[November 13] Today's Stock Market Report: Nikkei Average Rebounds with a 322-Yen Gain; TOPIX Rises for the 5th Consecutive Day

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US NVIDIA ‘CEO Huang officially resigns & after-hours stock rise’ leads to a temporary surge of over 1,000 yen, Advantest production capacity moved up by one year, strong earnings from Sumitomo Mitsui FG and Mitsukoshi Isetan, and ASICS hits limit low. No blind spots in the AI bubble.

• Nikkei Stock Average Closing Price : 61,142.35 yen (+322.99 (+0.53%))

• TOPIX : 3,941.57 points (+4.24 (+0.11%))

• Trading Value (TSE Prime) : 8.048249 trillion yen

• Number of advancing stocks: 877 / Number of declining stocks: 619 / Unchanged stocks: 55

• External market environment: US long-term interest rates rise, crude oil prices remain high, NVIDIA CEO Huang announces resignation, leading to a temporary 11% drop followed by a slowdown in decline and a move to positive in after-hours trading.

• Notes: Fast Retailing and Recruit were bought. Gains in game-related stocks such as Konami Group and Nintendo were notable. On the other hand, SoftBank Group (SBG) ended 5% lower. Terumo and Mercari, which announced earnings the previous day, fell. Defense-related stocks like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries were sluggish due to speculation about defense spending cuts.

1. Market Close: Excessive uncertainty recedes following NVIDIA CEO resignation announcement! Morning session saw a temporary rise of over 1,000 yen, but gains narrowed in the afternoon session ahead of the weekend.

On Friday, November 13, 2026, the Tokyo stock market, ending the week as the final peak of domestic corporate earnings announcements for the April-September period arrived, saw buying prevail from the opening as the turmoil surrounding US NVIDIA, which shook the market the previous day, reached a certain resolution. The previous day, the Nikkei Stock Average had fallen due to reports of the possibility of CEO Jensen Huang’s dismissal over personal issues (allegations of an affair with a Chinese industrial spy), but NVIDIA subsequentlyannounced ‘the official resignation of CEO Huang (the CFO will concurrently serve as interim CEO)’.Although NVIDIA stock was sold off by as much as 11% in the US market yesterday, it subsequently narrowed its losses, and investor sentiment improved as the stock price turned to gains in after-hours trading.

Carrying this momentum into the Tokyo market, buying gathered in semiconductor-related, SaaS/software, and game-related stocks in the morning session, andthe Nikkei Stock Average’s gain temporarily exceeded 1,000 yen, with scenes approaching the psychological milestone of 62,000 yen.

However, as with the previous day, the momentum of buying weakened rapidly upon entering the afternoon session. Amid lingering uncertainty regarding macro factors such as rising US long-term interest rates and high crude oil prices, a wait-and-see attitude strengthened as investors refrained from actively chasing higher prices ahead of the weekend. The decline of SoftBank Group and Ibiden into negative territory also acted as a drag, leading to a narrowing of gains toward the market close. The closing price of the Nikkei Stock Average was61,142.35 yen, up 322.99 yen from the previous business day (+0.53%), rebounding for the first time in two business days and recovering to the 61,000 yen level.

Meanwhile, the TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index), which is composed of a broad range of stocks on the TSE Prime Market, also saw its gains narrow in the afternoon session, but the closing pricerecorded 3,941.57 points, up 4.24 points from the previous business day (+0.11%), achieving a small but 5th consecutive day of gains.

The trading value on the TSE Prime Market was8.048249 trillion yen (estimated trading volume of 2.54092 billion shares), ending the week’s trading while maintaining the milestone of the 8 trillion yen level.

