Crude oil down over 7%, long-term interest rates also falling. Even so, on a day when the Nasdaq fell for the third consecutive day, I, as a regular investor, organized the …

“Crude oil fell, and interest rates fell too. It should have been a tailwind for stocks, so why did the Nasdaq go down?”

Seeing the news about the U.S. market on November 2nd, some of you might have tilted your heads in confusion like this. I was one of them.

I continue to invest a fixed amount in index funds every month through the Tsumitate Investment Quota of the new NISA. In this note, I previously wrote about “why stocks fall when long-term interest rates rise” and “why stocks tend to fall when crude oil rises.” This time, it was a day when the exact opposite factors appeared. Yet, the Nasdaq did not move in the opposite direction.

In this article, after confirming what happened on November 2nd, I will organize how to view situations when factors that move stock prices overlap.

*Figures are based on reports as of the morning of November 3, 2026. Please check the latest information yourself.

1. What happened in the U.S. market on November 2nd

Crude oil fell over 7%, and long-term interest rates also fell

On November 2nd (U.S. time), crude oil futures prices (WTI, the representative U.S. crude oil price) fell by over 7% from the previous weekend. This was because it was reported that President Trump indicated he would postpone an attack on Iran until after the midterm elections, easing concerns about the spread of conflict in the Middle East.

On the same day, U.S. long-term interest rates (10-year Treasury yield) temporarily fell to 4.86%. This is the lowest level since early September.

The Dow rebounded, while the Nasdaq fell for the third consecutive day

Stock indices diverged into two.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Up $213.67 (up 0.41%). Rebounded for the first time in 3 business days

• Nasdaq Composite Index: Down 272.683 points (down 1.07%). Fell for the third consecutive day, reaching its lowest level since July 30th

According to reports, stocks of companies sensitive to the economy and those related to consumption were bought due to the drop in interest rates. On the other hand, stocks of companies related to AI and semiconductors were sold after starting the morning higher. It is reported that there is deep-seated uncertainty about whether investment in AI will truly lead to profits.

2. Why are lower crude oil prices and lower interest rates said to be positive for stocks?

Since this is the opposite of the article I wrote before, I will look back briefly.

When crude oil falls, concerns about costs and prices decrease

When crude oil falls, company costs such as fuel for transportation and factories tend to decrease. The burden on household budgets, such as gasoline costs, also lightens, making it easier for money to circulate to other purchases. It also leads to the view that if prices are less likely to rise, interest rates are also less likely to rise.

When interest rates fall, the “overvaluation” of stocks fades

When interest rates fall, the interest that can be earned from government bonds and deposits decreases. Because the competing assets become weaker, it is considered that the attractiveness of stocks relatively increases. The cost for companies to borrow money also decreases.

Looking at this alone, November 2nd was a day when it wouldn’t have been strange for stocks to rise.

3. The reason it still fell is that there is not just one factor

The factor the market cares about most on that day wins

Stock prices move based on the sum of many factors. The drop in crude oil and the decline in interest rates were positive factors. However, it is understood that for the Nasdaq on this day, the negative factor of anxiety regarding AI-related companies had a greater impact.

To use a weather analogy, even if the temperature rises, if there is heavy rain, it becomes unpleasant to be outside. If you look at only one factor and think ‘it should go up today,’ it becomes easy for discrepancies to occur.

The impact differs depending on the contents of the index

The reason the Dow and the Nasdaq moved differently is that the lineup of companies included is different. The Nasdaq is an index with a large proportion of IT and high-tech related companies. On days when AI-related stocks are sold, it is heavily affected. The Dow also includes companies related to the economy and consumption. On this day, stocks of such companies were bought following the decline in interest rates.

Even for the same ‘US stocks,’ the impression of the day changes depending on which index you look at.

The reasons for daily price movements are often added after the fact

News explanations like ‘it fell because of X’ are sometimes added as the most plausible reason after the price movement has occurred. The reasons for each individual who bought or sold that day are actually scattered. I try to take news explanations as just ‘one way of looking at it.’

For me, investing in yen, exchange rates also overlap

When you are investing in mutual funds that invest in foreign stocks in yen, both the stock price and the exchange rate affect the valuation. As of the morning of November 3rd, the dollar-yen was in the high 157 range. If the yen weakens even if stock prices fall, the decline in the valuation seen in yen can be smaller. The opposite is also true.

4. Mindset on risk: Do not try to guess price movements based on factors

‘If this factor appears, it will go up’ can be wrong

As in this case, there are days when it falls even if positive factors are aligned. Even if you look at factors and try to buy or sell in anticipation, it does not necessarily move as you thought.

Even if there are positive factors, the valuation can decrease

Mutual funds are not products with guaranteed principal. The Nasdaq fell for three consecutive days. Depending on the contents of the mutual funds you are investing in, I think there are some people whose valuations have decreased.

From now on, the results of the midterm elections will also be added as a factor

November 3rd was the voting day for the US midterm elections, and the results are expected to be known on or after the 4th, Japan time. Stocks and exchange rates might move depending on the results. However, I do not intend to buy or sell by predicting the results.

5. Summary: Rather than searching for reasons, confirm how many years from now you will use the money

I will summarize what I have organized in this article.

• On November 2nd, crude oil fell by over 7%, and U.S. long-term interest rates also temporarily dropped to 4.86%.

• While the Dow rebounded, the Nasdaq fell for the third consecutive day, reaching its lowest level since July 30th.

• Stock prices move based on the sum of many factors, and the factor that is most focused on that day has the most impact.

• If the composition of the index is different, the same factor will have a different effect.

The explanations I wrote before, such as ‘when interest rates rise, stocks fall’ and ‘when crude oil rises, stocks fall,’ are not wrong. However, those are just one factor, and even if an opposing factor emerges, it does not necessarily mean that stocks will rise.

As someone who invests through a regular savings plan, I try not to look too hard for the reasons behind daily price movements. On days when my valuation changes, instead of changing my investment settings, I try to remind myself how many years from now I will be using that money.

If you found this helpful, I would be encouraged if you could like or follow me. If you have days where you feel the news explanation does not match the price movement, please let me know in the comments, and I will use it as a reference as well.

※This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment solicitation or advice. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.