Tesla's Cybercab Pilot Production Is Underway. Is the Stock a Buy Ahead of a Potential Sales Surge?

Pilot production of Cybercab is underway, Tesla (TSLA 3.47%) confirmed in the company’s first-quarter update. Purpose-built for autonomy, the start of production of this steering-wheel-free electric vehicle makes the autonomy story feel more real — and it gives investors one more reason to believe the company is serious about building a dedicated autonomous ride-sharing vehicle.

The question, however, is how quickly this new game-changing vehicle can become material to Tesla’s financial results — and whether the growth stock is already pricing in its success.

A transitional period

Tesla’s first quarter was solid, featuring 16% year-over-year revenue growth, fueled primarily by revenue growth of the same rate in its automotive business.

But there were still some signs of weakness in Tesla’s core automotive business.

Total deliveries were 358,023 in Q1, down from 418,227 in Q4. And global vehicle inventory rose to 27 days of supply from 15 in the prior quarter. So even though Tesla’s year-over-year comparisons looked better, the sequential trend still suggests the company’s core vehicle business is not exactly firing on all cylinders.

There were, however, some encouraging autonomy-related signals in the quarter.

Tesla’s active Full Self-Driving (Supervised) subscriptions rose to 1.28 million from 1.10 million in Q4. And the company said paid Robotaxi (Tesla’s autonomous ride-sharing network) miles nearly doubled sequentially. Further, it expanded unsupervised Robotaxi operations beyond Austin into Dallas and Houston in April. Preparations were also underway in Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas.

So, the quarter did a decent job of presenting both sides of the Tesla story. The legacy vehicle business still looks somewhat pressured. But the software and Robotaxi pieces do seem to be moving forward.

Why Cybercab matters

Tesla has ambitious expectations for Cybercab. Once pilot production transitions to volume production, management expects it will replace the existing Model Y fleet powering its Robotaxi service, and “will be the largest volume vehicle in the fleet over time,” the company said in its first-quarter update.

But investors should not assume this means a near-term sales surge is around the corner.

During Tesla’s first-quarter earnings call, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that with a new product and new supply chain, the ramp is usually a “stretched-out S curve.” He added that initial production of Cybercab will be “very slow” before ramping later. He also said unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi revenue will likely “not be super material this year” but will likely be “material in a significant way next year.”

So don’t expect Cybercab to move the needle in a major way anytime soon.

And that makes sense. Not only will the production ramp be slow initially, but demand for Cybercab will likely depend heavily on how quickly Tesla can expand its Robotaxi network and prove the economics, as one of the primary selling points of the Cybercab is that the company plans for owners to have the ability to eventually deploy them into Tesla’s Robotaxi network to earn money. But its unclear how long it will take Tesla’s Robotaxi service to ramp up. And this nascent business will also be highly dependent on regulatory approval.

Today’s Change

(-3.47%) $-13.43

Current Price

$374.08

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$1.5T

Day’s Range

$368.39 – $385.30

52wk Range

$249.20 – $498.83

Volume

3.8M

Avg Vol

63M

Gross Margin

18.03%

Time to buy the stock?

Another factor investors need to consider is that a successful Robotaxi sales surge may already be priced into the stock; shares currently trade at an extreme price-to-earnings ratio well above 300.

Additionally, Tesla’s spending is expected to surge. The company said it now expects more than $25 billion in capital expenditures in 2026.

“While this may seem a lot, and we will have the impact of negative free cash flow for the rest of the year, we believe this is the right strategy to position the company for the next era,” explained Tesla chief financial officer Vaibhav Taneja during the company’s first-quarter earnings call.

Over the long term, Tesla could see a massive sales surge thanks to both its Cybercab and Robotaxi services. But it’s not yet clear that these will be big enough earnings growth drivers to justify the stock’s valuation — especially with spending expected to soar this year.

Sure, the fact that Cybercab is in pilot production is a good sign. But the company’s own commentary suggests the ramp will take time — and the stock price still seems to leave very little room for delays or disappointment.