Tesla (TSLA) Stock Eyes $400 Ahead of Q1 Earnings — Why Analysts Are Deeply Divided
Tesla (TSLA) will release its Q1 2026 earnings next week on April 22 after the market closes. The stock has gained 12.6% in the last five days and is now approaching the $400 level. Meanwhile, Wall Street is deeply split on Tesla ahead of Q1 earnings, with price targets ranging from as low as $25 to as high as $600. The debate is on whether Tesla is just a car company under pressure or an AI-driven growth story with massive upside. The Q1 earnings on April 22 may not settle that debate, but they could show which side is starting to lose confidence. Overall, TSLA stock has a Hold rating on Wall Street with an average upside of 3%.
For context, Wall Street expects Tesla to report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.37 for Q1 2026, reflecting 37% year-over-year growth. Revenue is projected to rise over 15% year-over-year to $22.26 billion in Q1.
Tesla stock is currently trading around $388.90. The shares are down more than 20% from their December 2025 peak and have fallen about 13.5% year-to-date. Broadly, the decline has been driven by slower delivery growth, margin pressure from price cuts, rising competition, and broader macro concerns.
Earlier this month, the stock saw its sharpest drop of 2026 following a disappointing Q1 delivery report. Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026, missing analysts’ expectations of around 372,000.
Bulls are focused on Tesla’s AI and robotics future, while bears remain concerned about its struggling EV business.
Wedbush’s five-star-rated analyst Dan Ives has the Street-high price target on TSLA at $600, implying an upside of over 50%. He sees Tesla’s AI initiatives and upcoming robotaxi rollout as major growth drivers for 2026, even suggesting a potential future link with SpaceX.
Despite recent delivery misses, Ives believes Tesla’s long-term story is less about cars and more about AI and robotics. He points to roughly $20 billion in planned investments across Cybercab, Optimus, batteries, and AI infrastructure, and maintains that the stock still offers significant upside from current levels.
On the flip side, GLJ’s analyst Gordon Johnson remains one of Tesla’s biggest bears, with a price target of $25.28—implying more than 90% downside. He has maintained a Sell rating on the stock for years. Johnson argues that Tesla is now resetting to its core fundamentals, without the support of speculative options activity that previously helped lift the stock. In his view, that tailwind has faded, leaving TSLA exposed to a potential re-rating and further downside in 2026.