Semiconductor Stocks Plunge, US Interest Rates Hit 5% Range | Notable US/Japan Stocks and Gold/Silver Outlook (11/14)

Introduction

Good morning. On this Saturday morning, November 14, I will look back at the market up to Friday, November 13, the final trading day of the week. This week, semiconductor stocks were significantly shaken by the announcement of NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s resignation, and US long-term interest rates rose to the 5% range. Meanwhile, the Nikkei Stock Average rose significantly for the week, while gold and silver fell sharply for the week, pressured by expectations of interest rate hikes. Next week, NVIDIA’s earnings and the listing of the US AI company Anthropic are scheduled, making it a highly anticipated week.

Key Points for US Stocks

On Thursday the 12th, the most recent day for which closing prices are finalized, all three major indices fell by approximately 0.4%.

• S&P 500: 7,592.40 (-0.4%)

• Nasdaq Composite: 25,366.09 (-0.4%)

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 52,297.09 (-0.4%)

On the 12th, NVIDIA announced Mr. Huang’s resignation as CEO and the appointment of CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO. Selling of semiconductor stocks continued in trading on Friday the 13th, and toward the end of the session, the S&P 500 was down around 0.8% and the Nasdaq was down over 1%. According to reports, selling spread to semiconductor-related stocks, with AMD down about 10% and Broadcom down about 6%. Additionally, it is reported that HSBC has downgraded its investment rating for NVIDIA.

Interest rates are also a weight. The US PPI (Producer Price Index) for October rose 0.3% month-on-month, slightly below the expected 0.4%, but it continues to show high growth at 6.5% year-on-year. The US 10-year Treasury yield temporarily rose to the 5.1% range, and according to the CME’s FedWatch (a tool that calculates the probability of interest rate hikes from interest rate futures), it is reported that a 0.25% rate hike at the December FOMC is priced in at nearly 90%.

Individually, Modine, a thermal management equipment company reported to be considering an acquisition by Samsung Electronics, rose significantly. By sector, high-tech and real estate were weak, while defensive stocks (less susceptible to economic conditions) such as consumer staples showed relatively firm movement.

Key Points for Japanese Stocks

The Nikkei Stock Average on Friday the 13th rebounded, closing at 61,142 yen, up 322 yen from the previous day. There were moments in the morning session when it rose by over 1,000 yen, but in the afternoon session, AI-related stocks struggled to gain momentum, narrowing the gains. For the week, it rose by approximately 3,707 yen. The TOPIX also ended the trading day in positive territory.

By sector, services, retail, and warehousing/transportation rose, while non-ferrous metals, machinery, and precision instruments fell. Among individual stocks, price movements due to earnings and news were notable.

• Recruit Holdings: Rose about 5% following an upward revision of its target price

• V Technology: Hit the daily limit high, favored by first-half earnings and large overseas orders

• Toridoll Holdings, Oisix ra daichi: Rose following earnings results

• Asics: Hit the daily limit low as third-quarter earnings failed to meet market expectations

• Terumo, Sumitomo Rubber Industries: Fell following downward revisions to earnings forecasts

• SoftBank Group: Fell about 5%

In the final stages of the earnings announcement season, fortunes are diverging even within the same sector depending on the content of the earnings. Attention is focused not just on the numbers themselves, but on how full-year outlooks and order trends are being evaluated.

Gold and Silver Price Movements and Outlook

Gold and silver prices fell significantly this week. NY gold futures (December delivery) closed at $3,889.05 on the 12th, down $111.45 from the previous day, and hit a 52-week low of $3,857 during trading hours. Prices hovered around $3,900 on the 13th as well, with reports indicating a weekly decline of approximately 5.6% for gold and 6.7% for silver. Silver has dropped to around $50 per ounce. Domestic retail prices at Tanaka Kikinzoku (announced on the 13th) were 22,302 yen per gram for gold (down 356 yen from the previous day) and 299.53 yen for silver (down 6.05 yen).

The main reasons for the decline are the rise in long-term interest rates due to expectations of US interest rate hikes and the strength of the dollar. Since gold is an asset that does not generate interest, it is generally considered to be at a relative disadvantage when interest rates rise. Inflation concerns stemming from rising crude oil prices are also a factor strengthening expectations for rate hikes.

Regarding the future, UK-based Sucden Financial indicated in a report at the end of October that while gold could test the $3,900 level leading up to the December FOMC, it may recover by early 2027. Additionally, Germany’s Heraeus pointed out that gold purchases by central banks worldwide are continuing at a pace exceeding that of 2025, suggesting that such public sector buying may provide a floor for prices. In the near term, the movements of US interest rates and the dollar are likely to be the primary focus.

Upcoming Notable Events

• November 16 (Mon): Japan’s Q3 GDP preliminary figures

• November 17 (Tue): US October retail sales, Nvidia earnings (early morning on the 18th, Japan time)

• November 18 (Wed): FOMC minutes (from the October meeting), earnings from major US retailers like Target

• November 19 (Thu): Anthropic’s scheduled Nasdaq listing

• November 20 (Fri): Japan’s October national CPI (Consumer Price Index)

• December 8-9: FOMC (focus on whether there will be a rate hike)

• December: Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting (some private think tanks are predicting an additional 0.25% rate hike)

Summary

This week, the change in Nvidia’s top management and the rise of US long-term interest rates into the 5% range weighed heavily on the market, particularly on US semiconductor stocks. While Japanese stocks rose significantly over the week based on earnings results, gold and silver fell sharply due to rate hike expectations and a stronger dollar. Next week, in addition to Nvidia’s earnings and Anthropic’s listing, movements in US interest rates are likely to impact both the Japanese and US stock markets as well as gold and silver. Precisely because we are in a phase of high volatility, it is important to stay calm while checking the background of the news.

Compiled list of securities accounts and investment books

For those just starting to invest, I have created a page summarizing how to choose a securities account and books that have been helpful for my studies. It also explains how to choose a new NISA account and how to invest in gold and silver.

https://obusshinya-gif.github.io/kabu/

※The linked page contains advertisements (affiliate links).

This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend the buying or selling of any specific stocks or products. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.