Why Is MSTR Stock Down 58% YoY Despite Strategy’s Relentless Bitcoin Buying?

Quick Read

• Strategy holds 843,738 Bitcoin worth $64.83 billion but has a market cap of only $58.6 billion, meaning the stock market values the entire company at $6 billion less than the Bitcoin on its balance sheet—even as MSTR has fallen 58% over the past year.

• MSTR’s mNAV has compressed from a 3.89x peak in November 2024 to 1.24x today. At peak, every share Saylor issued was priced at nearly 4x the underlying Bitcoin’s value, adding more Bitcoin per share for existing holders, but at 1.24x that benefit has nearly vanished.

• Strategy funded its $2.01 billion Bitcoin buy (May 11-17) 95.9% with STRC preferred shares paying 11.50% annual dividends—not common stock—because mNAV is now too low for common-stock issuance to add meaningful Bitcoin per share, and STRC has raised $5.58 billion in 2026 alone to make it the world’s largest preferred stock by market cap.

• The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and MicroStrategy wasn’t one of them. Get them here FREE.

Michael Saylor isn’t slowing down his Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) buying. Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR | MSTR Price Prediction) now owns 843,738 Bitcoin, which is worth $64.83 billion at today’s prices. However, the whole company is worth just $58.6 billion. The Bitcoin holding alone is worth more than the company that holds it. 

Meanwhile, Strategy’s MSTR stock is down 58% over the past year, even as Saylor keeps adding to the BTC position—including the $2 billion haul just last week. Here’s our review of why MSTR is down and why Saylor keeps buying Bitcoin anyway.

The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and MicroStrategy wasn’t one of them.Get them here FREE.

The MSTR Stock Is Broken, but Strategy’s Bitcoin Bet Isn’t

On the Bitcoin side, Saylor has been winning. Strategy’s holdings have nearly doubled over the past year, climbing from around 444,262 BTC to 843,738 BTC today. The blended cost basis—the average price paid across all those coins—comes to $75,700 per coin. 

The company also reports a BTC Yield of 12.6% year-to-date, meaning every existing shareholder owns 12.6% more Bitcoin per share today than they did on January 1. That’s the whole point of the strategy: accumulate Bitcoin faster than the share count grows, and existing holders benefit. On that score, Saylor’s strategy is doing exactly what he said it would.

However, the stock market has been a different ball game. MSTR peaked near $540 in November 2024 and now trades near $166, which is a 70% drop. Saylor’s personal net worth has fallen $2.6 billion over the same period, per Bloomberg.

But that’s not even the strangest part. The stock market is pricing Strategy at roughly $6 billion less than the Bitcoin on its balance sheet. That means the operations, the brand, and the future buying capacity Saylor has built around those coins are valued at less than nothing—and the gap is the entire reason for MSTR’s collapse.

Strategy’s Bitcoin Premium Is Compressing — and That’s Why MSTR Is Falling

Strategy isn’t just a Bitcoin holding company, but a machine designed to turn premium-priced stock into Bitcoin. When MSTR trades at a premium to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, Saylor can issue new shares at that premium and use the cash to buy more Bitcoin at spot. Existing shareholders end up owning more Bitcoin per share than before, even though the total share count grew.

This premium has a name: mNAV—the multiple of Strategy’s value to its Bitcoin holdings. In November 2024, mNAV hit 3.89x. Every share Saylor issued was priced at nearly 4x what the underlying Bitcoin was worth. Every dollar he raised that way added more Bitcoin per share to what existing holders already owned. That premium powered MSTR’s outperformance versus Bitcoin itself for two straight years—the stock ran from roughly $50 to $540 between 2022 and late 2024.

However, that premium has compressed by roughly 70%. mNAV today is 1.24x—down from 3.89x at peak. The slide was gradual but constant. By July 2025, mNAV was 1.91x. By November 2025, it briefly broke below 1.0x for the first time since January 2024, hitting 0.97x. It’s recovered modestly since, but the damage is done.

Three things eroded the premium. Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, and over time they’ve given investors direct Bitcoin exposure without needing MSTR as a wrapper. Copycat treasury companies like Metaplanet entered the space throughout 2025, copying Strategy’s playbook and ending its position as the only public Bitcoin proxy. 

And in the Q1 2026 earnings call, Saylor pivoted from his longstanding “never sell” stance, telling investors Strategy might sell Bitcoin to fund preferred-stock dividends. The market read all three as reasons to pay less premium for MSTR. The premium that built the empire was the flywheel’s fuel, but at 1.24x, the machine still runs—just much slower.

Why Saylor Keeps Buying Billions in Bitcoin Anyway

Between May 11 and 17, Saylor bought 24,869 Bitcoin for $2.01 billion—an average of $80,985 per coin. By the time the buy was announced on May 18, Bitcoin had dropped to roughly $76,800. The fresh batch was already underwater by about $4,000 per coin—a paper loss of roughly 5% on day one.

Across all 843,738 coins Strategy owns, the blended cost basis is $75,700. With Bitcoin around $76,800, the overall position remains profitable—by about $1,100 per coin, or roughly $900 million in unrealized gains. That $900 million is the only thing separating Strategy from its first-ever underwater portfolio. If Bitcoin closes below $75,700, the entire position goes underwater for the first time.

Moreso, Strategy’s SEC filing shows 95.9% of the $2.03 billion raised for the buy came from sales of STRC preferred stock. Only 4.1% came from common MSTR shares. A year ago, when mNAV was still above 2x, that ratio would have been reversed—Saylor funded buys mostly through common stock issued at premium.

STRC preferred shares pay an 11.50% annual dividend, but they don’t dilute MSTR common shareholders. With mNAV at 1.24x, issuing common stock barely adds Bitcoin per share for existing holders. STRC sidesteps the problem entirely.

Strategy has raised $5.58 billion via STRC in 2026 alone, making it the world’s largest preferred stock by market cap. STRC dividends now cost Strategy $1.71 billion annually. The company has $2.25 billion in cash and roughly 38 years of Bitcoin dividend coverage.

Three Things That Could Decide MSTR’s Next Move

MSTR’s recovery depends on three signals over the next quarter. First is the mNAV trajectory. The premium needs to recover toward 2x for the original flywheel to work again. If the premium stays stuck at 1.24x or below, Saylor is permanently in the STRC playbook—buying Bitcoin with high-yield preferred debt instead of premium-priced equity. 

Second is the Bitcoin price relative to $75,700, which is Strategy’s blended cost basis. A daily close below that level breaks the cushion the operation depends on. Third, the funding mix in Saylor’s next buy. More STRC means Saylor is still protecting common shareholders from dilution. A pivot back toward common stock means mNAV has recovered enough for equity raises to add Bitcoin per share again.

Saylor’s Bitcoin accumulation is still working—the 843,738 BTC is not going anywhere. But MSTR as a stock needs the premium back, and that depends on Bitcoin doing what Saylor has always bet it will: keep going up. Until then, every $2 billion buy is less about growing the empire and more about defending what’s already built.

The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks

This analyst’s 2025 picks are up 106% on average. He just named his top 10 stocks to buy in 2026. Get them here FREE.