[US Stock Flash: 9/25] Stocks are resilient despite the double whammy of high interest rates and oil prices! What are the tech-led battles and the 'unexpected dark clouds …

The US market showed astonishing resilience supported by tech stocks, even while exposed to the double headwinds of rising interest rates and high oil prices. However, behind the scenes, the escalating situation in the Middle East, the stalemate in US-China trade negotiations, and serious power and cost issues shaking the AI development field are rapidly emerging.

What is happening in the US market right now? We will provide a clear and thorough explanation of the latest news and market trends that investors absolutely must know!

📊 1. Today’s US Market Summary: Stock market withstands rising interest rates and oil prices

Major indices saw mixed results, with the day swayed by rising long-term interest rates and a renewed surge in oil prices.

• NY Dow: $51,349.98 (-0.31%)

• S&P 500: 7,704.13 (-0.02%)

• NASDAQ: 26,939.37 (+0.01%)

• Russell 2000: 2,835.57 (-0.11%)

• WTI Crude Oil Futures: $95.19 (+3.29%)

• Gold Futures: $4,300.90 (-0.41%)

• USD/JPY: Around 158.91 yen (+0.37%)

• Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin $84,232 / Ethereum $2,687

The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.213%, breaking through the 5.2% threshold. Although the sharp rise in long-term interest rates acted as a drag, the NASDAQ maintained positive territory as some tech stocks were bought. Additionally, the USD/JPY pair is hovering just below 159 yen, continuing to consolidate at high levels against the backdrop of solid US fundamentals.

🔀 2. Notable Stocks & Sector Trends: Meta runs alone, contrast between Mega Tech and Value

Looking at the stock market heatmap, the fortunes of individual stocks were clearly divided.

• Meta: Showing a sharp rise for consecutive days, running alone at +4.5% from the previous day. It is driving large-cap tech with momentum approaching a new high.

• Alphabet (Google): Remained firm at +1.3%.

• Semiconductor-related: While AMD, Intel, and Micron rose, memory-related companies such as SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate saw a soft performance.

• Healthcare (Eli Lilly): Rose +2.69%. FDA approval of its diabetes drug served as a strong buying factor.

• Software: While security-related stocks were sold, Salesforce and Datadog (+2.1%) rose, leading to mixed results.

🛢️ 3. Middle East Situation and Oil Prices: Reports of a US-Iran ‘Phased Agreement’ and the Reality of the Strait of Hormuz

Although oil prices plummeted temporarily, they have risen again to around $95 per barrel.

According to Reuters, it has been reported that the US and Iran are exploring a ‘phased agreement’ that includes the resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of economic sanctions against Iran. Because both sides are reluctant to play their trump cards first, leading to a deadlock in negotiations, a phased breakthrough is being considered.

However, there is a view that the condition of lifting sanctions in exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—which was already open for free navigation before the sanctions—offers little benefit to the US side. As a result, market wariness has not dissipated, and oil prices have been pushed upward once again.

🇺🇸🇨🇳 4. US-China Summit & Trade Negotiations: The Truth About the 1/10 Tariff Extension, Rare Earths, and Agricultural Products

In conjunction with President Xi Jinping’s visit to the US, the US Treasury Secretary announced that the US-China trade truce period (the agreement to curb tariffs and export restrictions) will be extended until January 10 of next year. The goal is to secure negotiation time with an eye on the APEC summit in November and the G20 in December.

• Difficulties in the Rare Earths Issue: The background of the US being dissatisfied with the Chinese side’s proposal has come to light, and due to concerns over prolonged negotiations, Toyo Engineering, which possesses deep-sea rare earth recovery technology, and Australian mining stocks have fallen.

Status of Agricultural Products and Aircraft Fulfillment:

• Soybeans: China is proceeding with a commitment to purchase 25 million tons annually until 2028, having achieved more than half of this year’s target.

• Other Agricultural Products: The additional $17 billion purchase commitment is difficult to achieve, and beef imports have also decreased significantly compared to the previous year.

