US Stocks Remain Resilient Despite Rising Long-Term Interest Rates! Latest Market Trends Driven by AI

The waves of soaring interest rates and yen carry trade unwinding… yet AI stocks and the latest developments from OpenAI and Anthropic continue to be bought

[Breaking] US long-term interest rates surpass 5.25%! A summary of NY Fed President comments and the latest earnings and funding for AI Big Tech

Today’s US Market & News Summary

1. Performance of Major Indices and Assets

The US stock market fell after the opening but recovered following comments from the New York Fed President. Although rising long-term interest rates are a burden, the stock market remains relatively resilient.

• NY Dow: 51,349.92 (-0.26%)

• S&P 500: 7,670.84 (-0.17%)

• NASDAQ: 26,797.54 (-0.09%)

• Russell 2000: 2,807.92 (-0.35%)

• Crude Oil (WTI): $89.02 (-3.87%)

• Gold: $428.20 (+0.95%)

• USD/JPY: 157.39 yen (+0.01%)

• Bitcoin: $83,515

• Ethereum: $2,691

2. Surge in US Treasury Yields (Rise in Long-Term Interest Rates)

While short-term yields fell, the rise in long-term yields is notable.

• 2-Year Treasury Yield: 4.889%

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 5.254% (highest level since 2007)

• 30-Year Treasury Yield: 5.586% (Highest level since 2002, approaching the 5.6% milestone)

Background of Rising Interest Rates and Market Impact

1. Complex Factors: It is not just the strength of the economy, but also the persistence of inflation, concerns over the fiscal deficit, and the massive issuance of government bonds that are weighing on the market.

2. Unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade: The liquidation of trades that borrowed funds in low-interest yen to invest in US Treasuries and other assets is progressing, creating pressure for US Treasury sales (rising yields) and dollar selling.

3. Impact on Mortgages: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen to 7.58%. For a $500,000 loan, the monthly payment is now approximately $3,500 (an increase of about $1,400 from the $2,100 at a 3% interest rate), causing the hurdle for home purchases to rise sharply.

3. Trends in Individual Stocks and Sectors

🟢 Stocks that remained resilient or rose

• AI and Semiconductor Related:

  • Oracle (+3.9%): Future revenue prospects from its contract with OpenAI reached $70 billion (up over 70% since the beginning of the third quarter), which was viewed as a positive factor.

  • Marvell Technology (+4.5%)

  • Broadcom / Micron: Gains of over 1%

  • Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment: Gains of 3% to 5%

• Meta Platforms (+3.2%): Announced “Muse,” an AI agent for small and medium-sized businesses. Equipped with features for Instagram/Facebook data analysis, ad integration, and connectivity with external tools (Canva, Shopify, etc.), it is being evaluated as having entered the AI monetization phase.

• Corning (+4.7%): Signed a fiber optic supply contract with AT&T worth over $3 billion.

• Clean Energy & Utilities: Power and utility-related stocks such as Bloom Energy (+10.8%) and Constellation Energy were bought.

• Netflix (+1.57%): Investment rating upgraded by analysts.

🔴 Weak/Declining Stocks

• Apple (-2.6%): Showed weak movement among major stocks.

• AT&T (-1.69%): Concerns over increased costs associated with the fiber optic contract.

• Walmart (-1.75%): Weighed down by competitor Target’s price cut announcement and a drop in consumer confidence to a low level.

• Other Mega-Tech: NVIDIA, Alphabet, and Tesla also saw slight declines.

4. FRB/Monetary Policy Trends

• New York Fed President’s Remarks: Stated that “there is no need to rush into additional interest rate hikes.”

• Background of the view: While there are inflation concerns due to the Middle East situation and expanding AI investment, the view is that there is no evidence of it spreading to broader, sustained price increases. Furthermore, since monetary policy cannot solve problems with oil transportation or refineries, a cautious stance on rapid tightening was indicated.

5. Latest Trends in Unlisted AI Companies (OpenAI / Anthropic)

• OpenAI:

• Anthropic:

  • Submitted a draft prospectus confidentially.

  • 2025 Revenue Outlook: Approximately $4.6 billion, a 12-fold increase year-over-year.

  • Infrastructure Spending: $7.33 billion (3 times that of 2024).

  • Net Loss: $42 billion reported (however, approximately $34 billion of this is due to accounting valuation increases related to future stock conversions, not actual cash outflows).

  • Risk Factors: The top two companies account for about 1/4 of revenue, many major customers are not bound by long-term contracts, and there is a statement that “powerful AI could pose risks to human dignity and survival.”

6. Future Outlook and Summary

Although there is caution due to the rapid pace of interest rate hikes, the stock market maintains its resilience, centered on AI-related stocks. We are in a phase of continuing to identify strong individual stocks while searching for where interest rates will settle.

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