US Stocks Rebound! Latest Trends and Future Outlook for the S&P 500 and Tech Stocks

Even with a US stock rebound, is there ‘extreme fear’? Decoding the S&P 500 and drawdowns from the latest data

Semiconductor stocks and AI lead the way! The background of the US stock rise and its impact on the yen-denominated S&P 500

1. Review of the US Stock Market

The US market rebounded for the first time in a while yesterday.

• Movement of major indices and sectors

• Market development: It was a rising pattern often seen this year, with high-tech and growth stocks (especially semiconductor-related ones) driving the overall market. On the other hand, value stocks showed lackluster movement, indicating a clear rotation by sector.

2. Impact on foreign exchange and yen-denominated assets (S&P 500)

• Foreign exchange (USD/JPY): 1 dollar = 158.6 yen (approximately 0.49% yen depreciation/dollar appreciation).

• Yen-denominated S&P 500 valuation: Including the impact of exchange rates, an increase of approximately +0.8% is calculated.

• Trends in eMAXIS Slim US Equity (S&P 500):

  • Updated projected net asset value: around 44,250 yen (previous: 44,077 yen).

  • The difference from the all-time high (45,727 yen recorded on August 14) is approximately 1,500 yen (a decrease of about 3%).

  • It remains in a position to potentially reach a new all-time high within November.

• Drawdown (decline from the all-time high): Currently about 3.2%. This is a very standard range of decline compared to trends over the past two years, and a calm response is required.

3. Commodities, Crypto Assets, Interest Rates, and Other Markets

• Commodities / Crypto Assets:

  • Gold: -0.45% (soft, falling below $4,000)

  • Silver: -1.73%

  • Bitcoin: +1.1% (trading at a level below $80,000)

• US 10-Year Treasury Yield: -1.4% (falling to a level below 5%, with bonds tending to be bought).

• Other stocks:

  • Nikkei 225 (After-hours): +0.17%

  • All Country World Index (ACWI): Nearly flat

  • Indian stocks: +1.58% (Clear recovery trend)

• Market Sentiment (Fear & Greed Index): “19” (Extreme Fear zone). Investor sentiment remains in a state of high caution.

4. Key News & Topics

• US midterm election voting begins

  • Democrats appear to have the advantage in the House, while the Senate race is tight.

  • Due to factors like mail-in ballots, final results are expected to take about a week (previous results: 4 days for the Senate, 8 days for the House).

• Trump’s announcement

• US Macroeconomic Indicators (JOLTS Job Openings)

• Earnings-related (Super Micro Computer)

5. Summary and Investment Stance

• Importance of a long-term perspective: It is important not to be swayed by short-term declines and to avoid being shaken out by keeping the long-term upward trend chart in mind.

• Today’s notable events: Announcements such as the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index are scheduled.

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