September 23, 2026

US Economy 5-Minute Review | 2026-09-22

The Current State of the US Economy

In short, prices are flat, employment is increasing, and production growth is slowing. Even after the rate hike, the US 10-year yield fell from the previous business day. We will not decide whether the economy as a whole is strong or weak based on a single figure, and will use tonight’s manufacturing survey as the next clue.

Prices: The August CPI was 3.4% year-on-year, the same as in July. The most recent core PCE was 3.3% year-on-year for July; do not confuse this with the August figure.
Economy/Employment: Non-farm payrolls in August increased by 162,000 from the previous month, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%. Meanwhile, industrial production was 0.0% month-on-month.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell from 5.01% to 4.96%. The effective federal funds rate is flat at 3.88%. We do not collectively call long-term interest rates and short-term effective interest rates a “decline in interest rates.”

What Changed Today

US 10-Year Treasury Yield: It fell 0.05 points from 5.01% on September 18 to 4.96% on September 21. This is a move in the opposite direction of last week’s rate hike, but we cannot conclude from this alone that expectations of a rate cut are the cause.
S&P 500: The US market closing price on September 21 was 7,764.70. It rose 1.49% from 7,650.50 on the previous business day. Stock prices are stored values of secondary information, and we do not consider Fed policy changes to be the sole reason for the rise.

Industrial production and CPI are not figures released today. In the following, they are treated as the most recent published values.

Today’s US Economic Topics

September 16 | FOMC raises policy interest rate by 0.25 points

The FOMC raised the target range to 3.75–4.00%. In its statement, it assessed that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace and inflation remains high. This is the Fed’s explanation and does not promise the future direction of stock prices.

Market Outlook (Article Analysis): If prices remain high, concerns about additional rate hikes could become a burden on interest-rate-sensitive stocks. On the other hand, expectations for the economy and corporate earnings may support stock prices.

Official Information: Fed FOMC Statement

September 18 | Fed Vice Chair Bowman mentions bank stress test reform

Vice Chair Bowman, who is in charge of bank supervision, explained that they will consider a final proposal in the coming weeks to increase the transparency of stress tests and curb year-to-year fluctuations in capital requirements. This is a statement regarding bank supervision, not a speech on monetary policy.

Market Outlook (Article Analysis): If the final rule increases the predictability of capital planning, it could be a support for banks. However, the burden on each bank and the impact on earnings depend on the content of the rule.

Official Information: Original text of Fed speech

Latest US Economic Dashboard

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 3.4% (year-on-year) | Flat This is the price of goods and services purchased by households. July 3.4% → August 3.4%. We will confirm whether inflation is slowing sufficiently toward 2%.
Core PCE Price Index: 3.3% (YoY) | Unchanged Prices excluding food and energy. June 3.3% → July 3.3%. The scope and calculation method differ from CPI, and the August figure has not yet been released.
Non-farm Payrolls: +162,000 (MoM) | Increase in growth Change in the number of employees at companies, etc. July +21,000 → August +162,000. This could be a factor supporting consumption, but the sustainability of employment cannot be judged from a single month’s figure.
Unemployment Rate: 4.1% | Unchanged The percentage of people who are willing to work and are looking for a job. July 4.1% → August 4.1%. Read in conjunction with the number of employed persons.
Real GDP: 1.5% (QoQ annualized) | Growth slowed Growth in overall US production. Jan-Mar 2.1% → Apr-Jun 1.5%. This alone does not confirm a slowdown in the entire US economy.
Industrial Production: 0.0% (MoM) | Growth slowed Production in factories, mines, and utilities. July +0.2% → August 0.0%. We will look at the direction of orders in tonight’s regional manufacturing survey.
Effective FF Rate: 3.88% | Unchanged Measured interest rate based on short-term fund transactions from the previous business day. Sept 17 target 3.88% → 18th target 3.88% (published on the 21st). This is separate from the FOMC’s target range.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.96% | Declined Representative long-term interest rate. Sept 18 5.01% → 21st 4.96%. It relates to corporate financing and stock valuations, but stock prices also move due to other factors.

The path through which numbers reach stocks

From prices to interest rates: If CPI and Core PCE remain unchanged, caution regarding additional rate hikes may persist. We will confirm with the next PCE.
From economy to sales: While increased employment can support consumption, production growth has slowed. We will check orders and inventories to see if demand differs by industry.
From interest rates to stock prices: If long-term interest rates fall, it may support the valuation of high-PER stocks. However, if the background is economic anxiety, a worsening of sales forecasts may offset this.

Checking market price answers

S&P 500 and USD/JPY are not official statistics, but secondary information obtained from nikkei225jp.com’s US market conditions.