• Boeing: Fulfillment toward the commitment to purchase 200 aircraft is progressing.

🤖 5. Meta’s Next Bet: Tamagotchi-style AI Devices and the Transformation into the ‘Second Apple’

Behind the surge in Meta’s stock price lies a groundbreaking hardware strategy.

Following the recently announced ‘Muse,’ plans have been revealed to launch a palm-sized, egg-shaped device (which can be worn like a keychain) that allows for interaction with AI, in time for the Christmas season.

In addition to being able to converse with a virtual character in the center of the screen, the device is equipped with a mechanism where users’ AIs can interact when the devices are brought close to each other.

Currently, 98% of Meta’s revenue depends on advertising. Just as Apple once established its software business through iTunes and achieved growth, Meta is attempting to shift from software to a ‘hardware + AI ecosystem.’ Although the stock price temporarily fell to $525, it has shown a rapid recovery since August.

⚠️ 6. Major Risk Shaking AI Development: Oracle’s Massive Data Center ‘Force Majeure’ Clause and Power Issues

Behind the AI boom, a very serious bottleneck is surfacing.

Oracle has notified developers of the application of a force majeure clause regarding the massive ‘Stargate Project’ data center (2.45GW scale) in New Mexico, which it is advancing together with OpenAI and SoftBank Group.

• Reason for Delay: Due to successive rejections of power supply permit applications by the Bureau of Land Management, the start of operations has been delayed by approximately 6 months.

• Impact: This move requests the right to defer rent payments for three years in the event of an operational default in 2028, which threatens to disrupt the $18 billion financing plan contributed by a syndicate of about 20 banks.

• Regional opposition: In places like Texas, local resident backlash has led to temporary suspensions of new permits and moves to prioritize audits; if this spreads to other companies (hyperscalers), it could become a shock factor for financial markets.

🏛️ 7. Fed official remarks and interest rate pricing: The impact of additional rate hikes this year and a 2026 ‘5% interest rate world’

Hawkish remarks from regional Fed presidents have followed one after another.

• NY Fed President Williams: While stating that ‘a lot of work is still needed to curb inflation,’ he expressed hope for productivity improvements through AI investment.

• Cleveland Fed President Harker: Warned that ‘in addition to tariff and oil supply shocks, demand shocks from AI capital investment are overlapping, increasing the risk that inflationary psychology will become entrenched.’

• Philadelphia Fed President Harker: Suggested that ‘small additional rate hikes may be necessary’ to address rising prices caused by demand for AI data centers and other factors.

💡 FOMC interest rate pricing status

• October 28 FOMC: 68.64% forecast for a one-step rate hike (31.36% for maintaining the status quo).

• December 9 FOMC: Views pricing in an additional rate hike are neck-and-neck at about 50%.

• Outlook for next year (2026): A total of three rate hikes are priced in, with the terminal rate expected to remain in a super-high interest rate state of 4.75% to 5.00%.

Prolonged high interest rates will be a major blow to small and medium-sized enterprises and value stocks, which face surging financing costs. On the other hand, mega-tech companies with massive core cash flows have the capacity to continue pouring funds into the AI development race even in a 5% to 9% interest rate environment, and structural polarization is expected to progress.

💡 8. Summary: Quarter-end rebalancing and the strategy investors should take now

Despite the dual pressure of rising interest rates and oil prices, the US market is showing resilience in establishing a floor. However, the macro environment, interest rate outlook, and real economic constraints such as data center power limitations are becoming increasingly severe.

With the end of the quarter (end of September) approaching, we are entering a period where portfolio rebalancing (adjustment selling) by institutional investors will become active. Caution is required as profit-taking selling is likely to occur for stocks that have risen significantly recently.

Moving forward, it will be important to carefully select growth companies with ‘overwhelming growth rates that far exceed high interest costs’ while firmly reviewing the cash ratio and sector allocation in your own portfolio.

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