What numbers should you look at before stock prices move? The 'Market Checklist' I record every week
Are you only looking at stock prices?
When investing, it is inevitable that your eyes will be drawn to the stock prices themselves, such as the S&P 500 or NASDAQ 100.
“It went up today,”
“The NASDAQ fell,”
“My unrealized gains increased.”
Of course, these are also important.
However, as I have continued to invest for a long time, the things I look at have gradually changed.
Even if you only look at stock prices, it is difficult to notice changes in the market.
That is because I have come to think this way.
Therefore, I check several economic indicators and market data almost every week.
I am particularly conscious of
interest rates, employment, crude oil, gold, and stock prices
.
The following are what I always check.
1. The first thing I look at is the ‘US 10-Year Treasury Yield’.
The US 10-year Treasury yield is one of the numbers I pay particular attention to.
In this record, it is
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 5.00%
.
Why do I look at interest rates?
One reason is that interest rates also have a major impact on the stock market.
When interest rates rise, it affects various areas, such as a company’s cost of capital, its relative attractiveness compared to bonds, and the present value of future earnings.
In particular, high-P/E growth stocks tend to be more sensitive to changes in interest rates.
That is why I try to look at not only
‘whether the S&P 500 went up or down’
but also
‘what the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is doing at that time.’
② Next, look at the ‘unemployment rate’
In this record, the
U.S. unemployment rate is 4.1%
.
When investing in stocks, it is easy to focus solely on corporate performance and stock prices.
However, those companies operate within the ‘economy’.
And when looking at the economy, employment is an important factor.
Is employment strong?
Is it weakening?
Is consumption being maintained?
Are there any signs that the economy is slowing down?
When considering these things, employment-related figures are indispensable.
③ Surprisingly important is the ‘crude oil price’
This time, WTI crude oil was
$95.46
.
Crude oil prices are not just energy prices.
For companies, they also relate to
-
transportation costs
-
raw material costs
-
manufacturing costs
, and more.
And a rise in crude oil prices can also affect inflation.
That is why I also check
‘whether crude oil is rising or falling’
.
This is a figure that is easy to overlook if you only look at stock prices, but it is an important check item for viewing the market as a whole.
4. I also record ‘Gold Price’
In this record,
Gold price: $4,415 per ounce
.
Since gold can sometimes move differently from stocks, I also pay attention to it in terms of asset diversification.
Instead of only looking at times when stock prices are rising,
“Where is capital flowing in assets other than stocks?”
I look at this.
This is also one perspective for grasping the market as a whole.
5. And finally, look at the ‘stock price’
After checking everything up to this point, I look at the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and so on.
In this record,
S&P 500: approx. 7,650
NASDAQ 100: approx. 29,644
is the current status.
What is important here is
not ‘buying because the stock price went up’.
Rather,
it is
why is the stock price at this level?
I look at the previous numbers to think about that.
Look at the ‘background,’ not just the ‘stock price’
The flow I am conscious of is something like this.
Interest rates
↓
Economy/Employment
↓
Crude oil/Inflation
↓
Monetary policy
↓
Corporate earnings
↓
Stock price
Of course, the market is not this simple.
You cannot explain stock price movements with just one number.
That is why I continuously record multiple numbers.
The numbers I check every week
Currently, I roughly record the following items.
Check Item Current Value
US 10-Year Treasury Yield 5.00%
Unemployment Rate 4.1%
WTI Crude Oil $95.46
Gold Price $4,415
S&P 500 approx. $7,650
NASDAQ 100 approx. $29,644
*The values are as of the time they were recorded this time.
By updating this table every week,
‘what has changed this week’
becomes easier to see.
What is important is not ‘prediction’ but ‘observing changes’
When you are investing,
‘Will it go up next week?’
‘Will it crash?’
‘Should I buy now?’
you want to predict the future.
I used to be like that too.
But, after continuing to invest for a long time, I feel that
creating a system to notice changes is more important than perfectly predicting the market
is what matters.
That is why I check the same numbers every week.
How does it compare to yesterday?
How does it compare to last week?
How does it compare to a month ago?
By continuously recording the numbers, you can see changes that you wouldn’t notice from isolated news alone.
From ‘watching stock prices’ to ‘watching the market’
When I first started investing,
‘Stock prices went up today!’
was all it took to make me happy or sad.
It’s different now.
I look at stock prices.
Next,
I look at interest rates. I look at employment. I look at crude oil. I look at gold. And then, I look at stock prices again.
I have made this a habit.
It is not to predict the future.
It is to grasp ‘what is happening in the market right now’.
What is important in investing is not reading a lot of news, but perhaps
‘deciding on the numbers to watch and observing them consistently’
.
Finally
I myself have experienced sudden market crashes many times.
What I felt each time was
the importance of having a habit of watching the market on a regular basis, rather than scrambling to find reasons after the market has already moved.
That is why I currently record weekly market data.
You do not need to memorize all the numbers introduced in this article.
First of all,
the ‘US 10-year Treasury yield’,
the ‘unemployment rate’,
the ‘crude oil price’,
the ‘S&P 500’,
and the ‘NASDAQ 100’
Even just these five are enough.
Moving from investing by looking only at stock prices,
to ‘investing by looking at the background of stock price movements’.
I believe that just having this perspective will change how you see daily news.
What is important is not a perfect first step.
It is taking that first step, no matter how small.
I sincerely hope that your wealth building
will move forward even a little
starting today.
If you found this article
even a little helpful
or useful,
I would be happy if you could
‘like’ or ‘follow’ me
or write your thoughts on social media.
It will encourage me to write future articles.
So, how did I build 83.96 million yen?
Thank you for reading this far.
However, some of you might have this question.
‘So, how did you actually build your own wealth?’
I wasn’t successful at investing from the very beginning.
When I was 27, my savings were only 60,000 yen.
That was 18 years ago.
I have experienced various types of investments, including mutual funds, individual stocks, U.S. stocks, gold and platinum, FX, and crypto assets.
Of course, not everything was a success.
I lost about 960,000 yen during the COVID-19 shock.
I bought mutual funds just because a bank employee recommended them.
I bought individual stocks based on magazine articles.
And I have the experience of getting scared and selling when the market plummeted.
Even so, every time I failed, I reviewed my investment methods and gradually created my own rules.
As a result, by age 45, my assets reached 83.96 million yen.
Looking at this number alone, it might seem like I increased my assets smoothly.
But in reality, the past 18 years have involved:
‘What I bought,’
‘how much I invested,’
‘how much profit I made,’
‘where I failed,’
‘why I sold,’
‘how I acted during a market crash’
—a process of trial and error that cannot be understood from numbers alone.
Therefore, I have summarized those 18 years into one article.
‘From 27 years old with 60,000 yen in savings to 83.96 million yen at 45. Revealing all 18 years of failures and my 8 investments’
In this note, I disclose the process of building my assets as concretely as possible, including not only successful investments but also failed ones.
“I want to start building assets from now on.”
“I’ve started investing, but I don’t know what criteria to use to think about it.”
“I want to know about real investment experiences, including failures, rather than success stories from others.”
This content is for those people.
From 27 years old with 60,000 yen in savings to 45 years old with 83.96 million yen.
I have summarized what I experienced over 18 years without hiding anything.
▼ Click here for the full record of my 18-year asset building
It’s not just about “watching stock prices,” but
“how to face your own money.”.
I hope this serves as a hint for that.