The most significant feature of today’s market was that while uncertainty regarding the external environment remains, domestic demand and defensive sectors were favored, while at the same time, the stock prices of individual companies were dramatically sorted based on the gap between announced earnings results and prior expectations. By industry, 19 out of all 33 sectors rose, with the service industry (+2.9% gain), retail, and warehousing/transportation sectors taking the top spots. Individually, Advantest rebounded by 2% after announcing at an investor IR event that it would move up its plan to increase production capacity for SoC test equipment (to a scale of 10,000 units per year) by one year. Also bought were Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, which announced upward revisions to full-year forecasts, dividend increases, and share buybacks during the session; Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings, which revised its forecast upward due to strong inbound demand; and Asahi Group Holdings, which maintained its full-year plan despite overcoming the negative impact of a system failure. On the other hand, Asics, which had seen a significant 38% increase in operating profit for the January-September period, was sold off to a 14% limit-low due to the reaction to a 30% rise in its stock price over the last two months and a slight miss of market expectations, making it a day that symbolized the severe contrast in this earnings season.

2. The mechanism of the market rebound and the afternoon slump: The relief from Nvidia’s “CEO Huang resignation & after-hours rebound” and weekend restraint due to macro uncertainty

Why did the Nikkei Average, which sank into negative territory due to the Nvidia scandal yesterday afternoon, show a sharp rebound of over 1,000 yen at one point this morning, and why did it shrink its gains to less than a third in the afternoon? We will uncover the market fluctuation mechanism explained by Chisato Takatori, Senior Strategist at Daiwa Securities.

① The relief brought by CEO Huang’s surprise resignation and the “after-hours turnaround from an 11% drop”

The biggest epicenter that drove the Tokyo market into negative territory yesterday (the 12th) afternoon was the scandal surrounding Nvidia founder CEO Jensen Huang (allegations of an affair with a Chinese industrial spy) and reports of a resolution for his dismissal.

After that, the situation moved rapidly toward US time. Nvidia announced that CEO Huang will officially resign, and the company’s Chief Financial Officer (CFO) will concurrently serve as interim CEO as part of a new management structure.

In yesterday’s regular trading on the US stock market, selling flooded Nvidia shares due to the shock of the charismatic founder’s departure, and there was a scene during trading hours where it plummeted by as much as 11%. However, the company quickly announced an interim structure to make governance function, and buying to correct the oversold state reduced the losses toward the close. Furthermore, Nvidia’s stock price turned into positive territory (rose) in after-hours trading following the end of regular trading.

By confirming this “sluggishness after an 11% drop and turnaround to a rise in after-hours trading,” investor sentiment in the Tokyo market improved dramatically. Buying flooded in from the opening to recover yesterday’s losses, and the Nikkei Average showed a strong development, rising over 1,000 yen at one point in the morning and eyeing the 62,000 yen mark.

② Why did it shave off nearly 700 yen of its gains in the afternoon? (Macro weights and the stall of SBG and Ibiden)

However, the buying momentum that pushed the index up over 1,000 yen in the morning did not continue in the afternoon.

The background to the market’s sluggishness in the afternoon.

First, weekend factors and caution regarding important events next week. Although the initial shock of CEO Huang’s resignation has eased, Nvidia’s quarterly earnings announcement is coming up next Tuesday, November 17, and there is a growing stance of wanting to see how future management strategies and the outlook for next-generation products will be discussed under the interim CEO structure led by the CFO.

Second, the rise in US long-term interest rates and the high level of crude oil prices, among other factors, mean that the uncertainty regarding the future of the external macro environment has not been completely wiped away.

As a result, the heaviness of SoftBank Group, which started high in the morning, and Ibiden, which handles GPU package substrates for Nvidia, gradually became noticeable, and both stocks fell into negative territory toward the afternoon, becoming a weight on the Nikkei Average. Investment funds shifted from chasing the upside of high-tech stocks to domestic demand/defensive stocks and individual stocks with good earnings that are less affected by the external environment.

3. Market internal structure: “TOPIX 5-day winning streak” supported by SaaS, gaming, and domestic demand, and cautious stance remaining in some GPU-related areas

Examining the inside of today’s market, where the Nikkei Average rebounded by 322 yen despite the afternoon slump and the TOPIX achieved its 5th consecutive day of gains, reveals the diversity of the main players supporting the market.

Top positive contributors (3 pillars supporting the market)

・SaaS/Software-related stocks: Supported by domestic corporate demand for DX investment, buying led growth stocks that are unrelated to hardware noise.

・Gaming/Content-related stocks: Powerful IP companies that are not swayed by overseas interest rates or semiconductor personnel changes drove the index.

