US Fed Meeting LIVE: Treasury yields, bitcoin, stock markets feel pressure ahead of FOMC's rate decision

US Fed Meeting LIVE: The United States Federal Reserve’s two-day meet concludes today, and anticipation is high that the central bank will raise interest rates for the first time in three years. The 12-member committee will announce its decision at 18:00 GMT or 11:30 pm IST on 16 September.

What is the market expecting?

The markets are pricing a better than 90% chance of a 25 basis-point hike from the US Fed, Bloomberg reported citing swaps data.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool quoted by AFP, the data fuelled market expectations of a rate hike at this week’s meeting, with investors giving it a probability of more than 92%.

If it happens, this would be the first US Fed rate hike since 2023, when Kevin Warsh’s predecessor, Jerome Powell, led the central bank’s post-pandemic hiking campaign.

Why is this meeting important?

The US Central Bank has held US Fed rates steady since January 2026, choosing to wait to gauge the effects of energy price shocks and to let the impact of tariffs on prices ripple through the economy. However, in the previous US Fed meeting, a quarter of the voting members called for an immediate US Fed rate hike, dissenting from the other nine voting members.

Notably, most watchers believe the US Fed is set to hike interest rates today. However, this would come against the backdrop of continued pressure from US President Donald Trump for the opposite action.

Trump was at loggerheads with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s predecessor Jerome Powell on the issue. He argued that sharply lower borrowing costs could help unleash a significant economic expansion, putting his preference for easier monetary policy at odds with the Fed’s rate-setting approach.

What should investors watch?

• A rate hike from the Fed could put more upward pressure on US Treasury yields, which are already hovering near multi-decade highs. Higher yields typically translate into increased borrowing costs across the economy, adding pressure on consumers already dealing with elevated energy prices and higher import costs amid ongoing trade tensions.
• The move could also reinforce the recent sell-off in global bonds, as investors demand greater compensation for inflation risks and rising government debt levels.
• Besides the rate decision, investors are also expected to focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s post-decision remarks for clues on the inflation outlook and the likely path of interest rates.

What is the likely market impact?

“Market turmoil is to be expected across all asset classes if Warsh fails to hike rates,” Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets told the publication. She added that inflation concerns could revive the debasement trade, which is positive for Bitcoin, but “bond yields mayhem and general market volatility will probably take it down first before it goes up.”

For households, the combination of higher borrowing costs and elevated energy prices could further squeeze budgets. This could weigh on consumer demand if households have less disposable income available for spending.

Cryptocurrencies are under pressure today after the US Senate did not pass a contested Clarity Act regulatory bill. Industry sentiment is on the down low as watchers now await a potential interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Inflation fears, soaring US bond yields and higher interest rates could further damp demand for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Impact from the likely Fed rate hike could be particularly relevant as hyperscalers announce massive spending plans to expand AI infrastructure.