Who is Nvidia's next CEO? The top candidate is Mr. Buck of CUDA, with Mr. Haas of Arm also emerging | Choosing a successor and the impact on stock prices [November 2026]
Hello, I am Kuzu Neko, an office worker who draws 4-panel comics while studying US stocks. (↓X account)
【3-line summary】
・Conclusion: The successor is undecided. The market’s top candidate is Mr. Buck from within the company.
・Reason: Reports of an approach to Arm’s Mr. Haas have caused his probability to rise from 7% to 13%.
・Next date to watch: What will be said at the earnings call starting at 7:00 AM on 11/18?
Since Jensen Huang of Nvidia (NVDA) resigned as CEO on November 12, market interest has shifted to “who is next.” On November 13, the Financial Times (FT) reported that the board of directors had approached Arm (ARM) CEO Rene Haas as a successor. Just by his name being mentioned, Arm’s stock price fell by -4.6%, and Nvidia also closed down -2.0% (Stock Analysis). How far has the successor selection process progressed, and who does the market see as the leading candidate? I will organize the company’s announcements, reports, and the views of prediction markets separately.
📋 The company has only decided on an interim structure; the successor is undecided
・Interim CEO: CFO Ms. Kress
・Successor: Searching both inside and outside the company. Timing is undecided.
・Formal contact with candidates: Not yet made
Source: Created by the author based on NVIDIA announcements, CNBC, Reuters, and Yahoo Finance
・November 12: Mr. Huang resigned as President, CEO, and Director on the same day. Colette Kress, who has served as CFO since 2013, became interim CEO while remaining CFO. Harvey Jones became the first Chairman of the Board of Directors at the company (Company announcement).
・November 13: The board explained that it has not yet selected a firm to help with the search for a successor and has not made formal contact with any candidates. It stated, “Speculation about individual candidates, whether internal or external, is premature” (CNBC, Yahoo Finance).
・Earnings schedule: As planned, November 17 US time (around 6:20 AM on November 18 Japan time).
In other words, all that is decided now is the interim structure, and nothing has been decided yet regarding the method or timing for choosing a formal successor. In this note, I will only cover company announcements and reports related to management and stock prices.
💡 One-point summary: Just by having his name mentioned, Arm’s stock fell more
On November 13, Nvidia’s stock price was down -2.0%, but Arm fell significantly by -4.6%. For Nvidia, this was news that someone who knows Nvidia might become the successor, but for Arm, I see it as news that “their own top executive might be poached.”Choosing a successor moves the stock prices not only of Nvidia but also of the candidates’ home companies.
📈 Both Nvidia and Arm fell for two consecutive days
・Nvidia: 11/13 closing price $162.85 (-2.0%)
・Arm: 11/13 closing price $190.53 (-4.6%)
・Compared to 10/15, Nvidia -25%, Arm -22%
Source: Created by the author based on Stock Analysis data
・November 11: Nvidia $173.73 (+2.9%), Arm $203.36 (+12.1%)
・November 12: Nvidia $166.19 (-4.3%), Arm $199.78 (-1.8%). Date of CEO resignation announcement.
・November 13: Nvidia $162.85 (-2.0%), Arm $190.53 (-4.6%). Day of the FT report.
(Source: Stock Analysis. 10/15 comparison is author’s calculation)
Nvidia had moments where it fell further during trading, but it closed down only -2.0%. Although Arm reduced its losses after the report, it still closed down -4.6% (Reuters).
🎲 The market’s top candidate is Mr. Buck, with Mr. Haas emerging rapidly
・Prediction market #1: Mr. Buck from within the company (33%)
・#2 group: Ms. Kress and Mr. Haas (13% each)
・Mr. Haas rose from 7% to 13% following the FT report
In the US, there are “prediction markets” where people buy and sell whether future events will occur. On one of them, Kalshi, the following probabilities were attached as of November 13 regarding who will become the formal CEO of Nvidia by the end of 2028 (BigGo Finance, Kalshi).
・Ian Buck: 33% (42% on November 12, the day of the resignation announcement)
・Colette Kress: 13%
・Rene Haas: 13% (7% on November 12)
・Mr. Huang’s return: approx. 7% (at one point 15%)
In other words, the market currently sees an “internal engineer” as the most likely candidate, and among those outside the company, Mr. Haas is the frontrunner. Probabilities are a guideline determined by the buying and selling of participants and change significantly in a single day. The company has not acknowledged any candidates, and this has no relation to the formal decision.
⚖️ Background of each candidate and the pros and cons for Nvidia
The following is the author’s perspective based on publicly available resumes and media reports. None of these individuals have been officially confirmed as candidates by the company.
