VICI Properties: One Step Further Into Value Investing

In 2025, Welltower‘s (WELL) ascendant stock price made senior housing the hottest sector in real estate. WELL‘s nosebleed pricing might have been an incentive for astute analysts to look elsewhere for senior housing gold. Starting last September, foolhardy bargain-hunters might have ignored that the too-levered National Healthcare Properties wasn‘t even publicly traded and started acquiring their NASDAQ-traded preferreds at 20%+ discounts to par value. On August 5^th, National Healthcare Properties announced the redemption of all preferred shares at $25.00.

The recent activity at National Healthcare Properties (NHP) might be exemplary of how months of worry and doubt can culminate in just two days of financial victory before masochistic value investors shift focus to new bargain targets. Today we‘ll examine ways one might play one such target, the long-discounted VICI Properties (VICI).

Value in Triple Nets

There is sustained demand for Triple Net REITs because they have historically produced high and rising dividend yields. A value investor might consider that each company‘s leases will all perform to contracted language, making the issues fungible. Value might be discerned through a comparison of prices to Net Asset Value, or Funds From Operations (FFO), or dividend yield. Given that, here‘s our peer set.

The peer set was chosen because each net lease real estate company‘s Mid Cap to Large Cap size affords ample liquidity, adding to the fungible consideration. In seeking value through consideration of P/FFO, NAV, or yield, VICI would be the value investor‘s choice in January 2026. But look at the returns six months later.

At the end of 2Q, with expanded discounts of P/FFO, price to NAV, and superior dividend yield, VICI Properties arguably remains the value investor‘s choice. An early January VICI purchase, however, would leave you sitting on a -2 ¼% total return while the others delivered positive double-digit returns, on average.

Here is where the value investor has to muster courage and remember that an issue‘s unpopularity was what created the eye-popping metrics in the first place. Canadians united in a boycott of travel to the U.S. VICI‘s Vegas tenants have struggled in the travel downturn and are being acquired by new operators. Refrigerated storage was way out of favor until it wasn‘t; Americold (COLD) +26.52% and Lineage, Inc. (LINE) +27.13% first half returns. Seller‘s remorse is an emotion investors possibly have when they abandon conviction to value metrics.

It is rough when prices stay down, but I offer some potential relief for the adventurous.

Trading

The table above has an additional column that describes volatility in terms of price variance from low to high. VICI‘s price decline, of course, expands this measure of volatility, but an examination of day-to-day price movements could be enlightening. Perusing a time & sales screen on my QuoteStream reveals that 4 times this year, VICI‘s price dipped 5% or more from 2025‘s closing price and quickly rose to shrink the decline to 2% or less (for periods rising to positive returns). In August, the price has remained mired in the doldrums, down more than 5%.

Trading can be dismissed as speculation, but what I propose is informed speculation. If you feel shares are having an outsized decline on news or even no news, you can, temporarily, add to a position and sell the addition if prices normalize. Successful, active trading can enhance returns.

On Friday, VICI announced it completed new financing that would be used to repay debt due later this year. The terms of the new lending are now known, and on Monday shares declined as much as 2% to a new 52-week low. Time will tell if we‘ve just witnessed a buying opportunity.

The Loneliness of the Long-Distance Value Investor

If, like me, you have been at this informed speculation for quite some time, you know how crushing it is to give up on a value play just before the company is acquired or becomes a hot investment theme. My advice is to continuously reexamine the operational metrics, headwinds, and tailwinds. If the value proposition endures, hold your position. If the metrics are compelling and you think prices will be higher in the near future, consider the type of trading I‘ve described here.

And remember, the Canadians always return, eh?