Will Social Security checks rise in 2027? Latest COLA estimate

If you receive Social Security in Alabama, you may have seen some worrying headlines about what’s coming in 2027.

Here’s the good news: Social Security benefits are not currently scheduled for a broad cut next year. Instead, current forecasts point to another cost-of-living increase, with the latest estimate at 3.6%.

But that number isn’t official yet. The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the 2027 COLA on Oct. 14, after the government releases the inflation data used in the calculation.

So what does that mean for your monthly check? And could other Social Security rules change next year? Here’s what to know.

Social Security COLA 2027: How much could benefits increase?

The latest Senior Citizens League estimate calls for a 3.6% Social Security COLA in 2027, down from its previous forecasts of 3.8% in July and 3.9% in May.

The official COLA is based on federal inflation data and is expected to be announced Oct. 14.

Are Social Security checks being cut in 2027?

While some recent headlines suggested that cuts were coming, no across-the-board benefit cut has been approved for 2027.

The biggest change most beneficiaries are watching is the annual cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA.

Other Social Security figures could also change in 2027, including the earnings limit for people who claim benefits before full retirement age and the maximum amount of wages subject to Social Security taxes. 

How much could Social Security checks increase in 2027?

If the COLA is 3.6%, a $2,000 monthly Social Security benefit would increase by about $72, bringing the total to roughly $2,072.

A $1,500 benefit would increase by about $54, to approximately $1,554.

The actual increase will depend on the official COLA and your current benefit amount.

How Social Security COLA is calculated

Each year, Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment is based on the CPI-W, a measure of inflation that tracks the spending patterns of urban workers. But the Senior Citizens League says that formula doesn’t adequately capture some of the biggest expenses facing retirees, including healthcare and housing.

The group favors using the CPI-E, an alternative inflation measure designed to reflect spending by older Americans. 

The CPI-E has typically risen slightly faster than the CPI-W. That difference may look small from year to year, but over a long retirement, it can add up to thousands of dollars in lost benefits.

Jennifer Lindahl is a Breaking and Trending Reporter in Alabama for USA TODAY’s Deep South Connect Team. Connect with her on X @jenn_lindahl and email at  jlindahl@usatodayco.com.

This article originally appeared on Montgomery Advertiser: Will Social Security checks rise in 2027? Latest COLA estimate