・Advantest & Domestic demand stocks with good earnings: Advantest (+2.0%), which announced an early increase in production capacity, and Isetan Mitsukoshi HD and Asahi Group HD, which announced good earnings during the session, supported the market.

Top negative contributors (stocks that lost momentum after a strong start)
・SoftBank Group: Lost momentum after a morning rally, becoming a top negative contributor.
・Ibiden: Turned lower due to selling from investors wanting to assess Nvidia’s new management structure and next week’s earnings.
・Asics: Sold off to a limit low (-14.3%) after announcing earnings during trading hours, weighing down the index.

What is noteworthy is the trend of the TOPIX for this week (November 9–13). After recording its third-largest crash in history last Friday, November 6, the TOPIX achieved “five consecutive days of gains (rising for 5 straight days)” from Monday to Friday this week. Even as the Nikkei Average was swayed by the volatility of certain high-priced stocks, it has been proven that real demand buying has consistently continued to flow into Japanese stocks as a whole (TOPIX).

4. Sector Trends: “19 out of 33 sectors rose”! Services (+2.9%) and Retail led the way in domestic demand-driven defensive gains, while Non-ferrous Metals and Machinery saw adjustments.

Looking at the stock price indices by sector, “19 out of 33 sectors rose” while “14 sectors fell.” Conscious of external risks such as rising U.S. long-term interest rates and higher crude oil prices, stable growth sectors supported by domestic demand dominated the top of the rankings.

[Rising Sectors: Strength in Domestic Demand Driven by Services (+2.9%) and Retail]

While concerns surrounding Nvidia have eased for the time being, domestic demand and defensive sectors supported by earnings stability and domestic demand were favored amid lingering uncertainty such as rising U.S. long-term interest rates and higher crude oil prices. In particular, the top-gaining Services sector (+2.9%) saw strong buying in SaaS and software-related stocks, while in the second-ranked Retail sector, the strong earnings of Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings, mentioned later, brightened the outlook for department store and retail stocks as a whole.

[The Truth Behind Falling Sectors: A Pause in AI Components and Individual Sharp Declines in Other Products]

On the other hand, the top of the 14 falling sectors included Non-ferrous Metals, Machinery, Precision Instruments, and Glass & Ceramics. Following the rapid buying since the beginning of the week, pre-weekend position adjustment selling emerged in data center-related wire and component stocks ahead of next week’s Nvidia earnings. Also, the decline in the 4th-ranked Other Products sector was largely driven by the limit-low decline of Asics, which will be discussed later, dragging down the sector index.

5. Notable Individual Stocks

We will thoroughly explain five notable stocks that showed dramatic price movements today following the final climax of earnings announcements (announcements during trading hours such as 1:00 PM–1:30 PM) and yesterday’s IR events.

① Advantest: +2.0% rise

While SoftBank Group and Ibiden sank into negative territory amid the turmoil surrounding Nvidia, semiconductor test equipment leader Advantest rose strongly by +2.0% (+625 yen, closing at 30,610 yen) compared to the previous day, solidifying its position above the 30,000 yen mark.

At an investor IR event held on November 12, the company announced a plan to significantly increase its production capacity for “test equipment for SoC (System-on-Chip)”, which integrates multiple semiconductor functions into a single chip, to a scale of “10,000 units per year.” The market was surprised by the bullish policy of moving up the previously stated “achievement target by 2028” by one year to “achieve it by 2027.”

Against the backdrop of fierce demand growth for generative AI GPUs and independently developed custom ASICs (Application-Specific Integrated Circuits), it has been confirmed that the company is steadily proceeding with the expansion of its supply capacity at a faster pace than initially anticipated. The market’s conviction in further earnings growth from the next fiscal year to the following fiscal year has strengthened at once, serving as a powerful catalyst that concentrated real demand buying, blowing away the uncertainty of the external environment.

② Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316): +0.1% rise (+5 yen, closing at 3,275 yen) / Absorbed selling on news exhaustion after announcing a “full-year upward revision, dividend increase, and share buyback” at 1:30 PM!

As a symbol of today’s earnings climax, Sumitomo Mitsui FG, a member of the megabanks that attracted market attention, announced its first-half earnings at 1:30 PM (13:30) in the afternoon session, and after intense trading, it managed to close in positive territory.

