Inflation came in lower than expected. Yet, long-term interest rates rose

October 1, 2026 US Market Morning Edition | Companies receiving good AI news, companies still burdened by interest rates
The focus is on memory and AI networks. However, for buying to spread across the entire market, improvements in long-term interest rates and the funding environment are also necessary.
August inflation indicators came in lower than market expectations. On the other hand, consumption remains strong, and long-term interest rates have risen. For the stock market, it was a day where both reassuring factors and burdens remained.
After regular trading hours, Micron announced strong earnings and a robust outlook for the next period. News of a large AI system order has also emerged from HPE.
However, the growth of AI demand and the increase in shareholder profits for all AI-related companies are two different things.
Companies that sell equipment, companies that purchase equipment with loans, and companies that bear the burden of rising component prices. We must consider the impact on each separately.
📅 Analysis scope: September 30 regular trading and information released up to 16:38 EDT
🕔 Manuscript analysis criteria: October 1, 05:38 JST / September 30, 16:38 EDT
🔎 Market display check time: October 1, 05:38–05:46 JST
Below, we distinguish between regular trading and after-hours news. Market prices are records at the time of creating the morning edition and are not real-time prices at the time of writing this text.
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🔓 Free section | Even with good news, it does not lead to a broad market rally
📊 Market snapshot to grasp first
The ETF values recorded at the time of creating the morning edition are as follows.
🔴 SPY: $762.63 / -0.21%
🟢 QQQ: $739.81 / +0.25%
🔴 IWM: $277.95 / -0.38%
All ETF prices are treated as provisional. Since discrepancies have been reported between the top display on the distribution page and the history column, these are not used as definitive closing prices or for setting detailed trading levels. After-hours prices are not mixed in.
In the recorded display, even though QQQ was positive, the small-cap IWM was negative. Expectations for growth sectors do not necessarily mean an improvement for the entire market.
Bonds also show divergent movements depending on the maturity.
🔵 US 2-year Treasury: 4.88% / -1bp
🟠 US 10-year Treasury: 5.29% / +3bp
🔴 US 30-year Treasury: 5.64% / +5bp
*1bp is 0.01 percentage points. The above are daily reference values recorded as the September 30 Treasury CMT, not the traded yields at the same time.
Even if short-term interest rates fall, it does not necessarily mean that the burden of mortgages or long-term investments has eased. This distinction is important this time.
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🧭 Why inflation improvement alone is not enough
If price increases are smaller than expected, vigilance against additional tightening will ease.
On the other hand, if consumption and corporate investment are strong, the need to lower interest rates quickly to support the economy also weakens.
For companies, while demand supporting sales remains, borrowing costs may also remain high.
Therefore, in the current market, we want to confirm the following two things simultaneously.
💡 Are there factors that will increase sales and profits?
💳 Can the funds to realize that growth be prepared without difficulty?
Reading the good news from Micron and HPE from these two perspectives reveals which companies benefit and which companies bear the burden.
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🔍 In the paid section, we will organize the path ‘until reaching profit’

If you only look at news headlines, price improvements and expanding AI demand are bright spots.
However, what you want to know for investment decisions is what lies beyond that.
Under what conditions will strong memory earnings spill over to manufacturing equipment?
Why does the burden on transportation companies remain even though crude oil inventories are increasing?
Why is caution regarding cash flow necessary even with large orders?

From here, we will connect five news items to specific stocks and their impact on profits.
✅ Comparison of Micron’s performance/next-period outlook and market expectations
✅ Conditions for HPE/AMD orders to turn into sales and cash revenue
✅ Impact of fuel prices that differ for refining, aviation, and logistics
✅ Confirmation items for evaluating debt-dependent AI companies
✅ Divergent conditions for changing the view on SPY, QQQ, and IWM
In addition to the magnitude of the good news, who receives the profit and where does the burden increase? We will organize that before preparing for the next regular trading session.
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🔒 Paid section | Connecting demand, interest rates, fuel, and credit to corporate profits