US midterms 2026: Economy, Trump, Congress and what voters are saying ahead of polls

The findings are based on a survey of 3,554 US adults, including 2,779 registered voters. Here are 10 key takeaways from the report:

Economy is the issue voters most want candidates to discuss

Economic issues top the list of subjects voters want congressional candidates to address during the campaign. By a major margin, that is 51% voters specifically point to prices and affordability as major concerns.

Cost of living is at the heart of the economic concern

Within the economic category, cost of living and affordability emerge as particularly important. The report’s chart shows the net economy category at 29%, with cost of living and affordability accounting for 15% and the general economy for 7% of responses.

Neither party has a clear economic advantage

The economic policy debate remains closely balanced. 37% of Americans say they agree more with the Democratic Party on economic policy, compared with 36% who say they agree more with the Republican Party. The figures show that from the period before the start of Donald Trump‘s second term, when Republicans had an advantage on economic policy.

The budget deficit is no longer a Republican advantage

The Republican Party previously held an advantage among Americans on policies dealing with the federal budget deficit. The latest survey shows that advantage has disappeared. 33% agree more with Democrats on deficit policy, while 31% agree more with Republicans, with another 33% choosing neither party.

Economic concerns are more prominent than several other campaign issues

The economy stands ahead of several traditionally important election issues in the survey. Healthcare, immigration, foreign policy and other policy areas receive lower levels of voter attention when respondents are asked what they most want candidates to discuss. The report’s chart puts the net economy category at 29%, compared with 9% for government ethics and reform and 7% for immigration.

Democrats currently have an edge in the generic congressional ballot

The economic focus comes as Democrats hold a modest lead in voters’ current congressional preferences. 43% of registered voters say they would vote for a Democratic candidate in their district if the election were held today, while 37% choose a Republican candidate. Another 20% are either unsure or would choose another candidate.

Democrats also show greater early engagement

The survey finds a difference in how closely supporters of the two parties are following the election. 39% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they have thought a lot about the election, compared with 22% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. The report notes that Republicans had held a modest advantage on similar engagement measures at the same stage of the 2022 midterm campaign.

Trump remains a major factor in how voters view their choices

The economy is not the only issue shaping the campaign. 42% of registered voters say they think of their congressional vote as a vote against Trump, while 22% describe it as a vote for him. The survey finds that views of Trump are a bigger factor for voters now than views of then-President Joe Biden were at a comparable point four years earlier.

Public opinion on the economy sits within a broader partisan divide

The parties hold advantages on different policy areas. Republicans have an advantage on crime, with 43% saying they agree more with the Republican Party compared with 29% for Democrats, while Republicans also have a five-point advantage on immigration. Democrats have larger advantages on healthcare, environmental policy, abortion and education.

The election is unfolding amid deep dissatisfaction with Congress

Only25% of Americans have a favourable view of Congress, according to the survey, down from 32% in August and close to the lowest levels recorded by Pew. Unfavourable views stand at 72%. The low rating for Congress adds another layer to an election in which voters are placing significant attention on economic conditions and what candidates propose to address them.

The Pew findings point to an election conversation where the economy is being experienced less as an abstract policy question and more through prices, affordability and household costs. At the same time, neither party has established a clear advantage on economic policy. It leaves economic concerns as a central issue for the 2026 midterm campaign, while voters also weigh their views of President Trump, the parties and Congress itself.