Although it was temporarily pushed down by selling immediately after the earnings announcement during trading hours, it quickly rebounded and finished the day in positive territory. The background to this is a powerful shareholder return stance that combines an upward revision of the full-year plan, a dividend increase, and a share buyback.

The consolidated net profit for the April-September period (first half) announced by the company was up 7.5% from the same period last year, landing roughly in line with prior market expectations. What attracted attention was the simultaneous announcement of an upward revision of the full-year plan, an increase in the dividend forecast, and a share buyback. The main reason for the upward revision was the improvement in the core earning power of “net interest margin (the difference between lending rates and deposit rates)” driven by rising domestic interest rates, as well as an increase in gains from the sale of policy-held shares, confirming that this is extremely high-quality profit growth.

Because the market’s prior expectations were very high, “selling on news exhaustion” by short-term players took precedence immediately after the 1:30 PM announcement, and there was a scene where the stock price temporarily sank into negative territory. However, institutional investors and others who calmly evaluated the steady progress of earnings and the solid return stance immediately stepped in to buy the dip. The stock showed a powerful price movement, rapidly filling the decline and ultimately being bought back into positive territory by the close.

3. Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings: +2.5% gain, rising for the 5th consecutive day

Department store giant Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings saw its gains expand after announcing strong financial results at 1:00 PM, achieving a 5-day winning streak with a +2.5% increase (+45 yen, closing at 1,839 yen) from the previous day.

The strong financial results are driven by the powerful momentum of the two major engines of capturing robust inbound demand and thorough expense structure reform.

The company’s consolidated operating profit for the first half (April-September) achieved a significant 19% year-on-year increase, surpassing the prior market consensus forecast. Given the outlook that the current strong momentum will continue into the second half, the company has announced an upward revision to its full-year earnings forecast.

The first pillar supporting this strong growth is the continued excellent performance in inbound (foreign visitor) sales. The company has further raised its sales forecast for overseas customers by 16% year-on-year, successfully capturing demand centered on high-value-added products. The second pillar is the progress of the meticulous expense structure reform promoted within the company. By not just focusing on top-line (sales) expansion but also thoroughly reducing fixed costs and improving operational efficiency, the gross profit margin has improved. This is a high-quality financial result where the dual wheels of sales growth and a lean cost structure have meshed firmly, leading to a significant improvement in profit margins.

4. Asahi Group Holdings: +3.2% gain

Beverage and beer giant Asahi Group Holdings was heavily bought in the afternoon session following its third-quarter (January-September) financial results announced after the morning close, rising 3.2% (+56 yen, closing at 1,805 yen) from the previous day.

Although the cumulative operating profit for the January-September period showed a 45% year-on-year increase, it fell slightly short of market expectations. However, what the market valued most highly was that the full-year company plan was maintained (not revised downward). There were some concerns that the impact of the system failure that occurred last year would weigh on the company’s performance, but by absorbing those negative effects and maintaining the full-year plan, a strong sense of relief spread among investors.

5. ASICS: Limit down -14.3%

The most severe market reaction today was to sports shoe giant ASICS. Immediately after the 1:00 PM earnings announcement, a flood of sell orders arrived, and the stock ended the day at the limit-down level, down 14.3% (-700 yen, closing at 4,180 yen) from the previous day.

Despite achieving a significant 38% year-on-year increase in operating profit for the first nine months (January-September), the stock was sold down to the limit-down level in the afternoon session immediately after the announcement, due to the reaction to overly high market expectations and supply-demand factors.

In the financial results disclosed by the company at 1:00 PM, it was confirmed that the core earning power itself remains solid, as gross profit margins improved significantly due to continued strong sales both domestically and internationally, as well as the optimization of sales prices through price hikes and high-value-added strategies. The fundamentals are by no means negative, and the business environment itself has not deteriorated.

