US Market Lens | Slight rebound on lower interest rates. Focus on rising oil prices and employment data [October 2, 2026]
US stocks saw a slight rebound.
The market was supported by a decline in long-term interest rates, which had been rising earlier in the trading session. Meanwhile, oil prices rose significantly, leaving concerns about inflation lingering.
In this report, we analyze market movements from three perspectives: the Index Lens, the Capital Lens, and the Risk Lens.
※ As of 6:01 AM JST on October 2, 2026. Data reflects the regular trading session closing prices on October 1 in the US.
① Index Lens | Rebounded, but gains were small
The three major US indices all saw slight gains.
・S&P 500: 7,666.45 (+0.19% from the previous day)
・Dow Jones Industrial Average: 50,926.56 (+0.04% from the previous day)
・Nasdaq Composite: 26,871.60 (+0.04% from the previous day)
The S&P 500, which includes a broad range of large US companies, halted a three-day losing streak. However, the gains were limited.
We cannot conclude that the market has shifted to a strong uptrend based solely on the fact that it ‘rebounded.’ We will want to see if buying continues in the days ahead.
Closing prices used are those consistent between the Associated Press and US financial newspapers. Reuters reported the S&P 500 at 7,666.48 and the Dow at 50,926.74, showing minor discrepancies. The reason for these differences has not been confirmed.
② Capital Lens | Lower interest rates support stock prices
A key movement on this day was the decline in US Treasury yields during the session.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to approximately 5.34% at one point before falling to about 5.23% by the end of the session.
The value published by the US Department of the Treasury on October 1 was 5.24%, down from 5.29% the previous day. Government-published figures and market closing values do not match perfectly due to differences in observation times and calculation methods.
Why does a decline in interest rates support stock prices?
When bonds are bought and their prices rise, their yields fall.
When interest rates fall, concerns about rising corporate borrowing costs ease. Additionally, the perceived overvaluation of stocks compared to bonds, which offer interest, tends to diminish.
In this instance, it is believed that this decline in interest rates supported the rebound in stocks. However, if a decline in interest rates reflects a worsening economy, stock prices can also fall.
What about the movements of the dollar and industry sectors?
The dollar showed strength during trading. However, specific exchange rate figures are not included because the values at the same time could not be verified across multiple sources.
By sector, energy and information technology rose.
What I want to distinguish here is the difference between “stock price increases” and “actual capital inflows.” Even if a sector’s stock price rises, we do not know how much capital has actually flowed into investment trusts for that sector.
③ Risk Lens | Rising oil prices and tonight’s employment statistics
While lower interest rates provided a sense of relief, oil prices rose significantly.
December Brent crude oil futures settled at $102.31 per barrel on October 1, an increase of approximately 4.4% from the previous day.
Concerns over fuel supply and the situation in the Middle East are pushing prices up.
If oil prices remain high, they could spill over into transportation costs and commodity prices, potentially prolonging inflation. Just because interest rates fell for one day does not mean that concerns about inflation or additional rate hikes have been resolved.
Next, we focus on the employment statistics.
The US employment statistics for September are scheduled to be released at 21:30 JST on October 2. As of the time of writing, they have not yet been released.
The points to watch are wages and the unemployment rate, in addition to the change in the number of employed persons.
・If employment and wages are too strong: Concern that inflation will continue and interest rates will rise
・If employment is too weak: Concern about economic deterioration and corporate profits
It is not as simple as “strong numbers mean higher stock prices, weak numbers mean lower stock prices.” It is important to look at the reaction of interest rates and stock prices after the announcement together.
Reviewing the previous forecast
Last time, for the S&P 500 closing price on October 1 in the US, I set the base scenario at 7,620–7,695.
The actual closing price was 7,666.45. It was within the range of the base scenario.
It rose by approximately 0.19% from the previous reference value of 7,651.54.
However, interest rates fell more than previously anticipated. I evaluate the fact that the closing price fell within the expected range separately from the ability to predict the reasons for the price movement. One result alone is not enough to judge that prediction accuracy is high.
Next forecast | 3 scenarios for October 2 in the US
The next target is the regular trading closing price on October 2 in the US after the employment statistics are released. The reference is the S&P 500 at 7,666.45.
Bullish scenario: 7,720–7,820
Relative to reference closing price: +0.70% to +2.00%
Assumes a scenario where employment slows moderately and interest rates continue to decline without intensifying concerns about an economic downturn.
Base scenario: 7,610–7,720
Relative to reference closing price: -0.74% to +0.70%
Assumes a scenario where there are no major surprises in the employment statistics, and the support from lower interest rates is balanced against caution regarding rising oil prices.
Bearish scenario: 7,500–7,610
Relative to reference closing price: -2.17% to -0.74%
Assumes a scenario where interest rates rise again due to strong employment and wage figures, or where concerns about an economic downturn intensify suddenly due to weak figures.
The central forecast is the base scenario.
These are proprietary conditional scenarios and not prediction intervals based on statistical models. Depending on announcements or sudden news, the outcome may fall outside all ranges. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
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