[US Stocks] Major indices rebound together as interest rate hikes pause due to bond market holiday; Nasdaq rises 1.60% on strong CoreWeave earnings (November 11)

On November 11, the three major US stock indices all rebounded. After digesting the sell-off caused by the previous day’s higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI), broad buying flowed back into tech and semiconductor-related stocks, driving the Nasdaq up significantly by 400.31 points (1.60%) to 25,466.19. The S&P 500 also rose 98.45 points (1.31%) to 7,619.38, reclaiming the 7,600-point mark, while the NY Dow gained $254.60 (0.49%) to 52,486.49, and the small-cap Russell 2000 index also ended the session higher, up 0.88% at 2,846.26.

On the macro front, the US Treasury market was closed for the Veterans Day holiday, halting the rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield, which had surged to 4.983% the previous day, thereby easing additional downward pressure from interest rates. Furthermore, with no major economic indicators released, macro-driven volatility was limited, leading to a dominant trend of re-evaluating growth stocks that had been sold off the previous day due to excessive concerns over monetary tightening. Meanwhile, in the foreign exchange market, speculation regarding the widening interest rate gap between Japan and the US continued following the previous day’s strong US CPI and hawkish remarks from Fed officials, driving dollar buying and yen selling, with the dollar-yen exchange rate reaching 159.78 yen, nearing the 160 yen threshold.

In the stock market, AI cloud company CoreWeave was bought after announcing significant revenue growth and a bullish full-year outlook after the previous day’s close, once again highlighting the strength of AI data center demand. Following this, funds flowed into semiconductor and AI infrastructure-related stocks such as AMD and Broadcom, strongly driving the overall market. As the VIX, considered the fear index, fell significantly from 19.46 to 17.49, and the Fear & Greed index improved to 37, market participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of the bond market reopening the following day and key events later in the week.

📊 Market Summary (2026/11/11 Closing Price)

NY Dow: 52,486.49 (+254.60 / +0.49% from previous day)
S&P 500: 7,619.38 (+98.45 / +1.31% from previous day)
Nasdaq: 25,466.19 (+400.31 / +1.60% from previous day)
Russell 2000: 2,846.26 (+24.89 / +0.88% from previous day)
10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.983%
Dollar-Yen: 159.78 yen

⚠️ Risk Indicators

VIX: 17.49
HYG: 77.35
KRE: 72.95
PCR: 0.92 (Total)
Fear & Greed: 37

Market Trend Highlights:

⭕️ Bullish Factors

⭕️ Strong buying back in AI/semiconductor sectors following CoreWeave’s positive earnings
CoreWeave, which announced its July-September earnings after the close of trading on the 10th, was well-received as revenue reached $3.66 billion, a 168% increase year-on-year, with order backlogs expanding to $132.5 billion and full-year revenue guidance raised. Following TSMC’s October revenue (up 59.7% year-on-year) the previous day, this content confirmed the robust actual demand for AI data centers, leading to broad buying in semiconductor and hardware stocks. The technology sector led the market’s rise, pushing the Nasdaq up 1.60% and the S&P 500 up 1.31%.

⭕️ Weight of rising interest rates recedes due to US Treasury market closure for Veterans Day
The previous day, the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly topped 5% due to the higher-than-expected October CPI and a weak 10-year Treasury auction, causing a sharp rise in interest rates that led to a stock market decline. However, today the bond market was closed for the Veterans Day holiday (remaining at 4.983%). With the greatest uncertainty of daily yield fluctuations temporarily removed, the environment became conducive to short-covering and dip-buying for high-P/E growth stocks and major large-cap stocks. In the corporate bond market, the high-yield bond ETF (HYG) also rebounded from 77.18 to 77.35, indicating a stabilization in the credit environment.

⭕️ VIX index drops sharply to 17.49, steadily improving investor sentiment
Following the strong rebound in major stock indices, the VIX index, which indicates market volatility, fell by about 2 points from 19.46 the previous day to 17.49, the lowest level since November 4. The Fear & Greed index, which indicates investor sentiment, also remained firm at 33 (around 37 on a revised basis), clearly moving away from the ‘Extreme Fear’ zone it had fallen into during the previous week’s crash. The small-cap Russell 2000 also rebounded, up 0.88%, indicating a recovery in overall market risk appetite.

