US Fed Meeting 2026 Live Updates: Hike or hold? Wall Street awaits Warsh’s verdict
US Fed FOMC meeting live updates: Fed’s election-week rate decision puts focus on December outlook
There is no law or formal rule preventing the US Federal Reserve from raising or lowering interest rates ahead of an election. However, the central bank has traditionally avoided making changes to its benchmark rate as voters prepare to head to the polls. This practice has been broken on previous occasions, including during the 2022 midterm elections.
On November 2, 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 75-basis-point rate hike, six days before the midterm elections. Inflation was a major concern during the campaign, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching 9.1% year-on-year in June 2022, its highest level in 40 years and the biggest annual increase since November 1981.
The Fed also cut interest rates by 50 basis points on October 29, 2008, shortly before the US presidential election on November 4. The move came amid an escalating global financial crisis and formed part of broader efforts by monetary and fiscal policymakers to prevent a deeper economic downturn.
With inflation currently well below its 2022 peak and no immediate signs of a financial collapse, the Fed is expected to follow its usual practice and leave rates unchanged at this week’s meeting.
However, inflation risks remain, and the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike following the December meeting at 75.1%. Markets will therefore closely watch Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference for clues about how policymakers view incoming inflation and employment data over the next six weeks.