Trump tariffs and US economy: 5 things to watch ahead of November midterm elections

The policy has also created disputes with major US trading partners. The US and Canada remain locked in a tariff fight, while Washington and Beijing have agreed to extend their temporary trade truce.

At the same time, Americans continue to rate the economy and cost of living as important issues. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from September 17 to 20 put Trump’s overall approval at 32%. His approval among Republicans for handling the economy was 56%, down from 80% in January. Approval for his handling of the cost of living was 44%, down from 70% in January.

The poll does not say tariffs caused the change in these ratings. It simply shows where public opinion stood in September.

With the November 3 midterm elections approaching, here are five areas of Trump’s trade policy that connect directly to the US economy:

1. Higher prices

A tariff is a tax on imported goods. US companies that bring foreign goods into the country generally pay the tariff to the government.

The company then has a choice. It can absorb the additional cost, raise its prices, find another supplier or make other changes to its business.

This means the effect of a tariff can vary from one product and company to another.

For example, a US company that imports a component from another country may face a higher cost after a tariff is imposed. A domestic producer that competes with that imported product may face less competition.

The effect on consumers therefore depends on how companies respond.

This is relevant to the wider cost-of-living debate because the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll found only 17% of Americans approved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living. Among Republicans, approval was 44%.

The poll does not link those views directly to tariffs. It measures Americans’ overall views of the cost of living.

2. Business costs

The second issue is the effect on companies. Trump has earlier said that tariffs can protect US manufacturers from foreign competition and encourage companies to produce more goods in America.

But tariffs can also raise costs for US companies that rely on imported materials.

Consider a manufacturer that buys steel, machinery or components from overseas. If those imports face a tariff, the company’s costs can rise unless it finds a cheaper supplier or absorbs the increase.

That creates different effects across industries. A company that sells a product made largely in the US may face less competition from imports. A company that depends heavily on imported parts may face higher costs.

The impact can also extend to investment decisions. Companies need to know what their costs will be when they decide where to build factories, where to source materials and how to organise supply chains.

This is one reason trade negotiations matter to businesses even when they do not directly import finished products.

3. China truce

The US-China trade relationship is another important part of Trump’s tariff policy. Washington and Beijing agreed to a temporary trade truce after a period of major tariff increases. The arrangement was due to expire on November 10.

That deadline has now moved. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on September 23 that the two countries had agreed to extend the truce until January 10, reported Reuters. The extension gives the two sides more time to negotiate a broader economic agreement.

The US and China have large and closely connected trade relationships. US companies buy products and components from China. American farmers and other exporters also depend on overseas markets.

A change in tariffs can therefore affect both sides of the trade relationship.

The September 24 meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping also kept trade at the centre of US-China relations. The two sides secured only a short extension of the trade agreement rather than a larger trade settlement, reported Reuters.

4. Canada fight

Canada presents a different problem because the two countries have deeply integrated supply chains.

The US and Canada trade large amounts of goods across their shared border. Industries such as automobiles rely on components moving between the two countries during the manufacturing process.

The trade relationship has come under pressure this year.

The Trump administration was prepared to continue its trade standoff with Canada, reported Reuters. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Washington was comfortable maintaining the dispute even as new US import restrictions on Canadian products were due to take effect.

Washington has also threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, auto parts and steel from January.

Canada has responded with tariffs of its own. Reuters previously reported that Ottawa planned dollar-for-dollar tariffs on selected US goods after trade talks collapsed.

This creates a straightforward issue for American businesses. A US company that sells goods in Canada can face Canadian tariffs. A US company that buys Canadian materials can face higher import costs if US tariffs apply.

US-Canada trade is closely connected to the USMCA, the trade agreement covering the United States, Canada and Mexico.

5. Economic record

The final issue is broader than tariffs themselves: how Americans view the economy. The September Reuters/Ipsos poll found Trump’s overall approval at 32%, his lowest level in the Reuters/Ipsos series. Among Republicans, his approval was 73%.

The same poll found that approval among Republicans for Trump’s handling of the economy was 56%, compared with 80% in January. Approval for his handling of the cost of living was 44%, compared with 70% in January.

The poll also found that registered voters preferred Democratic candidates over Republican candidates by 43% to 35% when asked which party they would support for Congress.

But these figures should not be read as evidence that tariffs are driving those numbers.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll measures views on the economy and cost of living. It does not establish that tariffs caused the decline in approval.

Other economic and political issues also affect public opinion. High costs and the war with Iran were among the concerns affecting Trump’s approval in September, reported Reuters.

Trump’s tariff policy is a documented part of the economic debate. The US has active trade disputes with Canada and has extended its trade truce with China. Those policies affect companies that import, export or depend on international supply chains.

But the available polling does not allow us to say that tariffs alone will determine how Americans vote. What can be measured is the policy itself, its effect on trade relationships and the economic conditions that voters will see before November 3.

For the coming weeks, the key dates include the next stages of the US-Canada dispute and the January 10 deadline for the extended US-China trade truce. Those developments will show whether Trump’s tariff strategy produces longer-term trade agreements or leads to further changes in tariffs.

Disclaimer: This article is published for informational and explanatory purposes only. The polling figures and other data cited in this article reflect the information available at the time of publication. They do not establish that tariffs alone caused changes in public opinion, nor do they indicate how voters will ultimately vote. Financial Express Digital does not predict, endorse or assess the outcome of the November 2026 US midterm elections. Readers should treat the polling data as a snapshot of public opinion, not as a forecast of the election result.