❌️ Bearish Factors

❌️ Sluggish performance of regional bank stocks and persistent caution over prolonged high interest rates
Even as major indices rebounded together, the regional bank ETF (KRE) continued to fall slightly from 73.09 to 72.95, left behind by the market trend. Following the previous day’s higher-than-expected October CPI and hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Waller and President Logan, expectations for an additional rate hike at the December FOMC remain high, smoldering as concerns over deposit costs and unrealized losses on bond holdings for regional financial institutions. The risk that the 10-year US Treasury yield might test 5% again after the bond market reopens is being recognized, capping the upside for some financial stocks.

❌️ Put-call ratio remains at a high level, continuing demand for downside hedging
While stock indices rebounded significantly and the VIX fell, the CBOE Total Put-Call Ratio (PCR) remained at a high level, still exceeding 0.90 at 0.92. Concerns regarding the outcome of the board’s independent investigation into Nvidia’s top management and the massive capital expenditure and interest burden of AI data centers have not been completely dispelled. While institutional investors are buying back physical stocks, they are maintaining put-buying hedges in the options market in preparation for another sharp decline.

❌️ Dollar-yen surges to 159.78 yen, raising awareness of foreign earnings and exchange rate risks
In the foreign exchange market, the dollar strengthened further against the backdrop of expectations for prolonged high interest rates in the US, with the dollar-yen exchange rate advancing by more than 1 yen from 158.76 yen to 159.78 yen, nearing the 160 yen threshold. The rapid progress of dollar appreciation acts as a headwind for future earnings conversion for US multinational corporations with high overseas sales ratios, and is also a factor that invites increased volatility in the foreign exchange market and caution regarding intervention by currency authorities. This was one of the reasons why the rise in the NY Dow (up 0.49%), which holds many traditional global blue-chip stocks, remained modest compared to the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

Future Outlook:

Regarding corporate earnings and individual events, the earnings of network equipment giant Cisco Systems and semiconductor manufacturing equipment giant Applied Materials, to be announced after the close of trading on Thursday, November 12, will be the main focus. Following the trend where strong AI infrastructure demand was confirmed by TSMC’s monthly revenue and CoreWeave’s earnings, whether bullish outlooks are shown in orders and guidance for communication equipment and semiconductor manufacturing equipment will be a litmus test for the continued rise of tech stocks. Also, attention will be paid to whether the inflow of funds into AI-related stocks will continue ahead of Nvidia’s earnings on November 17 and the scheduled Nasdaq listing (IPO) of Anthropic on the 19th.

On the economic indicators and monetary policy front, along with the movement of the US Treasury market on Thursday, November 12, when it reopens, the weekly initial jobless claims released in the morning, the US 30-year Treasury auction in the afternoon ($25 billion), and the US October Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday the 13th will be the biggest hurdles. Since the 10-year Treasury auction on the 10th was weak, if weak investor demand is exposed in the 30-year auction on the 12th, there is a risk that the 4.983% 10-year US Treasury yield will break through the 5% mark again and weigh on the stock market. Furthermore, depending on the results of the PPI on the 13th, it is highly likely that market pricing regarding the size of the rate hike at the December FOMC (0.25% or 0.50%) will fluctuate significantly.

In terms of geopolitics and the external environment, the progress of diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran and the trend of crude oil prices will continue to be important variables influencing inflation expectations. Also, regarding the dollar-yen exchange rate, which rose to 159.78 yen and is nearing the 160 yen mark, caution regarding cautionary remarks and currency intervention by Japanese currency authorities is rising further, and it is necessary to keep an eye on the risk that sudden fluctuations in the foreign exchange market will spill over into the Japanese and US stock and bond markets. The three points to check are the long-term US interest rates after the market reopens and the results of the 30-year Treasury auction, the earnings content of Cisco Systems and Applied Materials, and the trends of the US October PPI and the dollar-yen exchange rate nearing 160 yen.

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