Today's Stock Market Talk (October 16, 2026)
Hello. After yesterday’s drop, which was the third-largest in history, the market rebounded today for the first time in seven trading days. However, the content of the recovery cannot be called a ‘full rebound.’ Let’s look back at it.
In conclusion, the Nikkei Stock Average rose 898.34 yen to 65,324.29 yen. While buying back from the previous day’s sharp drop was the main driver, the destination of the money today was a bit different from before, even within the ‘AI-related’ sector.
Yesterday in the US, the Dow rose significantly, but the Nasdaq remained heavy.
First, let’s look at the US market on the 15th. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 556.21 dollars to 52,177.69 dollars, rebounding for the first time in three days. The Nasdaq rose 20.16 points to 26,713.03, also rebounding for the first time in four days, but it was a marginal increase, remaining almost flat.
The reason the Dow rose significantly was the decline in US long-term interest rates. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note temporarily fell to 5.03%, down 0.16% from the previous day. Until the day before, anxiety had been spreading due to the CoreWeave shock and AI-related debt issues, with fears that ‘AI-related companies might struggle with debt.’ Because of this, buying flowed into US Treasuries, which are considered relatively safe assets, causing interest rates to fall.
On this day, while the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for September reached a four-year high, retail sales for September slowed down. Even so, interest rates fell because the movement to escape from anxieties surrounding AI investment was stronger than the talk about prices. Concerns over rising interest rates eased, and buying spread to consumer-related, healthcare, and cyclical stocks. Among market participants, there were voices saying that ‘a rotation of buying has spread, moving investment funds from AI-related stocks to other stocks that are relatively undervalued.’
Today’s Japanese market rebounded, but the recovery was limited.
Index Value Change from Previous Day Nikkei Stock Average 65,324.29 yen 898.34 yen rise (1.39% rise) TOPIX 4,066.00 66.66 rise (1.67% rise) Growth 250 779.18 22.65 rise (2.99% rise)
Today, the market opened 499 yen higher at 64,925 yen, and by the end of the morning session, it had risen to 65,550 yen, up 1,124.73 yen. In the afternoon session, it was bought up to 65,712 yen, with the gain reaching 1,286 yen at one point. However, once the buying subsided, it erased some of its gains and ended with an increase of nearly 900 yen.
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market, about 83% of stocks rose, and 32 out of 33 sectors saw gains, marking a broad-based rise. The only sector that fell was Electric and Gas. Sectors with large gains included Other Products (2.75% rise), Machinery (2.44% rise), and Insurance (2.36% rise).
What we should look at calmly here is the scale of the recovery. Today’s 898 yen rise is only about 27% of the previous day’s decline (3,318 yen). Looking at the approximately 6,258 yen drop over six consecutive days of decline, it has only recovered about 14%. Electric appliances, which fell 6.13% the previous day, only rose 2.07% today, and the recovery of Tokyo Electron was far from reaching the amount it had lost.
Trading value also decreased from about 10 trillion yen the previous day to about 7.6686 trillion yen. As a market as a whole, rather than being ‘calm,’ there was a strong wait-and-see mood, with investors wanting to ‘check the earnings of Japanese and US AI-related companies that will begin in earnest next week.’
Today’s theme is from ‘those who make AI’ to ‘those who use AI’.
The most interesting thing about today’s market was that the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that the buying of ‘AI utilization’ stocks is becoming clear.
Until now, the market has been led by companies that make semiconductors and equipment to run AI, such as Advantest and Tokyo Electron. Comparing it to the Gold Rush, this was the stage where the companies selling pickaxes to the people digging for gold were making the most money.
However, recently, anxiety has emerged regarding the funding for those pickaxe costs (investment in AI infrastructure). Therefore, money has started to flow to the side that is actually using the pickaxes to strike gold, in other words, companies that are achieving results using AI.
Today, the stocks that were actually bought up to the daily limit high were BayCurrent and SHIFT. Both announced their earnings after the close of trading yesterday, the 15th. Recruit also hit a record high.
Today’s featured stock: Japanese stock edition ‘BayCurrent (6532)’
The star of today is this stock. It is a consulting firm that supports corporate DX (digital transformation), and its stock price was bought up to the daily limit high of 10,195 yen (+1,500 yen from the previous day).
