A Flying Bet on the Future of Urban Mobility

Instead of building Jetsons-style flying cars, Archer is focused on eVTOLs, electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft.

These battery-powered machines seat four passengers, can travel at speeds up to 150 miles per hour, and are designed to fly with less noise and turbulence than a traditional helicopter.

While they won’t end traffic jams on the ground, they could give well-heeled commuters a way to skip them altogether.

Key Points

• Analysts forecast the urban air mobility market could reach $9 trillion within 25 years. 

• Until approval is secured, the business model remains unproven.

• Archer holds $1.7 billion in cash, providing runway for operations, but success hinges on both regulatory clearance and ecosystem build-out.

The Opportunity in the Skies

Archer’s aircraft, called the Midnight, is built for short hops that are long enough to make driving painful but short enough that a conventional plane doesn’t make sense. For example, getting from Manhattan to Newark Airport during rush hour can easily stretch past an hour. In an eVTOL, that same trip could take less than a quarter of an hour.

That type of efficiency explains why big institutions are taking this sector seriously. Some estimate that the urban air mobility market could grow to $9 trillion within 25 years. While Archer’s current market cap hovers around $5.7 billion, even a modest slice of that projected market could represent a once-in-a-generation growth story.

One overlooked angle: The benefits aren’t limited to corporate executives and time-starved travelers. Emergency medical services could also use eVTOLs to cut down lifesaving response times, shaving minutes, or even tens of minutes, off urban ambulance routes. That’s a market where cost is secondary to outcomes, and it could be one of the earliest real-world applications.

Big-Name Backers and Global Ambitions

Despite not booking a dollar of revenue yet, Archer has attracted heavyweight partners. For example, United Airlines has placed orders for Archer’s aircraft, seeing them as a solution for shuttling passengers between city centers and airports.

The company is also building strategic airline partnerships abroad, including with Abu Dhabi Aviation. Plans are already on the table to launch commercial operations in the United Arab Emirates next year, an environment with fewer regulatory bottlenecks than the U.S.

What Could Keep Archer Grounded

Still, the excitement comes with heavy caveats. Archer is a pre-revenue company waiting on FAA certification, the golden ticket that allows eVTOLs to carry paying passengers in the U.S.

No American company, including rival Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY), has fully cleared that hurdle yet. Until it happens, the business case remains aspirational.

Fortunately, Archer’s balance sheet is rich with almost $1.8 billion in cash and short-term investments, it has at least a couple of years of runway, assuming its current burn rate. But every month without approval eats into that cushion.

And then there’s competition. Joby is racing toward the same goal and if it secures FAA approval first, it would enjoy a first-mover advantage in major markets, potentially forcing Archer into “catch-up” mode from day one.

Lastly, infrastructure is the elephant in the room. eVTOLs need vertiports, charging stations, and traffic management systems. Those don’t exist yet at scale, meaning investors are betting on an entire ecosystem being built in time to meet demand.

Should You Buy Archer Stock Now?

At this stage, Archer is not an investment for the risk-averse. The company is years away from proven revenue, and the business hinges on regulatory approval, infrastructure build-out, and continued funding. If you’re looking for steady cash flows, Archer isn’t it.

But if you have patience and a tolerance for volatility, a small position could make sense. Archer is pitching a new category of transportation. If the company executes, today’s skeptics may well look back on these early days as the buying opportunity that was hiding in plain sight.