Gary Black Warns Tesla Stock Could Break Below $300, SpaceX Below $100 As AI Valuations Come Under Pressure
Well-known Tesla Inc(NASDAQ:TSLA) commentator Gary Black said Tuesday he expects the electric vehicle company’s shares to fall below $300 and Space Exploration Technologies Corp(NASDAQ:SPCX) to break below $100, citing what he called excessive valuations as AI-related stocks continue to lose momentum.
Valuation, Not Fundamentals
In a post on X, Black, the managing partner of The Future Fund, said both of Elon Musk‘s companies trade at forward fiscal 2026 price-to-earnings multiples of more than 175 times.
He expects that Tesla and SpaceX will fall below those prices in the coming weeks.
Shares of Tesla have tumbled 29.82% so far this year and lost 5.57% over the past year, while SpaceX slumped 27.67% since its historic IPO in June.
SpaceX has fallen about 46% from its post-IPO peak, wiping out roughly $1.2 trillion in market value. That’s about the size of Tesla’s current market capitalization.
Lower Forward Earnings Remain A Concern
Earlier this week, Black said the only investors surprised by the recent declines in Tesla and SpaceX shares were those who “don’t do valuation math.”
Tesla has come under pressure following its second-quarter earnings, with Black earlier saying the stock’s post-earnings selloff reflected investors taking management’s cautious approach to scaling unsupervised autonomy more seriously.
Meanwhile, billionaire investor Ron Baron expects SpaceX to become the world’s largest company by market value and projected Baron Capital‘s IPO investment could grow 20-fold to 30-fold over the next 10 to 15 years.
SpaceX Lock-Up Remains in Focus
SpaceX shares continue to trade below their $135 IPO price ahead of the company’s Aug. 6 lock-up expiration, when as many as 911.5 million shares could become eligible for sale.
Advertisement
The company is also scheduled to report its first earnings as a public company on Aug. 4.
Price Action: Tesla closed 0.58% on Tuesday at $307.44 and fell further 0.20% in after-hours trading, while SpaceX closed 2.56% higher at $116.41 and edged 0.16% higher in extended trading.
Benzinga edge rankings indicate SPCX has a negative price trend in the short, medium, and long term
The rankings show TSLA has a Momentum score in the 11th percentile and a Growth score in the 36th percentile.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo Courtesy: Sunil prajapati on Shutterstock.com
“ACTIVE INVESTORS’ SECRET WEAPON” Supercharge Your Stock Market Game with the #1 “news & everything else” trading tool: Benzinga Pro – Click here to start Your 14-Day Trial Now!
Get the latest stock analysis from Benzinga:
This article Gary Black Warns Tesla Stock Could Break Below $300, SpaceX Below $100 As AI Valuations Come Under Pressure originally appeared on Benzinga.com
© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.