Why Rosenblatt Thinks Sandisk Stock Is Headed for $2,400
Eighteen months ago, Sandisk (SNDK) was a newly independent company with a lot to prove. It had just split from Western Digital (WDC) and operated in an extremely cyclical industry. Moreover, investors saw its core product, the NAND flash chip, as a low-value commodity.
CEO David Goeckeler still remembers the warnings. At Sandisk’s August 13 Investor Day, he recalled investors pulling him aside to ask why he took the job at all.
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“Do you realize this industry has never made any money?” they asked him.
However, SNDK stock has returned a staggering 1,730% over the last 12 months, valuing the company at a market cap of $277 billion. Despite these outsized returns, one investment firm remains bullish on the hardware giant, primarily because of AI-related demand.
How AI Turned Sandisk Stock Into a Wall Street Favorite
NAND flash is the chip that stores data and is used in smartphones, laptops, cars, and data centers that power AI models. For years, NAND was sold similarly to other commodities. Prices were renegotiated every quarter, and industry revenue hovered around $50 billion to $60 billion.
However, AI-powered demand changed the narrative over the past 18 months. Speaking at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference on Sept. 9, Goeckeler said data centers account for more than half of the NAND market. Sandisk’s market intelligence team expects the flash market to top $300 billion in 2026 and approach $500 billion in 2027.
The payoff has been dramatic. In fiscal 2026 (ended in June), revenue almost tripled year over year to $20 billion. Its gross margins widened to 71.6%, up from 30.1% in fiscal 2025. Adjusted earnings rose to $73.76 per share in fiscal 2026, compared to a loss of $11.32 per share in 2025.
Goeckeler described the business as “a coiled spring that’s been compressed for like 25 years.”
Rosenblatt Sets a $2,400 Sandisk Stock Price Target
Rosenblatt initiated coverage on Sandisk with a “Buy” rating and a $2,400 price target, according to Investing.com. Currently, SNDK stock is trading at $1,887.
The firm argues that new AI computing platforms give NAND flash a chance to shed its commodity label. Bigger AI models and data-heavy workloads now care more about density, speed, durability, and reliable supply than about the lowest price, Rosenblatt said.
Rosenblatt also highlighted Sandisk’s BiCS8 and BiCS10 chip designs. These pack more storage into each chip while using fewer layers than some rival approaches. Sandisk has refined this technology for about 25 years alongside manufacturing partner Kioxia, the firm noted.
Using management’s own targets, Rosenblatt conservatively estimates fiscal 2030 adjusted earnings of about $300 per share. If SNDK stock is priced at 10 times forward earnings, it could surge close to 60% within the next three years.
The Contracts Powering Sandisk Stock Price
What is driving analyst confidence for SNDK stock? Mostly, it is a new way of selling chips. Sandisk calls them new business models, or NBMs. Instead of negotiating price every quarter, customers sign multi-year contracts that provide massive revenue visibility.
Chief Financial Officer Luis Visoso said at Citi’s Global TMT Conference on Sept. 8 that the first deal was signed in January. At Investor Day, Sandisk said it now has eight of these partnerships, including three U.S. hyperscalers.
The deals are worth $93.9 billion in total and run more than four years on average. Customers have backed them with $16.5 billion in financial guarantees, mostly held by outside financial institutions.
Even at the lowest agreed prices, Sandisk expects these contracts to deliver gross margins of around 80%.
“Within 2 quarters, we’ve gone from 3 months of visibility to over 4 years of visibility,” Goeckeler said at Investor Day.
That visibility supports the fiscal 2028 to 2030 plan. Management expects revenue growth in the mid-to-high teens, about 80% gross margin, 75% operating margin, and a 50% adjusted free cash flow margin.
Put simply, Sandisk expects to keep about $50 in cash for every $100 in sales. It plans to return all excess cash to shareholders. Last quarter, it generated $5 billion in FCF and spent $4.5 billion on stock buybacks.
Not everyone is convinced. At Investor Day, Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan noted that long contracts in cyclical industries often hold up in good times but falter in downturns. Visoso admitted that doubt is the biggest hurdle. “I think the key question is sustainability,” he said at the Citi event. Goeckeler didn’t flinch. “The easiest thing is to be skeptical,” he told Mohan.
He added that the biggest opportunities often sit where doubt runs deepest. Eighteen months ago, skepticism was the whole story. Rosenblatt is betting Sandisk keeps proving the doubters wrong.
Out of the 24 analysts covering SNDK stock, 19 recommend “Strong Buy”, one recommends “Moderate Buy”, and four recommend “Hold”. The average Sandisk stock price target is $2,139, indicating an upside potential of 13% from current levels.
On the date of publication, Aditya Raghunath did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com