Next Week's Market Calendar | How Will Stock Prices and the Dollar-Yen Move with US Employment Statistics, ISM, and Midterm Elections?
Key economic indicators for November 2nd–6th and 3 points of interest that investment beginners should grasp
“What kind of economic indicators will be released next week?”
“Should I avoid trading the dollar-yen on the day of the employment statistics release?”
“Does the US midterm election have any relation to Japanese stocks?”
When you are investing, you might have questions like these.
Especially in weeks where economic indicators are concentrated, stock prices and exchange rates can move more significantly than usual.
The week of November 2nd (Mon) to November 6th (Fri), 2026, is a week where the US ISM Manufacturing Index to check the economy, the US midterm elections, and the US employment statistics will be in the spotlight.
Moreover, the US will switch to winter time starting November 1st.
If you mistake the release times, there is a possibility that you could be caught up in large price movements without knowing it.
Therefore, this time, while organizing the important events for next week, we will explain these three points in an easy-to-understand manner:
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When and what will be released
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What kind of impact can be expected on stock prices and the dollar-yen
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What investment beginners should be careful about
We will explain these three points in an easy-to-understand manner.
You don’t need to perfectly predict market movements. The important thing is to be prepared in advance. 🧸
📌 Next week’s market focus: “US economy, employment, and politics”
First, to consider next week’s market, let’s briefly look back at last week’s monetary policy.
At the US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), where the results were announced on October 28th, the policy interest rate was kept unchanged at 3.75–4.00%.
The FOMC is a meeting that decides US monetary policy.
In the US, while the economy remains firm, vigilance against rising prices continues.
Therefore, data regarding the economy and employment will be important when considering future monetary policy.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan also decided at its Monetary Policy Meeting on October 30 to keep the short-term policy interest rate at 1.25%.
In addition, the BOJ decided to increase the annual pace of selling its holdings of ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) from approximately 330 billion yen to approximately 860 billion yen on a book-value basis, starting in January 2027.
A book-value basis refers to an amount based on the acquisition cost on the books, rather than the current market price.
While this does not mean that sales will accelerate immediately, for Japanese stocks, it is worth paying attention to how the market perceives this change in policy.
How the interest rate differential between Japan and the US changes in the future is also an important point to consider when thinking about the movement of the dollar-yen.
And for next week, we would like to focus on the following three points.
1. ISM Manufacturing Index
We will check whether the US economy is expanding or slowing down.
2. US Midterm Elections
Changes in the composition of the US Congress could lead to shifts in expectations and caution regarding future policies.
3. US Employment Statistics
We will check the employment situation in the US and consider its impact on monetary policy and US interest rates.
Although these three are separate events, they may influence each other through stock prices, interest rates, and exchange rates.
📅 Important Economic Indicators Calendar for November 2nd–6th
Now, let’s check the schedule for next week.
All announcement times are in Japan Standard Time. Only the date for the US midterm elections is listed in US local time.
Monday, November 2nd
14:00 | BOJ Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Full Outlook Report)
You can check what kind of outlook the Bank of Japan has regarding the Japanese economy and prices.
This will provide material for considering the future of monetary policy, so it is particularly important for those trading Japanese stocks and the dollar-yen.
Tuesday, November 3 (Holiday)
0:00 | US ISM Manufacturing Index (October)
This is an important indicator for checking the business sentiment of the US manufacturing sector.
*This corresponds to midnight on Monday, November 2.
All Day | Japanese Stock Market Closed (Culture Day)
Even if the Japanese market is closed, the US and foreign exchange markets will be active.
US Local Time | US Midterm Elections
These are the elections for the US Congress and other offices.
In Japan time, vote counting will proceed through Wednesday, November 4, and the market’s reaction to the results will be closely watched.
Wednesday, November 4
0:00 | US JOLTS Job Openings (September)
This is an indicator showing the job opening situation within the US.
We will check corporate hiring appetite and the strength of the labor market based on the increase or decrease in job openings.
*This corresponds to midnight on Tuesday, November 3.
22:15 | US ADP Employment Report (October)
This is an indicator for checking employment trends in the private sector.
It is released before Friday’s US employment report, but the results of the two do not always match.
