Why Nvidia Stock Hit a Record, and the $575 Target a Mid Case Points To
NVIDIA (NVDA:NASDAQ) stock is trading at about $237 this morning, up 1.4% at 10:02 a.m. EDT on Monday, October 5, after hitting a record high on Friday. Its market value sits near $5.7 trillion, and Friday was its first record since May, per Bloomberg.
What pushed Nvidia stock to a record
Friday’s trigger was macro. US payrolls rose by 29,000 in September against the 90,000 economists expected. October Fed rate-hike odds fell to 22.7% from 24.4% the previous session, extending a decline from 64.2% a week earlier, per CME FedWatch. The Nasdaq hit a record and Nvidia closed up 1.3%.
Company news sat underneath. On September 28, Nvidia added $150 billion to its buyback authorization, bringing its remaining capacity to $235 billion, which it expects to execute through fiscal 2028. On Friday, Morgan Stanley reiterated Nvidia as a top semiconductor pick, saying “We certainly see Nvidia as well positioned, with a very undemanding valuation.”
This morning, Foxconn, Nvidia’s biggest server maker, reported third-quarter revenue up 47% to T$3.03 trillion ($95.4 billion), above the LSEG SmartEstimate of T$2.83 trillion.
NVDA valuation model: what has to go right
I ran a mid case on TIKR’s model with revenue growing 25.1% a year, a net income margin of 53.4%, EPS growth of 24.4% a year, and the P/E shrinking 3.5% a year. That is a sharp slowdown from the last year, when revenue grew 65.5% and the net margin ran at 56.9%. I kept it cooler because CEO Jensen Huang’s September 10 comment that “we could grow 70% year-over-year, and we’re confident about that” covers next year, not a decade.
The model lands at $575 by January 31, 2031. That is a 145.8% total return from the $233.95 close over 4.3 years, or 23.1% a year.
At $575, and on today’s share count, Nvidia would be worth roughly $14 trillion. The nearer marker is $6 trillion, about $250 a share by my math and roughly 5% above this morning’s price. The test is whether growth stays above the model’s 25.1% as the revenue base gets bigger.
So what is NVIDIA stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what NVDA stock could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Value NVIDIA Corporation for free→