US Leading Economic Index rises 0.2% in July, ending four-year contraction streak

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index climbed 0.2% in July to 99.5, marking the fourth time in six months the gauge has ticked upward. More notably, the six-month growth rate turned positive for the first time in over four years, a milestone that suggests the US economy may finally be pulling out of a prolonged soft patch.
The reading landed above consensus expectations, which had penciled in a flat month. After a revised 0.1% decline in June, July’s uptick looks less like a blip and more like a pattern trying to establish itself.
What the numbers actually say
The LEI’s six-month annualized growth rate hit +0.2% for the January-to-July period. The last time this figure was in positive territory was sometime in early 2022.
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The Coincident Economic Index rose 0.2% in July to 114.8. The Lagging Index matched that pace with a 0.2% gain to 120.4.
Conference Board Senior Manager Justyna Zabinska-La Monica pointed to jobless claims and building permits as the key drivers behind July’s improvement. Both components helped offset ongoing weakness in consumer expectations.
“The Leading Index for the US ticked up in July,” Zabinska-La Monica stated, noting the broader recovery trend taking shape.
The consumer problem that won’t go away
Consumer expectations remain stubbornly weak, and that matters because consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of US economic activity. Rising living costs are the primary culprit.
This tension between improving headline data and persistent consumer pressure is central to the Conference Board’s relatively modest growth forecast. The organization is projecting 1.9% real GDP growth for both 2026 and 2027. The 1.9% figure reflects AI-driven business investment, which the Conference Board sees as a genuine growth catalyst, offset by consumers who are stretched thin due to rising living costs.
What’s driving growth beneath the surface
The building permits component signals construction activity that won’t materialize for months. Strength here suggests that builders are betting on continued demand despite affordability challenges in the housing market.
Jobless claims indicate that the labor market remains resilient, providing a floor for consumer income even if spending sentiment remains cautious.
The next LEI release is scheduled for September 18.

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