Did Bearish Bets Hint At Trump Assassination Plot?

In the realm of conspiracy theories, one that ranks higher than others because of actual data available is the bearish put option bets on airlines prior to 9/11. This article in particular revealed a deep dive into what happened to the stock options of airline stocks just before the 9-11 attacks in 2001.

The study from 1990 to Sep 4 2001 analyzed the 1,000 largest firms by market capitalization each year using quantile regression. This statistical method helps understand the relationship between variables by examining different points, or quantiles, in the data distribution, rather than just the average.

Pre 9/11, data was investigated relating to the option market volume statistics for American Airlines, United Airlines, airline index stocks, and the SPX index. It revealed significant findings including a Put/Call ratio of 7.07 for American Airlines on September 10 and 105.42 for UAL on September 6, suggesting heavy trading activity in these options.

The study compared the maximum daily values of these statistics during the target period against historical data from 1990 to 2001 and it showed that the highest Put/Call ratio observed for American Airlines or United Airlines during the target period fell in the 97th percentile of historical daily data, indicating unusual trading activity.

The abnormal long put volume on American Airlines and United Airlines was much higher than average, suggesting perhaps that someone had foreknowledge of the attacks and was trading on that information.

But what does this all have to do with Trump?

Key Points

• A study found abnormal trading in airline stocks, particularly American Airlines and United Airlines, just before 9/11, with unusually high PutCall ratios suggesting potential foreknowledge of the attacks.
• In July, significant short positions in Trump’s Truth Social stock (DJT) hinted at foreknowledge of an assassination attempt. 
• The failed attempt on Trump’s life shows the importance of considering unpredictable factors in trading and avoiding over-leveraging on any single stock.

Did Someone Know Trump Would Be Targeted?

Donald Trump’s Truth Social company, a competitor to X at the time it traded as Twitter, trades publicly under the symbol DJT.

In the period from July 1 – 12, a massive short position was established. In fact, the number of shorts doubled during that time frame, according to one report, suggesting that someone or some people may have had foreknowledge that an attempt on Trump’s life would take place soon thereafter.

NEW: Soon-to-be unmasked entities bet that President Trump’s $DJT stock would plummet ONE DAY before the assassination attempt.

Shorts against the Truth Social stock more than doubled from July 1 -July 12, meaning, people or large organizations were predicting that by Monday… pic.twitter.com/axj41kmjpQ

— DiedSuddenly (@DiedSuddenly_) July 17, 2024

What’s interesting about this is short positions were established so it’s likely going to be easier to uncover which entities or persons held those positions versus put options which tend to be harder to unveil.

When Insider Trading Goes Wrong

It’s remarkable that former President Donald Trump is alive today. The simulation below highlights just how close the bullet came to striking him.

The most accurate analysis of Trump’s head motion in relation to the bullet trajectory.

[🎞️ pointconciousness. com]pic.twitter.com/cNjbxP8ZLp

— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) July 17, 2024

That final tilt of the head was enough to save his life and also highlights how if some people did think it was a “sure-thing” he would be struck, nothing is in fact ever certain.

Those shorts, if they did have foreknowledge, were truly eviscerated the next trading day when DJT rose by over 30%. In life and trading, there are no guarantees. If there’s a lesson for your own trading it’s don’t bet the farm on any one stock.

No doubt, if those who had foreknowledge built a massive short position they were extremely confident in it to bet so heavily, yet whether by providence or luck, even they were wrong. So much more should the rest of us respect exogenous variables that could affect our positions and size them accordingly.