The Remains of the Trade: The U.S.–China Trade War and its Aftermath

A preliminary version of this paper was prepared for the 2nd Annual AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, held in AlUla, Saudi Arabia on February 8-9, 2026. We are grateful to Yipei Zhang for research assistance, and to Roberto Cardarelli, Shushanik Hakobyan, Neil Meads and participants at the 2nd IMF MENA Economic Research Conference (Rabat, 2026) and the 3rd Kiel-Gottingen-CEPR Conference on China in the Global Economy (Berlin 2026) for feedback. The indices of exposure developed in this paper can be accessed and visualized at https://pantras-hash.github.io/remains_of_the_trade/. The views expressed here are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, or management. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.