Weekend Liquidity is Thin—US Tech Stocks Fall Again, Bitcoin Near $81,500
Announcement Date: October 17, 2026
Visiting Senior Market Analyst, Koyo Co., Ltd.
After the close of the US stock market on October 16, global markets entered the weekend. The rebound in Asia on Friday did not spill over into US stocks; the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.15%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3%, with all three major indices closing lower. AI and semiconductor-related stocks were sold off once again. Bitcoin moved narrowly in the $81,500–$81,600 range, down about 0.7% over 24 hours. The scale of forced liquidations has shrunk significantly, and excessive leverage has already been unwound. Because liquidity is thin over the weekend, even minor news can easily amplify price movements.
【Weekly Review】
The market’s focus this week was on “upside surprises in inflation indicators” and “concerns over AI valuations.”
From the start of the week through Wednesday, US September CPI and PPI data consecutively exceeded market expectations, strengthening expectations for additional interest rate hikes. Risk assets were sold off across the board. Pressure concentrated on Thursday (the 15th), with the Nikkei 225 falling over 3,300 yen at one point, South Korea’s KOSPI triggering a circuit breaker and dropping over 7%, and Bitcoin briefly falling below $80,000. Forced liquidations across the market reached a scale of approximately $1 billion, with the unwinding of long positions accounting for the majority.
On Friday (the 16th), technical buying entered the Asian markets. The Nikkei 225 rose about 1.4% to recover the 65,000 yen level, and the KOSPI rose 2.05%. However, US stocks did not follow suit; the Nasdaq fell 2.15% and the S&P 500 fell 1.1%, with semiconductor and AI-related stocks again leading the decline. Bitcoin traded in the $81,000–$82,000 range, returning to near $81,500 heading into the weekend.
Overall, the decline in crypto assets was more contained compared to the stock market, and clear buying entered near the $80,000 level. The stock market saw high volatility due to both high valuations and interest rate expectations. While leverage has been significantly unwound, a change in the underlying trend has not been confirmed.
【US Stocks: Tech Stocks Adjust Again, AI Concerns Remain】
US stocks closed lower across all three major indices on the 16th. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.15%, the S&P 500 fell about 1.1%, and the Dow fell 0.3%. Semiconductor and AI-related stocks led the decline, with Micron Technology, Intel, and Broadcom falling relatively sharply. Concerns regarding the debt burden of AI infrastructure companies and delays in monetization continue to persist. Rising crude oil prices also fueled anxiety over inflation and interest rates.
Fed Governor Warsh expressed a cautious stance at the IMF meeting in Bangkok and did not provide a clear signal regarding whether there would be interest rate hikes in October or December. While expectations for additional rate hikes within the year remain, the short-term policy path remains opaque. The US 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 5.09%.
【Asia: Friday’s Rebound Was Limited】
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 closed up 898.34 yen at 65,324.29 yen on Friday, ending a streak of consecutive declines and recovering the 65,000 yen level. Buying returned to semiconductor and AI-related stocks, but the gains narrowed toward the afternoon session.
In South Korea, the KOSPI closed up 2.05% at 5,668.05, rebounding for the first time in seven trading days. Although foreign investors turned to net buying, the scale was small compared to the massive net selling of the previous day. Semiconductor stocks rebounded, but they are currently in an adjustment phase from high levels.
【Crypto Assets and Forced Liquidations】
Bitcoin traded mostly in the $81,500–$81,600 range over the weekend, down about 0.7% over 24 hours. Ethereum also fell slightly in tandem, trading at about $2,420–$2,430. The total market capitalization of crypto assets is hovering around $2.84 trillion.
The scale of forced liquidations has clearly shrunk. Liquidations over the last 24 hours were approximately $180 million to $315 million, a significant decrease from the approximately $1 billion scale on the 15th. Long and short liquidations are generally balanced, and the clearing of excessive leverage appears to have run its course. This is not the beginning of a new trend, but a normal adjustment phase after excessive positions have been unwound.
【Market Outlook】
Friday’s rebound in Asian stocks was merely a technical correction following the extreme panic selling of the previous day and lacked strength. The fact that US tech stocks fell again before the weekend indicates that concerns over AI valuations and interest rates have not disappeared. The risk of the stock market plunging again on minor negative news remains, and investors need to continue to stay vigilant.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is holding relatively firm in the $81,000–$82,000 range. In a consolidation phase following a sharp drop, it is wiser to calmly identify buying opportunities on dips rather than chasing highs. Since liquidity is thin over the weekend, this is a phase where active trading should be avoided.
【Asset Allocation】
In the current environment, keep Bitcoin and Ethereum spot holdings as the core, targeting a total of about 50–60% of total assets. Refrain from buying at high prices at current levels, and instead look to increase holdings incrementally after confirming dips to near $80,000 or lower.
Keep the remainder in cash or highly liquid assets to prepare for macro fluctuations over the weekend and into next week. Trading should be limited to spot only; do not use leverage, and do not hold short positions or futures. Maintaining spot positions is fine, but this is not a phase where one should intentionally increase leverage.
About Koyo Co., Ltd.
Koyo Co., Ltd. is a strategic investment platform specialized in the Asian market, established in 2021 under the umbrella of the JPMorgan Group. The head office is located in Toranomon, Minato-ku, Tokyo. Leveraging JPMorgan’s global financial resources and risk management framework, the company conducts investment management focusing on four areas: crypto assets and digital assets, gold investment, trust services, and artificial intelligence (AI). We aim to create solid, long-term value with compliance as our top priority, by integrating digital innovation, traditional means of value preservation, and advanced technology at a high level. We maintain the highest standards of professionalism in every decision-making process.
Official Website: https://www.koyoq.com/
Brand Philosophy: To realize long-term asset preservation and value creation by fusing a rigorous compliance system that meets the sophisticated demands of the Japanese market with the comprehensive global capabilities of JPMorgan.
Disclaimer
The information and views contained in this article represent our analysis and opinions based on publicly available information and do not constitute any investment advice, solicitation, or legal or financial commitment. Crypto asset and precious metal markets involve high volatility and uncertainty; therefore, investors are requested to fully understand the associated risks and make final investment decisions based on their own judgment and responsibility. Past performance does not guarantee or imply future investment results.