The earnings for the first half (March to August) announced yesterday showed sales of 92.9 billion yen (+35.7% year-on-year) and operating profit of 29.9 billion yen (+28.5% year-on-year). What I want to highlight is that the momentum of profit growth is accelerating. The operating profit growth rate in the first quarter was +18.6%, but it expanded to +28.5% for the entire first half, and looking at the June-August period alone, operating profit increased by about 39% to 15.4 billion yen. The operating profit margin is also at a very high level of about 32%.
Furthermore, they have released a new medium-term management plan. It sets quite ambitious goals, aiming for 500 billion yen in sales by the fiscal year ending February 2031 and 1 trillion yen by the fiscal year ending February 2036. Regarding share buybacks, they also indicated a policy of flexibly adding to them, in addition to annual surplus cash, while monitoring investment opportunities and stock price levels.
In fact, a similar event occurred in the United States. On October 1, the major consulting firm Accenture announced its financial results, and its stock price rose by over 15%. Until then, there had been lingering concerns that “if generative AI spreads, intellectual service industries like consulting might have their work taken away,” but the content of the earnings report showed that, on the contrary, AI-related demand is supporting growth. Today’s BayCurrent follows the same pattern. An industry often seen as being “on the side of having work taken away by AI” has shown through its numbers that it is “growing by using AI.”
SHIFT (3697) also hit a daily limit high of 1,058 yen (+150 yen). Adjusted operating profit for the fiscal year ending August 2026 was 20.3 billion yen (+14.8% year-on-year), marking a turnaround from the profit decline seen through the third quarter. Improvements in utilization rates and the contribution of AI to profit margins are cited as the reasons.
However, one thing to be cautious about is that because of the sudden rise, expectations may already be significantly priced in. It is not uncommon for price movements to become volatile from the day after a “news breaks and the stock hits a limit high” scenario like today’s.
Today’s Spotlight Stock: US Stocks Edition “NVIDIA (NVDA)”
The trigger for today’s rebound in Japanese stocks was this news from yesterday, the 15th. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang spoke at an event in Stockholm, saying that CoreWeave is “getting stronger every day” and that “the cost of capital is actually falling.” He also stated that NVIDIA does not need to provide financial support.
NVIDIA is a major business partner of CoreWeave and is also its second-largest shareholder, holding about a 10% stake. In other words, it is a relationship where they are providing money to a large customer who buys their products. The head of the company has directly defended CoreWeave’s finances.
Following these remarks, CoreWeave’s stock price fell as much as 9.5% to $59.51 before turning upward. It is reported that it ended the day higher (some reports say it rose about 6%). It is also reported that Deutsche Bank sees this sharp drop as a good buying opportunity.
On the other hand, the reaction in the bond market has not been as calm as in the stock market. The circulating yield on CoreWeave’s corporate bonds rose to 16% at one point, and CDS (credit default swap) prices, which act as insurance against bankruptcy, are at record highs. Some point out that bond investors have not yet aligned with Mr. Huang’s remarks.
This is an important point for how to view the news. People who buy stocks put up money in anticipation of “future growth.” On the other hand, people who buy corporate bonds are looking at “whether they will be paid back properly.” If the stock market rebounds but the bond market has not eased its vigilance, it means the story is not over yet.
Personally, there is one more point that concerns me. A relationship like NVIDIA’s, where “you invest in the company that buys your products,” boosts growth when things are going well, but it also has the aspect that when anxiety spreads, each other’s weaknesses are easily linked. Of course, it is still unclear how this will turn out this time.
For those investing via NISA
Today, some may feel relieved by the rebound following yesterday’s large drop. However, looking at the details, the recovery is less than 30% of yesterday’s decline, so it has not returned to “normal.”
Also, even if we group them all as “AI-related,” the flow of funds is changing between the “AI-making side” like semiconductors and the “AI-using side” like BayCurrent. The fact that winners and losers can swap places even within the same theme is something that will likely come up many more times in the future.
The important thing is not to be swayed by daily price movements, but to try to understand “why it moved that way.” If you understand it, you won’t have to panic when you encounter a similar situation next time.
That’s it for today. Next week, earnings reports from AI-related companies in Japan and the US will begin in earnest. CoreWeave’s bond prices and the movements of the semiconductor stock index (SOX) will also remain in focus. Let’s think about short-term price movements and long-term asset formation separately.
※ This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend buying or selling any specific stock or product. Please make investment decisions based on your own judgment and responsibility.