[US-China Summit] Tomorrow, September 24th, an important meeting that could sway global politics and the economy will take place.
[US-China Summit]
This is the US-China summit between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
And ahead of the meeting, Japan has also made a move.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi explained at a press conference in New York on the 23rd regarding the Japan-US summit held the previous day,
“With the US-China summit in mind, we exchanged views on various issues surrounding China”
she explained.
In other words, for Japan, this US-China summit is
not just “a matter between the US and China.”
Taiwan, semiconductors, tariffs, critical minerals, and national security.
Issues directly linked to Japan’s economy and security could all move at once.
Why a US-China summit now?
US-China relations are currently not just a simple case of “countries that don’t get along.”
They compete in trade.
They vie for hegemony in AI and semiconductors.
They face military tensions over the Taiwan issue.
However, at the same time,
US companies do business in the Chinese market, and Chinese companies are also deeply connected to US financial markets and technology.
It is also difficult to completely decouple.
That is why both countries,
are…
“Compete, but avoid conflict.”
This is a very difficult relationship to manage.
This meeting is a venue to see how far they can go in establishing rules for that.
What Japan is most concerned about is “Taiwan.”
For Japan, Taiwan is one of the biggest issues.
The Taiwan Strait is very close to Japan,
and the islands of Okinawa Prefecture are in the vicinity.
Furthermore, Taiwan occupies an important position in the global semiconductor supply.
If a large-scale military conflict were to occur in the Taiwan Strait,
it would not only affect national security,
but also semiconductors.
Smartphones.
Automobiles.
Logistics.
Financial markets.
And energy transport.
The impact could spread to all of these areas.
That is why, for the Japanese government, stability in the Taiwan Strait
is both a diplomatic issue and an economic one.
The “US-China deal” that Japan is wary of
What is currently being watched with caution in Japan and Taiwan is,
the scenario that President Trump might make some kind of concession on the Taiwan issue in exchange for prioritizing an economic agreement with China.
Of course, no such agreement has been decided at this point.
This point is important.
It is that “concerns have been raised,”
and not that
“the United States has decided to abandon Taiwan.”
That is why Prime Minister Takaichi is believed to have met with President Trump just before the US-China summit to convey Japan’s position.
Semiconductors are also a huge point of contention
Alongside the Taiwan issue, semiconductors are equally important.
To improve AI performance, a large quantity of high-performance semiconductors is required.
For that reason, the United States
has been strengthening export controls to China
regarding advanced semiconductors,
semiconductor manufacturing equipment,
and AI-related chips.
Meanwhile, China is rushing to develop its own domestic semiconductors.
In other words, the AI competition is
a battle over who can secure the supply chain.
This summit will likely be a major turning point.
It is not just a competition over services like ChatGPT.
“Who controls the semiconductors that power AI”
has become a national strategy.
Since Japan has many strong companies in semiconductor manufacturing equipment and materials, changes in US and Chinese policies will also affect Japanese companies.
And the Chinese side also made a move just before the summit.
On the 23rd, Chinese judicial and public security authorities released guidelines for dealing with crimes involving fentanyl-related substances.
Fentanyl is a powerful synthetic opioid, and deaths from overdoses have become a major social issue in the United States.
The US has been demanding action regarding the raw materials flowing in from China.
Therefore, the fact that China released new guidelines just before the US-China summit is drawing attention.
In diplomacy,
“moving slightly on what the other party wants before the meeting”
is sometimes done to set the stage for negotiations.
This time, too, it must be viewed in that context.
So, how does this relate to the lives of Japanese people?
It relates quite a bit.
If US-China relations stabilize,
anxiety over global trade may decrease,
and it may become easier for companies to invest.
On the other hand, if the conflict intensifies,
semiconductor regulations.
Tariffs.
Export controls on critical minerals.
Supply chain fragmentation.
These are some of the things that may progress.
As a result,
Smartphones.
Computers.
Automobiles.
Home appliances.
AI services.
Prices and supply of these and other items will be affected.
In other words, the US-China summit is,
not just diplomatic news from a distant country.
5 points to watch for tomorrow
In the news following the summit, it will be easier to understand if you look for at least these five points.
-
What language is used regarding Taiwan
-
Whether there are changes to semiconductor and AI regulations
-
Whether there are tariff reductions or grace periods
-
Whether there is a change in China’s critical mineral policy
-
Whether there is a concrete agreement on the fentanyl issue
And another important point is,
“what was not agreed upon”
.
In summit meetings, there are cases where actual policies do not change even if big smiles and handshakes are reported.
What you should look at is not the performance, but
tariff rates.
export controls.
Taiwan policy.
semiconductor regulations.
and other concrete policies.
A major test for Japanese diplomacy as well
During this visit to the US, Prime Minister Takaichi is
meeting with President Trump.
giving a speech at the UN General Assembly.
meeting with President Zelenskyy.
and coordinating China policy with an eye on the US-China summit.
carrying these out.
In the world right now,
the United States.
China.
Russia.
The Middle East.
Multiple geopolitical risks like these are shifting simultaneously.
Amidst this, Japan must
maintain its alliance with the United States while
also maintaining relations with China, one of its largest trading partners.
Tomorrow’s US-China summit
is not just an event to observe the relationship between President Trump and President Xi Jinping.
Behind the scenes,
where will Japan stand?
Will stability in the Taiwan Strait be preserved?
Will the competition in AI and semiconductors intensify further?
It looks to be a very significant day for considering the global economy in the latter half of 2026.
Reference materials:
・Prime Minister’s Office of Japan
・Reuters, September 23, 2026