Also, we want to pay attention to the vote counting status of the US midterm elections and the outlook for the composition of Congress.
Thursday, November 5
0:00 | US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (October)
We will check the state of the US economy, focusing on the service sector.
Note: This corresponds to midnight on Wednesday, November 4th.
8:50 | Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
The minutes of the meeting held on September 17-18 are scheduled to be released.
You can check what discussions the members had regarding the economy, prices, and monetary policy.
21:00 | Bank of England (BOE) Policy Interest Rate Announcement
The UK’s interest rate policy will be announced.
While the impact on the pound exchange rate is the main focus, it also serves as material for considering global interest rate trends.
22:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims
We will check for changes in the employment environment based on the number of people who newly applied for unemployment insurance.
November 6th (Friday)
22:30 | US Employment Report (October)
This is one of the economic indicators to pay particular attention to next week.
Depending on the results for the number of employed persons, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings, US interest rates and the dollar-yen could move significantly.
Early morning of November 7th (Saturday) | Events in the US on the 6th (Friday)
0:00 | US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Preliminary (November)
This is an indicator to check US consumer sentiment.
Since future inflation expectations are also noted, it can sometimes be a factor for fluctuations in interest rates and exchange rates.
Around 1:00 | BOJ Governor Ueda Speech (Washington, DC)
We should also pay attention to Governor Ueda’s remarks.
If there are any new statements regarding monetary policy or the outlook for the Japanese economy, they could become a factor in yen exchange rate fluctuations.
Since this corresponds to the event on Friday, November 6th in the US, those trading the US market or the dollar-yen on Friday should definitely check it.
⏰ Pay attention to the announcement times for winter time next week!
On Sunday, November 1, 2026, the US will switch from daylight saving time to winter time.
Therefore, indicators announced at 8:30 AM Eastern Time in the US will be at 10:30 PM Japan time.
Also, indicators announced at 10:00 AM Eastern Time in the US will be at 12:00 AM (midnight) the following day in Japan time.
For example,
November 3 (Tue) 0:00 = November 2 (Mon) late night 24:00
is the relationship.
Since it is the timing when the date changes, beginners should be especially careful not to make a mistake.
*The dates and times listed are as of November 1, 2026. Please check the latest information before trading as they are subject to change.
📊 ISM Manufacturing Index | Is the US economy strong?
The first thing to watch next week is the ISM index.
ISM stands for the Institute for Supply Management in the US.
It expresses the state of the economy numerically based on surveys of companies.
There are two types: manufacturing and non-manufacturing (service industry), and you can check the trends for each.
What does the ISM ’50’ mean?
When looking at the ISM index, the first thing to remember is the number 50.
However, just because it falls below 50 does not mean we can conclude that the entire US economy has entered a recession.
Also, what is important is not just whether it exceeds 50.
What the market expected the figure to be in advance is also important.
For example, let’s assume the ISM is 55.
At first glance, the economy looks strong, right?
However, if the market expectation was 57, it might be perceived as a weaker result than expected.
Conversely, even if the ISM is 49, if the market expectation was 46, it might be evaluated as the degree of contraction not being as large as expected.
However, to see if business sentiment has improved from the previous month, a comparison with the previous month’s value is also necessary.
It is important to check the comparison with market expectations and the change from the previous month separately.
If the economy is strong, will stock prices rise?
This is where it gets a bit difficult.
A strong economy can be a positive for corporate earnings.
However, if the economy is too strong, it can lead to concerns about prolonged inflation.
As a result, US interest rates may rise, which can become a burden on stock prices.
In other words, just because good economic indicators are released does not mean that stock prices will necessarily rise.
Along with the indicator results, I want to check how US interest rates and stock prices actually react.
🗳️ US Midterm Elections | Will they also affect Japanese and US stocks?
On November 3rd (US local time), the US midterm elections will be held.
Midterm elections are elections held between presidential elections.
In this election, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and about one-third of the seats in the Senate are up for re-election.
The U.S. Congress plays a crucial role in determining laws and budgets.
Therefore, if the majority in Congress changes due to the election, it could impact future policy management.
The stock market is focused on the direction of policy
What investors are particularly concerned about is what kind of policies will be pursued after the election.
