Cathie Wood’s ARK Now Sees Tesla at $4,400 a Share by 2031
Quick Read
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ARK’s $4,400 TSLA target by 2031 relies 80% on robotaxis that have logged only 380,000 miles across seven U.S. markets.
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TSLA trades at 159 times forward earnings versus GM at just 6 times, while Rivian has fallen 37% this year amid broad EV weakness.
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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) closed at $368.06, while Wall Street’s average price target sits at $397.83, a gap of about 8.1%.
Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management sees something far larger. Its updated open-source valuation model puts Tesla at $4,400 a share in 2031 under its base case. That is nearly 12 times the current price and about 1,095% above it.
ARK is also one of Tesla’s biggest institutional holders, with 2,759,800 shares at the end of the second quarter, so this forecast comes from an owner. Its bull and bear cases are statistical outputs of a simulation and carry no guarantee.
Tesla is down 18.16% this year, and it reports third-quarter results Wednesday after the close. That sets a falling stock against a far more aggressive target, and much of that target depends on businesses that barely generate revenue today.
Robotaxis Carry Most of ARK’s $4,400 Target
ARK’s base case assumes about 8.1 million cumulative robotaxis by 2031, producing roughly $1.45 trillion in revenue and a $17.5 trillion market cap. Robotaxis account for about 80% of projected enterprise value.
The current fleet is small by comparison. On its second-quarter call, Tesla said it had driven more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised robotaxi service across six cities in two states, and management said the service covered seven markets in the US.
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Scaling into millions of vehicles requires state-by-state approvals, a safety record that holds as miles compound, and Cybercab costs low enough for profitable rides. Management already called New Jersey’s rules “a little bit disheartening,” and FSD approvals in China and Europe remain pending.
Elon Musk described the gate as reliability. Ideally, he said, “you want 99.999999% reliable.”
Optimus Revenue Rests on a Robot With No Outside Buyers Yet
ARK projects about $212 billion in revenue from selling Optimus robots to outside customers. Tesla has no meaningful external robot sales today.
Musk called Optimus “the hardest product to scale manufacturing that we’ve ever made at Tesla because everything on the robot is new.” He expects the early ramp to be “quite flat and long.”
Add robotaxis, and most of the $4,400 figure rests on two unproven businesses. Car sales, which produced $20.0 billion of Tesla’s $28.24 billion in second-quarter revenue, play a supporting role in the model.
However, a merger with SpaceX could dilute the case. ARK also says a SpaceX and Tesla merger “could take place within the next five years,” with the combined company generating $3.8 trillion in revenue and $2.7 trillion in EBIT (operating earnings) by 2031. SpaceX would contribute most of it.
An all-stock deal may not deliver a large gain for Tesla holders. In a share swap, Tesla owners would give up part of their claim on robotaxis and Optimus for a stake in a rocket business priced at its own premium.
Wall Street Sits Far Closer to the Current Price
Analysts are more restrained. Of 44 ratings, 21 are Hold, against 15 Buy, 4 Strong Buy, 2 Sell and 2 Strong Sell.
Shares sit about 26.2% below the 52-week high of $498.83. Tesla is down 16.22% over the past year, while the S&P 500 gained 15.37%.
Second-quarter results explain the caution. Revenue rose 25.5% and beat estimates, but EPS of $0.33 missed expectations of $0.54, operating margin fell to 1.4%, and free cash flow turned negative at -$1.09 billion.
The wider EV group is struggling too. Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) is down 37.39% this year, and its $19 average target implies about 54% upside, although both targets are estimates that can miss.
What Tesla Must Prove Before ARK’s Target Looks Realistic
Tesla looks expensive at this price. The stock trades at 159 times forward earnings, and ARK’s upside depends on robotaxis and Optimus working at a scale nobody has reached (we put together a free handbook on riding a mania like this without giving the gains back, here).
The bull case needs friendly regulation, a clean safety record, and outside Optimus buyers within five years. Management is spending as if it believes that, saying capex will grow “for the next two or three years.”
The bear case already shows in the numbers. Operating income fell 56.9% last quarter, and Musk’s $158 billion pay package adds dilution risk.
In Wednesday’s report, watch unsupervised mile growth and operating margin recovery. Delivery commentary matters after record second-quarter deliveries of 480,126.
General Motors (NYSE:GM) is cheaper. It trades near 6 times forward earnings, and 20 of 24 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy.
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