① Ian Buck (Internal): The engineer who nurtured CUDA
・Pros: Led the development of “CUDA,” the software at the heart of Nvidia’s strength. Has a persuasive vision for product direction. ・Cons: Lacks experience as a top executive at a large corporation.
② Colette Kress (Internal): Current interim CEO
・Pros: CFO since 2013. One of the people who knows the customers, business, and financial situation best, making it easier to maintain management continuity. ・Cons: Specializes in finance and has little experience in setting product or technology direction. Currently serving in a dual role as CFO.
③ Rene Haas (External): CEO of Arm
According to the FT, the board of directors has approached Haas, but he is one of several candidates, and it is not guaranteed that he will be formally offered the position or that he would accept it. Arm declined to comment, and Reuters has not been able to independently verify the report.
・Pros: Spent seven years at Nvidia and was responsible for the computer products business. Has been CEO of Arm since 2022 and led its 2023 IPO. Analysts have noted he is “one of the few external candidates who does not need to learn Nvidia’s business from scratch” (Futurum Equities, Yahoo Finance). ・Cons: Arm’s revenue is less than 1/50th of Nvidia’s, so he has limited experience managing manufacturing and supply at this scale. Since Arm also licenses its designs to competitors, any transition would likely require time-consuming adjustments.
Arm is a company approximately 90% owned by SoftBank Group. If Haas were to move, it would also impact Arm and its parent company, SoftBank Group.
④ Other external individuals whose names have been mentioned
・AMD CEO Lisa Su: Her track record of business turnaround is notable, but as the head of the biggest competitor, the hurdles for this to happen are extremely high. ・Micron CEO Mehrotra, Marvell CEO Murphy: Both have long experience as CEOs of public companies, but their businesses in memory and specialized chips differ in structure from GPUs. ・Apple’s Srouji: A leading expert in design who launched the company’s own semiconductors, but lacks experience as a top executive. (Names mentioned from an analyst perspective. Yahoo Finance)
In short, from the author’s perspective, the market would be most reassured by someone who knows Nvidia from the inside and can also speak to the technology. The top three candidates in prediction markets are all close to this profile. Conversely, I believe that if someone from a different industry comes from the outside, or if it takes a long time to decide, uncertainty is likely to persist.
🤔 How to approach the stock price considering the potential successor
・Until a successor is decided, the stock price is likely to fluctuate based on two factors: earnings and the successor. ・Internal engineers provide peace of mind, while external candidates from different industries are more likely to cause anxiety. ・Decide your position (amount and duration) in advance.
The author cannot decide whether you should “buy or sell this stock.” Here, I organize the points investors should consider using the successor selection as a factor.
・For those who already own it: The November 18 earnings report and the announcement of a successor are both factors that can cause significant movement in a single day. The day after earnings, the stock has fallen in 3 out of the last 4 times, moving by an average of about 4.8% (my previous article). This is a situation where many people check in advance whether their Nvidia holdings are too large a percentage of their assets and whether they can continue if it moves 10% in a day. ・For those considering it: Waiting for a successor to be decided reduces uncertainty, but the stock price may have already moved by the time it is decided. One approach is to judge separately as each piece of information—earnings and the successor announcement—is released. ・How to interpret the successor announcement (author’s view): If it is an internal person like Buck or Kress, “management continuity” is expected; if it is Haas, he is relatively likely to be accepted as an “external person who knows Nvidia.” If it is an outsider from a different industry or if it takes a long time to decide, anxiety is likely to continue. ・Related stocks: If Haas is chosen, Arm and its parent company SoftBank Group are likely to fall as the “loss of a top leader” is a negative factor. If it is Lisa Su, AMD would likely be the same. The name of the successor will move stocks other than Nvidia. ・Price benchmarks: If Nvidia recovers to the November 11 closing price of $173.73, the view that it is “oversold” is likely to spread; if it falls below the 52-week low of $148.80 set on November 12, the view that “the decline will continue” is likely to spread (technical analysis is a benchmark based on past price movements and does not guarantee the future).
From an employee’s perspective, in a workplace where a boss has suddenly left, the atmosphere is quite different depending on whether the next boss is “someone from the same department” or “someone from another company.” The stock price is the same; I believe that not only who comes in, but when it is decided, is important.
🎯 What to look for in the November 18 earnings call
・Whether interim CEO Kress speaks about the outlook herself. ・Whether there is any mention of the progress or timing of the successor selection. ・Whether there is any impact of management changes on customer orders.
