Netflix Price Prediction: Where the Stock Goes After a Year of Doubts

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX | NFLX Price Prediction) is $78.99 over the next 12 months. Shares trade at $67.13, so the target means 17.7% upside. We rate Netflix a buy with high confidence.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

After a year of questions, the market is pricing Netflix like a franchise whose growth is running out. What we see is a business still growing revenue at double digits, widening its margins and buying back stock at a record pace.

Sentiment and fundamentals have drifted apart, and that is why our model remains constructive even after expectations were revised hard.

A 45.92% Slide That Ignored an Earnings Beat

Netflix is down 4.87% over the past week, 8.49% over the past month, 5.09% over the past quarter and 28.4% year to date. The stock has lost 45.92% over one year. The shares are 42.5% below their 52-week high of $116.73 and just 4.7% above the $64.10 low.

Third-quarter results on October 20 show how wide that gap has become. EPS of $0.87 beat the $0.8229 estimate. Revenue of $12.874B (+11.85% YoY) came in just short of the $12.878B consensus. Operating margin widened to 34.6% from 28.2%.

Even so, shares fell 5.31% on earnings day. Netflix cut its 2026 ad revenue outlook to about $2.70B from $3.00B, and co-CEO Ted Sarandos admitted, “We do need better execution in the U.S.” Today the stock is up 3.21%.

Why Bulls See $112.90 Ahead

The bull case hits $112.90. Advertising is still early. Management said, “We are still growing our ads business over 80% this year,” and ad tiers launch in 15 new countries starting March 2027. Pricing power looks solid, with Q3 churn better than forecast both globally and in the U.S. LatAm revenue rose 17%.

Netflix bought back 63.9M shares for $4.8B in Q3 and has $22.3B left on its authorization. Analysts agree, with 7 Strong Buy and 28 Buy ratings against 15 Hold and 1 Sell.

View-Hour Worries Could Cap the Rebound

The bear case lands at $72.86. CFO Spence Neumann said, “We want to grow view hours faster. We’re not satisfied.” Netflix also lowered its FY2026 FCF forecast to about $12B from $12.5B and guided Q4 operating margin to 26%.

The FCF cut comes from a one-time Q4 real estate transaction. The margin guidance factors in roughly 120 bps from job cuts that should lower costs over time.

Netflix Earns Its Premium Over Disney and Spotify

Disney (NYSE:DIS) competes directly for streaming subscribers. It trades at 16x earnings, but its operating margin is 14.6%, about half of Netflix’s 29.49%.

Spotify (NYSE:SPOT) runs the same subscription-plus-ads model. Its Q3 revenue rose 16.32%, yet it trades at 49x earnings. Netflix sits between the two with the best margins, which makes our 24/7 Wall St. price target look reasonable and arguably conservative.

Valuation Tilts Our Model Toward Netflix Near $67

My 24/7 Wall St. price target is $78.99, rated buy with 90% confidence. What tips the scale is valuation.

The stock got cheaper while margins got wider. The case strengthens if advertising picks up again in 2027. It weakens if U.S. view hours keep stalling. At these levels, our model sees more reward than risk.

The projections rest on Netflix continuing to execute its current strategy. Faster ad monetization could drive results well above them, and continued engagement weakness could pull them lower.

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