Nevertheless, the main reasons for the stock price plummeting to the limit-down level were, first, that the actual results fell slightly short of the market consensus forecast which had been rising in anticipation of high growth, and second, that the market’s strong expectation for an upward revision of the full-year earnings forecast was not met, remaining unchanged. The biggest trigger was
supply and demand, as the company’s stock had surged by about 30% in the last two months on expectations of strong performance. With a slight failure to meet expectations being presented to an overly overheated stock price level, profit-taking and disappointment selling by short-term investors rushing to reduce their positions erupted all at once, leading to a sharp collapse in price.

6. Future Outlook: Next Tuesday the 17th is the decisive battle: ‘US NVIDIA Earnings (New Management & New Product Vera Rubin)’ and the EPS-raising market led by domestic ‘40% upward revisions’

Today’s Tokyo market saw the Nikkei Average rebound by 322 yen and the TOPIX rise for the 5th consecutive day, marking the end of the April-September earnings announcement season.

Regarding the market development from next week (the third week of November) onwards, we provide an outlook from two perspectives: the ‘US NVIDIA earnings’ which hold the fate of global tech stocks, and the ‘summary of domestic corporate earnings (the power of a 40% upward revision ratio)’ which has now concluded.

Next week’s biggest event: November 17th (Tuesday) ‘US NVIDIA’ earnings announcement

[Focus Point 1: Explanation regarding the ‘new management structure’ after CEO Huang’s resignation]
Charismatic founder CEO Huang has resigned, and the CFO will concurrently serve as interim CEO. The biggest focus will be on what clear explanations the company provides regarding the future management structure, governance, and maintenance of customer relations during the earnings briefing.
[Focus Point 2: Data center sales and progress of the next-generation product ‘Vera Rubin’]
In terms of performance, if we can confirm that the strong growth in sales for the core data center business is continuing, and that the shipment and sales status of the new product ‘Vera Rubin’ using the next-generation architecture is progressing smoothly, the turmoil over Mr. Huang’s resignation will be completely dispelled.

Summary of domestic April-September earnings: Strength reaching a ‘40% ratio of upward revisions to full-year plans’

As of this week, the announcement of April-September (interim) financial results for major domestic companies has concluded.

The percentage of companies that upwardly revised their full-year company plans in this earnings season reached [about 40%], which is a clearly higher ratio compared to the same period last year.

Following the conclusion of upward revisions by companies, analysts at securities firms will begin to raise their earnings forecasts in earnest from next week onwards. As a result, the ‘EPS (earnings per share) outlook’ for Japanese stocks as a whole will rise further, and a development that strongly supports stock prices from a valuation perspective is expected.

Portfolio Strategy to Win in the ‘Earnings Evaluation Phase’ After the Earnings Season

The greatest truth proven by today’s market and this week’s dramatic developments is that ‘Japanese stocks (TOPIX) have risen for five consecutive trading days, overcoming all external storms such as last weekend’s crash and political and corporate scandals in the U.S. At the root of this is ‘the overwhelming earning power of Japanese companies’, with about 40% of companies deciding to revise their full-year forecasts upward.’

Just as ASICS hit a limit low despite a 38% profit increase, there are stocks that are sold off heavily on the day of their earnings announcement due to short-term discrepancies in expectations. However, the fact that Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group immediately absorbed ‘sell-the-fact’ pressure after announcing upward revisions, dividend increases, and share buybacks; that Isetan Mitsui Holdings rose for five consecutive days due to strong inbound demand; and that Advantest moved up its production capacity expansion by one year, all show that there are no blind spots in the growth stories of Japan’s core companies.

If the smooth progress of the next-generation ‘Vera Rubin’ product and the stability of the new management structure are confirmed in the U.S. Nvidia earnings report next Tuesday, November 17, the last remaining caution regarding semiconductor stocks will dissipate. In the domestic market, analysts’ upward revisions of target prices and EPS for the 40% of companies that have raised their forecasts will become a new driving force for the market.

Without being swayed by short-term price movements, we have reached a phase where we should confidently face the year-end rally led by EPS upgrades by building a balanced portfolio that includes core semiconductor stocks like Advantest, which has moved up its production capacity expansion; Isetan Mitsui Holdings and service/SaaS stocks that have achieved upward revisions through inbound and domestic demand; and mega-banks like Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, which are promoting dividend increases and share buybacks with rising interest rates as a tailwind.