returned

Tesla CEO Elon Musk wrote in a post on November 9, as reported by Yahoo Finance: “Cybertruck order rate far exceeds our production rate. We will try to make as many as possible before shutting down the line in about 8 months, but will have to return deposits for a lot of people.” Musk’s message followed his announcement, reported on November 6, that Tesla will wind down Cybertruck production at its Texas gigafactory around the middle of next year to make room for more Cybercab robotaxi output. He also argued that “the opportunity cost of the complexity of Cybertruck is vastly outweighed by the value of incremental Cybercab production.”

Each Cybertruck deposit is $1,000, according to Yahoo Finance, and Tesla built annual Cybertruck capacity of 250,000 units at Giga Austin. Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book estimated total Cybertruck sales since the 2023 launch at 71,000, far below that capacity. How many deposits Tesla might return remains unclear. The refund warning repeats Musk’s own words on Tesla’s October 21 call: “Demand is growing rapidly for our vehicles. It’s exceeding our production by a significant margin.”

Lucid Rallies Into Its Q3 Report While Rivian Lags

Third-quarter deliveries at Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) fell to 3,806 from the second quarter, and the company reports its Q3 results after the close on November 9. Lucid stock is trading at $3.54, up 8%. Over the past week, the stock has gained 17%.

Cash burn is central to Lucid’s report. The company’s Q2 free cash flow was negative $1.48 billion, and CEO Silvio Napoli stated on the August 4 call that “bringing it down is an immediate priority.” Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) committed to at least 35,000 Lucid vehicles for robotaxis, so launch timing matters.

Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) stock is at $13.82, up 2%. The smaller gain trails both peers mentioned today, even though Rivian stock is up 14% over the past week. On October 29, the company reported third-quarter results with revenue of $2.155 billion, up 38.3% year over year, while its automotive gross loss narrowed to $80 million from $130 million, helped in part by regulatory credits and a tariff refund receivable.

How Tesla’s Business Model Stands Apart From Lucid and Rivian

Tesla’s reach extends well beyond cars, including energy storage, a Supercharger network, Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, Optimus humanoid robots and in-house AI compute. Lucid sells premium-priced Air and Gravity models, draws backing from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and is building a factory in that country.

At Rivian, R1 and R2 consumer vehicles sit alongside electric delivery vans and a software joint venture with Volkswagen. That range gives Tesla more ways to handle a Cybertruck exit, while Lucid and Rivian lean more heavily on their vehicle ramps.

Cybertruck Refunds and Lucid’s Earnings Set Up the Next Test

Investors will be watching whether Lucid’s Q3 report shows cash burn shrinking from the second quarter’s pace. Lucid has missed EPS estimates in five straight quarters, so another miss could quickly undo the recent run.

Tesla’s bulls argue that Cybercab, FSD and energy storage can grow fast enough to make lost truck sales a footnote. Skeptics say refunding deposits on a product with strong orders gives up near-term revenue before robotaxi income arrives. For Rivian, the R2 ramp and its December 9 Autonomy and AI Day are the next markers, though the company still reports losses. A conservative investment approach may be warranted until the Lucid cash-burn question resolves.

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