If Trump Were Assassinated, What Would Happen?

The near assassination of former President Donald Trump plunged the country into a perilous situation. It’s unclear what the reaction would have been had Trump been struck lethally but as you can see, the proximity to death was a hair’s breath away.

Some estimate the final turn of his head, a 0.05 second movement was what saved his life.

0.05 Seconds from Civil War.
I made this graphic to show you how close we really were yesterday.

Trump 2024 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/tEwcepyadi

— Activist J (@Jaymacbae) July 14, 2024

The fallout from the attempted assassination left many believing that Trump would win in a landslide. That may be true, but only if he survives until election day.

A near decade of media attention, legal ranglings and indictments have failed to quash support for Trump. As one analyst observed, the protocol left is assassination, poisoning, and a truck bombing. If true, the next few months should be no period of complacency for Trump.

If those who do want to assassinate him succeed, what will the fallout be?

Key Points

• • Assassinations trigger panic and stock market declines alongside increased volatility. 
  • Stock markets briefly dipped after Kennedy’s assassination and Reagan’s attempted assassination but quickly stabilized.
  • Clear succession plans and policy continuity tend to stabilize markets quickly, at least historically.

What Happens If Trump Is Assassinated?

To have an idea what the future would be like if an assassination attempt were to succeed, we can look to the past. In the immediate aftermath of a presidential assassination, markets have historically reacted with panic. Stock prices typically drop as investors rush to sell their holdings on fears of political instability.

Expect heightened volatility with VIX, often referred to as the “fear gauge,” spiking as uncertainty about the future grows.

When President Kennedy was assassinated on November 22, 1963, the stock market was already closed for the day. The following day, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) was closed out of respect, but when it reopened, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell by about 2.9%.

Despite the initial shock, the market quickly stabilized and within a few days, the DJIA had recovered most of its losses, reflecting investor confidence in the continuity of government and the fast transition of power to VP Lyndon B. Johnson.

When President Reagan was shot on March 30, 1981, the stock market reacted quickly too, with the DJIA dropping 0.3% immediately after the news broke. However, it rebounded quickly once it was clear that Reagan would recover and there would be no immediate change in leadership.

The current climate is perhaps more polarized than the past so an attack on Trump has the potential to foment civil unrest, at the very least.

History of Assassination Attempts

• Abraham Lincoln, April 14th, 1865
• James A. Garfield, July 2nd, 1881
• William McKinley, September 6th, 1901
• Theodore Roosevelt, October 14th, 1912 (wounded)
• Franklin D. Roosevelt, February 15, 1933 (5 shots fired missed)
• John F. Kennedy, November 22md, 1963
• Gerald Ford, September 5th, and 22nd, 1975 (missed)
• Ronald Reagan, March 30, 1981 (wounded)
• George W. Bush, May 10, 2005 (hand grenade thrown but was dud)
• Donald Trump, July 13th, 2024 (wounded)

Credit: ArmstrongEconomics

What Stocks Would Benefit?

If chaos does start to take hold, demand for surveillance and security technology is likely to rise as governments attempt to keep the unrest in check. Stocks that have the potential to rise include Axon Enterprise (AXON) and Digital Ally (DGLY).

The bottom line is the assassination of a president typically leads to an immediate drop in stock prices due to panic and uncertainty but historical examples reveal that markets often recover quickly as investors gain confidence in the continuity of government.

The long-term impact on stocks depends on the economic policies of the new administration and the broader geopolitical context. With that said, the political climate at this time is so heated and divided that risks to an escalation of civil unrest are likely elevated.