Can the U.S.-Canada trade war change course if Democrats win the midterm elections?

From renaming Lake Ontario as “Lake America,” to the constant whiplash of tariffs toward its northern neighbour, U.S. President Donald Trump’s antics and trade war has ratcheted up tensions with Canada.

Now, with the U.S. midterm elections approaching, people are watching closely to see whether a shift in Congress could change the course of the trade war — and what a Democratic win could mean for Canada.

And while Canadians have been feeling the effects of the trade war — and getting “elbows up” about it — what’s happening on the other side of the border?

CBC Washington correspondents Katie Nicholson and Louis Blouin join host Willy Lowry to unpack what voters in Ohio and Iowa are saying about tariffs, how the trade war could affect their lives and their votes, and what it could mean for the future of Canada-U.S. relations.

We’ve included some highlights below, edited for length and clarity. Listen to the full podcast discussion here.

Willy Lowry: Do either of you have a sense of whether a Democrat can actually win in these states? And if they were to win, does that change the course of the U.S. position on tariffs at all? 

Louis Blouin: That’s a tough one, because I think we shouldn’t assume that Democrats will reverse tariffs — or, as much as we like to, because they still need the vote of workers [and the] manufacturing sector. 

Don’t forget that Joe Biden was also a protectionist, so I don’t think it should be a dream for us that if the Democrats come into power, everything’s going to be solid, everything’s going to be perfect — I think there’s still a risk.

We have heard influential Democrats also on the Hill that had similar positions to the Republicans on certain files [and] certain goods that are going to the border. 

So, I guess it would maybe be less intense, maybe the dialogue would be easier with the Canadian administration, but are those tariffs really going away completely? I doubt that. 

Willy Lowry: That’s a really good point, and I think a lot of the Canadian assessment [has] been banking on, ‘Trump administration, two tough years to go.’ 

If you can weather that, then the future is brighter, but I think it’s going to be really hard, I think some of these tariffs are in place for the long term. 

Katie Nicholson: You can’t put that tariff toothpaste back into the bottle — once it’s out there, people are talking about it. 

I think we heard Chrystia Freeland talk about this a little bit, in some of her fears around that original agreement that was being floated out. 

Once you agree to something, once it becomes enshrined, it’s really hard to walk that back. 

Now, Canada hasn’t agreed to anything right now, but these tariffs, these rates, these levies, have all been bandied about, they’re being applied, and what happens next [is] going to really inform the crucial talks, but it’s going to be hard to walk back some of this, particularly in certain sectors.

Louis Blouin: Yep, [like] any farmers, any workers like in Ohio and Iowa. It’s going to be an interesting game.