For example,
Taxation
If corporate tax systems change, it may affect the outlook for corporate profits and capital investment.
Fiscal spending
Depending on the direction of infrastructure investment and government spending, the industries that benefit may change.
Regulatory policy
In sectors such as finance, energy, and IT, changes in regulations can impact corporate activities.
However, it is best to avoid simple assumptions like ‘Republican victory means higher stock prices’ or ‘Democratic victory means lower stock prices’.
The reaction will depend on what the market had anticipated and what the actual composition of Congress turns out to be.
Will it also affect Japanese stocks and the dollar-yen?
U.S. political events are not unrelated to the Japanese market.
For example, if U.S. long-term interest rates fluctuate following the election results, it could affect the dollar-yen exchange rate.
Also, if U.S. stocks move significantly, it can spill over into Japanese stocks.
However, it may take time for all election results to be known, and whether policies will actually be implemented is another matter.
It is important not to jump to conclusions about the long-term market direction based solely on price movements on election day.
🔥 US Employment Report | The Biggest Event to Watch Next Week
The US October employment report is scheduled to be released on Friday, November 6th at 10:30 PM.
The employment report is a key economic indicator for assessing the US labor market.
It can trigger significant movements not only in the stock market but also in US interest rates and the dollar-yen exchange rate.
First, let’s check the three figures to watch.
1. Non-farm payrolls
This indicator shows the change in the number of employed people in the US, excluding the agricultural sector.
It allows us to see how much companies have increased or decreased their hiring.
If employment is increasing, it serves as evidence of a strong labor market.
However, a higher number of employed people is not necessarily always better.
If the labor market is judged to be overheating, it can lead to concerns about inflation.
2. Unemployment rate
This is the percentage of unemployed people within the labor force (the total of employed and unemployed people).
A low unemployment rate generally indicates a strong labor market.
On the other hand, if the unemployment rate is rising, it may indicate that the employment environment is deteriorating.
3. Average hourly earnings
This shows how much the wages of workers have increased or decreased.
Strong wage growth supports personal consumption, but it can also raise concerns about inflation through service prices and other factors.
Therefore, not only the number of employed people but also average hourly earnings are important.
What changes depending on the results?
Here, let’s organize three possible scenarios.
Scenario A | If employment is stronger than expected
This is the case where the number of employed persons exceeds market expectations and the unemployment rate is low.
If the US economy is evaluated as resilient, US interest rates may rise due to the view that monetary tightening will be prolonged.
If US interest rates rise, it is conceivable that the dollar will be bought and the dollar-yen will rise.
However, US stocks will not necessarily rise.
While the strength of the economy is appreciated, rising interest rates can sometimes be a burden on stock prices.
Scenario B | If employment is weaker than expected
This is the case where the number of employed persons falls below market expectations and the unemployment rate rises.
Due to the slowdown in the labor market, US interest rates may fall.
As a result, it is conceivable that the dollar will be sold and the dollar-yen will fall.
On the other hand, opinions are divided regarding US stocks.
This is because while lower interest rates can have a positive effect, there are also cases where concerns about economic deterioration intensify and stock prices fall.
Scenario C | If it is close to market expectations
Even if the number of employed persons is close to market expectations, it is not necessarily a relief.
This is because the unemployment rate and average hourly wages may differ from expectations.
Furthermore, the number of employed persons for the previous month or earlier may be revised.
For example, even if the current number of employed persons is as expected, if past figures are significantly revised downward, the evaluation of the labor market may change.
What I want to pay attention to is ‘after the results’
What is important in employment statistics is not to look at the announced figures and trade immediately.
If it were me, I would first check the following points.
How much of a difference was there between market expectations and the actual results?
And, how did US interest rates and the dollar-yen react to those results?
Even if there is a significant movement immediately after the announcement, that direction does not necessarily continue.
There are times when it surges and then plummets, or when the initial movement reverses in a short period of time.
That is why I want to prioritize staying calm and confirming the situation rather than jumping into the initial price movement.
💹 Points to check for Japanese stocks, US stocks, and the dollar-yen
The economic indicators and political events introduced so far have different points of focus depending on what you are investing in.