Following the earnings announcement around 6:20 AM on November 18, an earnings call will be held starting at 7:00 AM. This time, just as important as the numbers themselves is how strongly the interim management can provide guidance for the next quarter. The highlights of the earnings figures were summarized in the previous article.
📅 Upcoming Event Schedule
・November 17 (Tue) 11:30 PM: US regular trading. Closing price on the day before earnings
・November 18 (Wed) around 6:20 AM: Nvidia earnings announcement. Earnings call starts at 7:00 AM
・Date TBD: Selection of a firm to assist with the search for a successor and the announcement of the official successor
・December 8–9: FOMC (meeting to decide on US interest rate hikes)
🧭 Signposts: Indicators and Dates to Watch Next
・November 18 morning: Will they touch upon the process and timing of choosing a successor during the earnings call?
・November 18 morning: Will the sales outlook for the October–January period exceed market expectations?
・Date TBD: Whether the successor is internal or external. If external, which company’s stock price will move?
Being a good company and having an undervalued stock price are two different things. Even if performance is strong, I believe it is likely to weigh on the stock price as long as the top management position remains undecided.
🏁 Summary: Successor Undecided, Market Already Pricing in “Someone”
Nvidia’s next CEO has not yet been decided. While the company has dismissed talk of candidates as “premature,” the internal engineer Mr. Buck is seen as the frontrunner in prediction markets, and the mere mention of Arm CEO Haas’s name caused Arm’s stock price to drop significantly. The search for a successor has become a factor that moves not only Nvidia’s stock but also the stock prices of the candidates’ current companies and their parent companies.
First, we will check what Nvidia’s interim management has to say during the earnings call on the morning of November 18.
⏱️ For Busy People: Remember Just This!
・Nvidia’s next president has not yet been decided
・Market expectations point to an internal engineer as the frontrunner, and the name of Arm’s president has also come up
・Pay attention to what the company says during the earnings announcement on the morning of November 18
In this note, I update explanations of US stocks, earnings reports, and follow-ups on predictions almost every day. Following will notify you of new articles, so I would be happy if you could follow me. I plan to publish the follow-up on Nvidia’s earnings on the afternoon of November 18.
If you have any requests for stocks or information you would like me to summarize, please let me know in the comments. I will use them as a reference.
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📖 Glossary
・Interim CEO: A person who temporarily serves as CEO until an official successor is decided
・Board of Directors: An organization that oversees company management and selects or dismisses the CEO
・CUDA: Software for using Nvidia’s GPUs. One of Nvidia’s strengths
・Earnings Call: A venue where management answers analysts’ questions after an earnings announcement
・Arm: A company that licenses blueprints for semiconductors such as those in smartphones. SoftBank Group owns about 90%
📚 Reference Materials
This article is based on public information available as of November 15, 2026 (Japan Standard Time).
・NVIDIA “NVIDIA Announces CEO Transition” (November 12, 2026) https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-CEO-Transition/
・CNBC “Nvidia: Search firm not yet selected for Huang replacement” (November 13, 2026) https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/13/nvidia-huang-ceo-replacement-search.html
・RTE (Reuters) “Nvidia approached Arm CEO Haas to succeed Huang, FT” (November 13, 2026) https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2026/1113/1599163-nvidia-approached-arm-ceo-haas-to-succeed-huang-ft/
・Yahoo Finance “Nvidia approached Arm CEO Rene Haas to succeed Jensen Huang: report” (November 13, 2026) https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/nvidia-approached-arm-ceo-rene-195019281.html
・Fox Business “Nvidia’s board eyes new candidate to replace Jensen Huang as CEO” (November 13, 2026) https://www.foxbusiness.com/fox-news-tech/new-candidate-emerges-replace-jensen-huang-nvidia-ceo
・Stock Analysis “NVIDIA (NVDA)” “Arm Holdings (ARM)” (November 13, 2026 closing price) https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/arm/
・Kalshi News “Next Nvidia CEO odds: Who replaces Jensen Huang?” (November 12, 2026) https://news.kalshi.com/p/next-nvidia-ceo-odds-as-jensen-huang-resigns
・BigGo Finance “Nvidia Interim CEO Kress Tops Internal Field as Kalshi Traders Give Huang 15% Return Odds” (November 13, 2026) https://finance.biggo.com/news/5521094c-b262-479d-ae41-81b2cb4cff96
*This article is intended for information organization purposes and does not recommend the buying or selling of any specific stock. Stock price forecasts are the author’s personal views and do not guarantee future price movements. Numerical data such as stock prices are based on various reports as of the date of writing. Please make your own investment decisions.
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