US economy beats forecasts with 115,000 new jobs added in April; pound and UK bonds stronger as Starmer pledges to stay on as PM – business live

Today’s US jobs report also shows how the federal government has shrunk since Donald Trump won the presidential election in November 2024, and Elon Musk began his DOGE job cuts in 2025.

Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 348,000, or 11.5%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says.

There were job gains in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade in April, while federal government employment continued to decline.

Here’s the details from today’s non-farm payroll report.

• In April, health care added 37,000 jobs, with gains in nursing and residential care facilities (+15,000) and home health care services (+11,000).

• Transportation and warehousing employment increased by 30,000 in April, reflecting a gain in couriers and messengers (+38,000).

• Retail trade added 22,000 jobs in April. Employment increased in warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (+18,000) and in building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+13,000). These gains were partially offset by job losses in department stores (-7,000) and in electronics and appliance retailers (-2,000).

• Employment in social assistance continued to trend up in April (+17,000), reflecting a gain of 24,000 jobs in individual and family services.

• Federal government employment continued to decline in April, with a drop of 9,000 jobs.

• Employment in information continued to trend down in April (-13,000), with telecommunications losing 3,000 jobs, and motion picture and sound recording industries jobs down by 6,000.

• Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

The US unemployment rate remains static at 4.3%, today’s jobs report shows.

Newsflash: the US economy added more jobs than expected in April.

Non-farm payrolls rose by 115,000 last month, the Bureau for Labor Statistics reports, beating forecasts of a 62,000 increase.

That’s still a slowdown compared with March, though – where the NFP has been revised up to 185,000 jobs, from 178,000 initially.

But February’s data is even worse than previously thought – payrolls that month are now estimated to have fallen by 156,000, down from a previous estimate of a 133,000 decline.

Those revisions mean employment in February and March combined is 16,000 lower than previously reported.

Perhaps surprisingly, the US dollar has weakened against a basket of rival currencies, despite the flare-up in the Gulf between the US and Iran overnight.

The dollar index is down 0.12%, while the greenback is still down half a cent against the pound.

Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebury, says:

“The renewed hostilities between the US and Iran in the past few hours should be bullish for the dollar, but the greenback has actually lost ground so far this morning.

Investors seem to be taking the view that this latest flare up is more of a bump in the road, rather than an impenetrable wall.

We suspect that this may be another classic example of Trump’s “escalate to de-escalate” strategy, and potentially a tactic to pressure Iran to compromise prior to next week’s meeting between the president and Xi Jinping.

On the recovery in UK bond prices today, Craig Veysey, fixed income lead at Guinness Global Investors, says:

“The local election results add to UK political uncertainty, but they do not appear to represent the worst-case scenario of an imminent leadership challenge.”

The local election results are likely to trigger another bout of uncertainty, consultancy Oxford Economics have warned.

Their economist Alexander Harbey explains:

“The key risk is that any instability triggered by these results — such as a leadership challenge — causes markets to lose faith in the government’s fiscal plans, driving bond yields up further and weakening economic growth dynamics”.

“In the longer term, an increasingly fragmented political landscape, rising support for parties less committed to fiscal discipline, and the expected success of pro-independence parties in Scotland and Wales all add to the UK’s political uncertainty.”

“This makes it more difficult for markets to price in political change and will weigh on business confidence and investment.”

The Iran was is also hurting Germany’s industrial base, which has also been buffeted by Donald Trump’s trade wars and the Russia-Ukraine war.

German industrial production fell by 0.7% in March, weaker than expectations of a 0.5% rise.

Analysts at ING say:

German industrial production weakened further in March as the war in the Middle East started to take its toll. The just-released industrial data for March illustrate the struggle of German industry to gain momentum in the first quarter of the year.

Not only was the February drop revised downwards, with a 0.7% month-on-month decline in March, but industrial production in the full first quarter was more than 1% weaker than in the final quarter of 2025.

Kir Starmer’s vow to stay on as PM has reassured markets somewhat, pushing up the pound and pushing down bond yields, reports Reuters, adding:

“I think it’s an initial relief rally,” said Lloyd Harris, head of fixed income at Premier Miton Investors. “But ultimately I think the fireworks are still to come.”

“I would say it’s a small net positive for Gilts that actually the Greens haven’t done better,” Harris said, adding that it reduced the chances that the left-wing party, which would likely increase spending, could win a general election.

However… many results are still to be declared.

Bond vigilantes are “lurking” despite the small recovery in UK gilt prices this morning, suggests Neil Wilson, investor strategist at Saxo UK:

Election results look very bad for Labour, very good for Reform. We’ll see just how much pressure it brings to bear on the prime minister.

Gilt markets are steady at the moment but the bulk of counting hasn’t even begun. The 10yr gilt yield is holding below 4.9% and the 30yr is also off a few ticks below 5.6%. There’s a chance the political scene goes a bit woo-woo and bond markets are very attuned to this. Yields are not doing much this morning but remember we hit 28-year highs on the 30yr earlier this week and the bond vigilantes are lurking.

Political risks associated with a Starmer/Reeves defenestration are bound up with already rising fiscal and inflationary risks for the UK economy.

Sterling was also pretty steady with GBPUSD holding the 1.360 level as it tracks back within the $1.34-36 range of the last month after a couple of stalled attempts to break out in the last two sessions on the improving macro backdrop which has since taken a bit of a turn south.