Two Surprises That Offset the 'Triple Threat' of Soaring Interest Rates and High Oil Prices

On September 24, 2026, the U.S. stock market showed resilience, with the three major indices closing nearly flat despite being exposed to strong headwinds from a sharp rise in long-term interest rates and high oil prices.

💡 Today’s key points in 3 lines

1. The ‘Triple Threat’ vs. ‘Two Surprises’ standoff: Despite selling pressure from soaring long-term interest rates, high oil prices, and hawkish expectations, the market closed flat, offset by reports of U.S.-Iran talks and a surge in Meta.

2. The primary driver of rising interest rates has changed: It was not Fed rate hike expectations, but rather inflation concerns linked to high oil prices and an expansion in the term premium that pushed long-term interest rates (10-year Treasury at 5.205%) higher.

3. A shift in the AI theme: The dual nature of the AI market has become clear, with ‘physical infrastructure constraints (Oracle decline)’ and ‘successful monetization at the application layer (Meta surge)’.

1. Results of major indices and intraday drama

Major indices on September 24 closed ‘nearly flat’ with little direction compared to the previous day.

• S&P 500: 7,704.23 (-0.02% / intraday low of -0.6%)

• Nasdaq Composite: 26,939.37 (+0.01% / intraday low of -0.9%)

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 51,349.98 (-0.31%)

• VIX Index: 15.67 (+3.23% / maintained below the caution level of 20)

📉 From morning sell-off to afternoon V-shaped recovery

Immediately after the market opened, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.205% (+8.9bp), a level not seen since 2007, and Brent crude oil also jumped to $107.54 (+4.3%), causing the ‘triple threat’ of inflation and rising interest rates to significantly weigh down stock prices.

However, at 12:17 (ET), Reuters reported that ‘the U.S. and Iran are discussing a phased agreement in New York aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting economic blockades’, and the stock market rapidly reduced its losses as geopolitical risks eased. Furthermore, Meta surged +4.5% due to positive reception of its new AI app ‘Muse,’ which strongly supported the indices and pushed the market back into positive territory by the close.

2. The ‘quality’ of rising interest rates has changed: Not Fed expectations, but oil and term premiums

What is particularly noteworthy about this rise in interest rates is the change in the shape of the yield curve (bear steepening).

• U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: 4.931% (+3.6bp)

• US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 5.205% (+8.9bp)

• US 30-Year Treasury Yield: 5.489% (+8.7bp)

While the rise in short-term rates (2-year notes) was modest, the increase in long-term bonds (10-year and 30-year) was pronounced. The probability of a 25bp rate hike by the Fed in October remains largely unchanged at approximately 69% from the previous day (68%), suggesting that today’s yield increase is not driven by direct Fed monetary policy expectations, but primarily by inflationary pressure from high oil prices and an increase in the reward for long-term holding risk (term premium).

The report points out that this is a ‘type of interest rate rise that the Fed cannot easily stop through intervention,’ and the trend in oil prices has become the most important variable for the entire market.

3. The ‘Duality’ in the AI Market: From ‘Build It’ to ‘Use It’

A clear polarization has emerged in the AI-related market.

🏗️ ① Infrastructure Side (build it): Emergence of Physical Constraints

On the infrastructure side, which has driven the AI market so far, physical bottlenecks such as ‘location, permits, and power’ are becoming apparent rather than financial limitations.

• Oracle (-3.5%): Shares fell following reports that it notified developers of force majeure regarding the construction of a massive AI data center in New Mexico, citing local opposition and regulatory delays.

📱 ② Application Layer (use it): Capital Inflow into Practical Application and Direct Monetization

• Meta (+4.5%): Its new AI app ‘Muse’ reached #1 in the App Store for free apps and was praised by JPMorgan as ‘potentially the largest consumer AI app in history.’ CEO Zuckerberg’s announcement of a ‘transaction fee model’ was also well-received, drawing expectations toward the application layer.

• Meanwhile, as Muse announced a game creation tool, existing gaming stocks fell, reflecting growing caution (associative selling) regarding the erosion of intermediary businesses by AI applications.

4. K-Shaped Consumption Structure and the Light and Shadow of Individual Earnings

• Costco (post-close earnings): Reported strong earnings with revenue of $95.72 billion (expected $94.85 billion), EPS of $6.75 (expected $6.53), and same-store sales growth of +9.4%. This indicates that the spending appetite of the upper tier remains robust.

• McDonald’s: Hit a 52-week low due to sluggish same-store sales, making the polarization (K-shape) of consumption even more distinct.

5. Strategies Investors Should Take Now and Upcoming Key Dates

📌 Position Management Rules

• VOO (S&P 500 ETF): Continue mechanical accumulation unconditionally.

• XLE (Energy Sector ETF): Maintain hedge positions, as US-Iran talks are still at the reporting stage and have failed in the past.

• AI Semiconductors: Remain on the sidelines without making new moves until the earnings announcements on September 30 (S4 rule).

🗓️ The Fateful Decision Day: September 30th

The next major market milestone is September 30th.

If oil prices fall, the three risks of ‘inflation, yields, and Fed expectations’ will head toward resolution all at once, so we must continue to closely monitor the U.S.-Iran situation and energy prices.

Note: This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend the buying or selling of any specific securities. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.