Uber’s Woes Continue But This Wall Street Pro Says It’s Going to Double WIthin a Year
Quick Read
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Evercore’s Mahaney targets $150 for UBER, representing 116% upside, betting the company becomes the network orchestrator for autonomous fleets and backed by $10B in free cash flow.
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UBER trades at 16x forward earnings versus DoorDash’s 38x, giving it the widest consensus upside gap among ride-share and delivery peers.
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Uber’s CEO bought 141,000 shares near current prices, but Waymo’s potential exit and rising AV spending could turn today’s discount into a value trap.
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Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) is trading at $69.31. The average price target among analysts is $100.86, which implies 45.5% upside.
Uber runs a global platform for rides, delivery and freight. It has 208 million monthly active platform consumers and recorded $58.02 billion in quarterly gross bookings. The question hanging over the stock all year is whether robotaxis make Uber the essential aggregator or cut it out of the trip.
One analyst has an unusually clear answer. Evercore ISI’s Mark Mahaney holds a Street-high $150.00 target, which implies 116.4% upside. He expects the stock to more than double. Price targets usually look about 12 months out, so that is a bold call.
Weak Guidance and Robotaxi Fears Left Uber 30% Below Its High
The biggest hit came from guidance. Uber forecast third-quarter adjusted EPS of 84 cents to 88 cents, below the 89 cents analysts expected, and shares fell 4.8%. The second quarter also missed. EPS came in at $0.81 versus $0.833 expected, and revenue was $14.19B versus $14.26B.
On the same call, Uber laid out plans to spend more than $10 billion on robotaxis. This came amid reports that Waymo was considering ending the two companies’ partnership. Investors were already examining capital allocation after the $14.80-billion Delivery Hero deal.
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The stock is now 30.9% below its 52-week high of $100.35. That is a severe decline for a megacap. Self-driving headlines keep adding pressure. Uber fell 2.82% in the latest session as investors digested more self-driving news tied to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). The S&P 500 slipped only 1.07% that day.
Evercore’s $150 Case Rests on Uber Becoming the Robotaxi Middleman
Mahaney’s first point is that Uber becomes the network orchestrator for autonomous fleets. Management is pushing the same story. Uber is live in seven AV cities and targets 15 cities by year end. It says partner vehicles reach “mid to high 20s, low 30s” trips per vehicle per day. The CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi, put the goal simply: “Our ambition is straightforward, to become the world’s leading commercialization platform for autonomous vehicles.”
The second point is delivery and cash generation. Delivery revenue grew 28%, and segment operating income rose 38% to $1.05B. Trailing free cash flow exceeded $10 billion for the first time. Management also said bigger buybacks will return in “months, not quarters.”
Most of the Street agrees. Of 51 analysts, 9 rate it Strong Buy, 33 Buy, 8 Hold and 1 Sell. Over the last 30 days, analysts revised 2027 EPS estimates up 7 times and down 2 times. Even so, the consensus dipped to $4.5379 from $4.6559 a month earlier. The CEO is adding shares: he bought 141,000 shares on the open market at $70.9642.
A skeptic would point out that the $150 target only works if the market starts treating AV spending as an asset. Management itself warned of a future “P&L impact.”
Lyft and DoorDash Fell Too, but Uber Shows the Widest Gap
The selloff spread across the group. Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) is down 14.92% year to date at $16.48. Its average target of $19.47 implies just 18.1% upside, and 31 of 45 analysts rate it Hold.
DoorDash (NASDAQ:DASH) is down 18.75% year to date and 9.6% over the past month. Trading at $184.01, it is well below its $257.37 target, which implies 39.9% upside. It carries 9 Strong Buy, 27 Buy and 10 Hold ratings.
Uber has the largest consensus upside in the group. DoorDash comes close, but it trades at a forward P/E of 38, compared with Uber’s 16.
Uber Has Lagged the S&P 500 by a Wide Margin This Year
At $69.31, Uber has 45.5% upside to the $100.86 consensus target set by 51 analysts. Shares are down 15.18% year to date and 26.46% over the past year. The S&P 500 has gained 12.86% year to date.
The valuation now looks low. Uber trades at about 16 times forward earnings with a free cash flow yield near 6.9%.
Robotaxi Execution Will Decide Whether Uber’s Discount Closes
The bull case improves if Uber reaches 15 AV cities on schedule, keeps Waymo alongside newer partners and resumes big buybacks. If that happens, a re-rating toward $100 looks reasonable. Risks grow if AV spending cuts into margins, Waymo walks away, or competition like Brazil’s “enormous amount of competition” starts dragging on bookings. In that case, today’s low multiple would turn out to be a value trap.
The balance of evidence leans bullish. A CEO buying stock on the open market and a mid-teens multiple on a business with $10 billion of free cash flow make a strong case. Mahaney’s $150 is the best-case outcome. The consensus target of roughly $100 is the more realistic goal.
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