🇯🇵 For those investing in Japanese stocks
For Japanese stocks, I want to pay attention to the trends in US stocks and fluctuations in the dollar-yen.
In particular, for export-related companies, changes in exchange rates can affect earnings forecasts.
Also, it is necessary to be careful about how the market perceives the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy.
The increase in the pace of ETF sales decided on October 30 is also one of the factors to consider for future supply and demand of Japanese stocks.
However, the change in the sales pace is scheduled to begin in January 2027.
I want to distinguish the fact that selling pressure on the stock market will not increase immediately next week.
Since the Japanese market will be closed on November 3, events that occur overseas during the holiday may be reflected in the price movements of the next business day.
🇺🇸 For those investing in US stocks
For US stocks, the relationship between US long-term interest rates and economic indicators is important.
In particular, for companies where expectations for future profit growth are heavily priced into the stock price, changes in interest rates can affect the stock price.
Also, depending on the earnings results of individual companies, stock prices may move significantly for reasons other than economic indicators.
I would like to consider the overall market movements and individual company factors separately.
💱 For those trading the Dollar-Yen
For the Dollar-Yen, the difference between US interest rates and Japanese interest rates becomes an important factor.
However, the direction of the exchange rate is not determined solely by the interest rate differential between Japan and the US.
Uncertainty due to the midterm elections and the overall market’s risk-aversion stance also have an impact.
Furthermore, a speech by BOJ Governor Ueda is scheduled for the early hours of Saturday, November 7th, Japan time.
If there are any remarks regarding monetary policy during the speech, the yen exchange rate may react, so those trading the US market on Friday should be cautious.
In particular, immediately after the release of employment statistics, one should be wary of sudden price movements or reversals.
🧸 Three things to keep in mind during a week with many economic indicators
Finally, I would like to introduce three things that I personally value during weeks with many such events.
1. Know the release times of important indicators
First, do not trade without knowing the schedule.
Especially in FX, if an important indicator is released immediately after you enter a position, the price movement may exceed your expectations.
You do not need to memorize every economic indicator.
Start by checking high-profile events such as the ISM and US employment statistics.
2. Do not jump into price movements immediately after a release
Immediately after the release of economic indicators, price movements can become volatile.
In FX, spreads (the difference between the selling and buying price) may widen, or slippage (a discrepancy between the ordered price and the actual execution price) may occur.
Even if you set a stop-loss order, it is not guaranteed to be executed at the specified price.
Especially for beginners, I believe it is important not to force yourself to chase the initial large movements.
③ Have the option to do nothing
When you are investing, there are times when you feel like you must do something, especially when the market is moving.
However, you do not always have to trade.
When price movements are difficult to read, reducing your position size or sitting out the trade are also options.
I value the mindset of not forcing an entry unless the target price or conditions are met.
While aiming for profit is important, it is even more important to protect your capital in preparation for the next opportunity.
Summary | Next week is about “preparing” rather than “predicting”
For the market from November 2 to 6, 2026, the following three points will be the major focus.
📌 ISM Manufacturing Index
Check the current state of the US economy.
📌 US Midterm Elections
Check for changes in the policy environment due to election results and how the market perceives them.
📌 US Employment Statistics
Check the strength of employment and its impact on US interest rates and the dollar-yen.
Next week, various factors such as the US economy, employment, and politics will overlap.
However, the important thing is not to predict the results perfectly.
Be prepared to respond calmly regardless of the outcome.
Do not just look at the economic indicator results; check the differences from market expectations and the actual reactions of stock prices, interest rates, and exchange rates.
And if the movement differs from the conditions you had in mind, do not force a trade.
Sitting out is also a sound investment decision.
Let’s continue to avoid overextending ourselves next week and stick to our own rules. 🧸
Which economic indicators or events are you paying attention to next week?
Please let me know in the comments if you’d like!
I hope this article helps you think about your investment plan for next week.
Likes and follows also encourage me to write future articles.
See you in the next article!
📚 Reference Materials
*This article is based on information as of November 1, 2026. Economic indicators and speech schedules are subject to change. Additionally, this article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend the purchase or sale of any specific financial product. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.