S&P 500: 7,764.70 (Sept 21 US market close = 05:01 JST on the 22nd). +1.49% from the previous business day’s close of 7,650.50.
USD/JPY: 157.188 yen (Value displayed by the source at 21:21 JST on Sept 22). This is not the value at the same time as the S&P 500 close. Since the comparison basis cannot be confirmed, the rate of change is not provided here.

Spillover to Japanese stocks

Conditions for a tailwind: If the US 10-year yield continues to decline and corporate orders and earnings forecasts remain intact, it could support the valuation of interest-rate-sensitive Japanese growth stocks.
Conditions for a headwind: If tonight’s survey shows weak orders and the slowdown in demand for the US continues, we must be cautious about the volume and profit margins of export companies.
Checking exchange rates: Do not assume profit growth based solely on the dollar-yen level; verify each company’s assumed exchange rate, local costs, and sales volume in their financial results.

KPIs to check next

US side: The direction of new orders, shipments, and employment in tonight’s Richmond Fed survey, the PCE at the end of the month, and the next employment report.
Market side: Which way the US 10-year yield moves from 4.96%. We will also check the observation times for stock prices and exchange rates.
Corporate side: US sales volume, order backlog, days of inventory, company-assumed exchange rates, and financing costs.

Conditions under which the hypothesis collapses

Regional surveys move in the opposite direction to national production and ISM data, and the view of “manufacturing weakness” is not supported.
Even if long-term interest rates fall, growth stocks do not rise, and other factors such as profit forecasts dominate.
The assumed ripple effects on Japanese companies’ orders, sales, and profit margins cannot be confirmed.

Reading indicators together

Prices

The August CPI was 3.4% year-on-year, unchanged from July. The July core PCE was also 3.3% year-on-year, unchanged from June. Both are rates of increase, not meaning that the price level has fallen.

Employment

Non-farm payrolls in August increased by 162,000 from the previous month, an expansion from the 21,000 increase in July. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%; we will check the volume of employment and the percentage of unemployed separately.

Economy and Production

Real GDP for the April-June quarter grew at an annualized rate of +1.5%, a slower pace than the +2.1% in the January-March quarter. Industrial production in August was 0.0% month-on-month, lower than the +0.2% in July. We will not use the slowdown in GDP and production growth to make a definitive statement about the overall US economy.

Policy Rate and Long-term Interest Rates

The FOMC target range is 3.75-4.00%. The effective federal funds rate calculated from actual short-term transactions was 3.88% for September 18, which was announced on the 21st. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.96% on September 21, down from the previous business day.

Initial reports, revision history, and actual acquisition times are maintained in internal data, and the main text prioritizes comparison with the latest published values.

Notes on the data

Macro indicators are based on primary information from each publishing agency, and the target period and publication date are treated separately. Comparisons may change if revised values are released.
The S&P 500 and USD/JPY are saved snapshots of secondary information. There is no guarantee that the price will be the same at the time of publication, and the reference time for the price is distinguished from the acquisition time.
Since market forecasts have not been acquired, the difference from the forecast (surprise) is not determined. The impact on the market is an analysis based on conditions.

Key indicators for tonight (1 major item)

September 22 (Tue) 23:00 | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (September)
This is a survey that asks manufacturers in the eastern US about shipments, new orders, employment, etc. Since industrial production in August was flat, we will focus on whether changes in orders can serve as a clue to the outlook for nationwide production. However, we do not judge the entire US based on a survey of one district alone. The date and time were found on the GMO Click Securities Economic Indicator Calendar and verified with the official Richmond Fed schedule.

Tonight’s official comments and monetary policy

September 22 (Tue) 23:20 | Speech by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson
The theme is the modernization of the discount window and the functioning of the US Treasury market. We will focus on his views regarding market liquidity. We do not immediately interpret the speech theme as a notice of a change in the policy interest rate. Official Fed Schedule

Checkpoints for tomorrow and beyond

September 23 (Wed) 22:45 | S&P Global US PMI Flash Report (September): We will look at manufacturing, services, and the composite index together to confirm the direction of business sentiment, prices, and employment. S&P Global Official Schedule
September 30 (Wed) 21:30 | US PCE Price Index (August) / GDP (April-June Final Estimate): We will confirm the combination of underlying inflation and growth rate. US Department of Commerce BEA Official Schedule
October 2 (Fri) 21:30 | US Employment Statistics (September): We will check the number of employed persons, unemployment rate, and wages together. US Bureau of Labor Statistics Official Schedule

After the scheduled events pass, we will check not only the figures but also how US interest rates, stock prices, and USD/JPY reacted at what point.

References

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