There may be times when swing trading is suitable and times when it is not

When you continue swing trading, have you ever felt that “even though I am trading with the same rules, there are times when my performance is good for some reason, and times when things just don’t go well”? Even though your strategy and your own skills have not changed, the results are inconsistent. I suspect many people dismiss this feeling as merely a “wave of ups and downs.”

In fact, there are periods when swing trading is “suitable” and periods when it is “not suitable” depending on the market environment, and these exist to a certain extent. If you continue to work in the same way at the same pace without understanding this seasonal compatibility, you may end up repeatedly experiencing struggles that could have been avoided.

Many people attribute all the causes of failure to their own lack of skill, thinking, “Is my strategy bad?” or “Do I need to study more?” However, in reality, it is quite possible that the period itself was simply a bad match for the swing trading strategy. Whether or not you have this perspective will greatly change how you perceive periods of poor performance.

Today, I would like to organize the differences between periods when swing trading is suitable and periods when it is not, and what factors create that difference, in a way that is easy for beginners to understand. Before reviewing the strategy itself, having the perspective of first grasping “what kind of period it is now” will lead to stability in your performance.

There are calendar-based factors like seasonality, as well as factors derived from the market environment at the time, such as the presence or absence of overall market trends and the degree of market stability. I would like to look at each factor one by one and examine why a certain period can be said to be suitable or unsuitable for swing trading.